IA - Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register: TIE

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is toast then, if IA is competetive, justlike Reynolds could be in trouble in 2022 against Scholten. OH, IA and collectively have picked the Prez since 1992

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time.

I never liked the IA-MO analogy (albeit for different reasons), but relative to the "nation as a whole", IA is about as (if not more) Republican this year as MO was in 2008. In any case, I maintain that IA isn’t as competitive as FL/GA/AZ, and if Trump loses it, Biden's EV total will be at around 400.


LOL Dukakis, Bill Clinton, AL Gore and Obama won IA and Chet Culver and Tom Harkin were elected Dems before Kim Reynolds and Joni Ernst were elected in 2014.

Dems are competetive due to the fact Dems have 3/4 seats at the Congressional level and are winning all by 2 and 4