NC-SEN 2020: Tar Heel Tillis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state to watch is Mnt, Bullock may run for Senate, since he isnt a frontrunner for Prez or VEEP.

Since he is to the left on SSM and isnt Harris on gun control

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Would be funny if this seat flips again. This seat in particular does not like re-electing one term incumbents.

This seat was Jesse Helm's seat for eons.

And 2010 broke the curse of the other [though I'd argue Edwards would've defeated Burr if he had stayed in rather than run against Kerry]

Edwards may have won in 2004, but the scandals and the GOP wave would led to him losing by Landrieu or Pryor margins in 2010

Edwards scandal came out in 2008 long after his reelection, but he would have lost narrowly to Burr in 2004.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously this vote doesn't matter but Pelosi can call for a revote. The only democrat this vote hurts is Doug Jones who will lose anyway.

It does make him look like an unprincipled hypocrite though. Maybe he thought it would help him in a state where nearly Republican is an unprincipled hypocrite.

All blue avatars think Jones will lose. There were 3 statewide elections in which Gillum, Abrams and Espy lost in the South. White Dems are doing well in gubernatorial contests in 2019. Blue avatars said Jones was gonna lose in a special

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Challenges to R's will emerge once there is resolution to Ptez and it looks like Harris v Bernie/ Bernie 2.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Totally, agree, now, than yesterday, Dems will target IA and NC than TX.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeff Jackson probably runs but its a still a year away to primaries

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its a better pickup in case no one challenges Collins or Ernst. But, clearly IA is still a pickup opportunity

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Beto or Tim Ryan is on ticket Dems will take IA and win with w72; IA, OH and Va is very much 270 strategy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, Jackson is not a strong candidate, he is a decent candidate and a hotshot. Trump will narrowly carry Tillis here, but make no mistake it will be competitive, and Jackson may be our "new Kay Hagan" on a weak bench,

This will be targetted, once Jackson announces.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA, NC, GA, AZ and CO are Dems path to majority,  with ME too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeff Jackson can run in 2022

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What are her chances of knocking out Tillis ?

It's good, due to fact NC is a purple state and Biden is winning it. Cunningham is the best recruit

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

@DANNT, DTC, gracile

Oops. Why did you have to spoil my fun? Anyway I still say Tillis wins because 2020 will be better than 2018.

If the PVI is like it was in 2012 70M to 66M for the Dems, Tillis wont survive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2022 probably is a better year for Senate Dems, in NC, he will run against Burr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, ratings at this stage, arent end all be all, AZ, CO, GA, KS and NC are Dems path to majority, without ME or AL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even I, who has been a proponent of the 279 blue wall had to relent on it. KS, AZ, CO, GA, ME and NC are in play and so is KY-Gov, www.electionprojection.com, is my guide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato has changed this to tossup and Dems lead in AZ, CO, KS, NC, enough to win the Senate. Its Trump being impeached and polarizing that makes Dems confident and a 2012 feel to this election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its not Lean R, Sabato changed it to tossup. Gov Cooper will carry Dem Cunningham over the top

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I love Schumer but his recruiting for this has had some bizarre choices. Like a 37 year old (good looking) state senator who joined the army after 9/11 and fought in Afghanistan is about as perfect of a choice as a dem could want for this race. And don’t get me started on the freakin Vice Admiral in Iowa that also isn’t getting encouragement from Chuck

Meanwhile he lobbies for McGrift to enter and waste millions of dollars in Kentucky. He is a total joke and the best asset Republicans could've hoped for in holding the Senate.

Dems are doing well in polls in 2019 in KY, no one predicted that Beshear or Stumbo would be statistically tied in KY-GOV races and likewise, JBE is doing well, GOP were supposed to sweep all three Gov races.

Dems have to abandon IA-Sem, Ernst will win a spend $$$$ in KS, KY, TX amd AK in winning the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tillis is stuck at 40 percent approvals, same place Kay Hagen was, Roy Cooper is on the ballot as well, this seat is a pure tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I used to think this was more winnable for Democrats than GA-S, but I’m not so sure anymore with NC's Democratic trend lagging behind GA's, Cunningham unable to pull away in the primary, and Tillis less and less likely to significantly underperform Trump. Still a Tossup/Tilt R, though.
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Roy Cooper on the ballot will energize Dems to turnout for whomever Dems nominate. This seat hasnt elected a 2 term incumbent since Jesse Helms. Flipped from Dole to Hagen, Hagen to Tillis, and Tillis has to deal with Cooper and his popularity,  Dems will win AZ, CO, IA. ME and NC, at least 5 seats in a wave. Especially,  since Biden will be the nominee

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is a Bellwether,  in 2008, Dole lost her Senate race, in 2014, Tillis won in a route. Tillis was on the wrong side of impeachment and is on the wrong ticket when Cooper will win 55-45%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt Hilary and he isnt gonna be reelected and Tillis is suffering from the problems of Burr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA will go to run offs anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

After MT and CO and ME we have AZ, GA, IA and NC. We dont know which others are gonna go D to give Ds 50 seats

McSally, Ernst and Tillis are statistically tied with Ds. Kelly isnt winning by 15 pts either. Hickenlooper isnt winning by 11, more like 4