2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose (user search)
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  2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose  (Read 74274 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: December 14, 2018, 02:25:56 PM »
Kyl was only a fill in for the Kavanaugh confirmation: they knew Collins would vote for him, not Murkowski, so they needed an extra vote.  McCain's death gave the GOP the 50th vote to confirm Kavanaugh. Now, they want another GOPer so it won't be an open seat come 2020.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2019, 02:27:35 PM »
Kyrsten Sinema is a blue dog as well.

His support for Toomey wasnt correct, but Dems from AZ are this way.  He has dedicated his life to gun control since Giffords accident. McSally is just as weak as Trump. She can lose
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2019, 03:31:40 PM »
We are in a new paradigm, where the economy isnt affecting voters, but income inequality, guns and sociak issues are affecting people's vote. Also, states arent gonna vote the same way in downballot races as opposed to gubernatorial and presudential races.

Dems like Kelly, Grissom and Abrams can win statewide races eventhough their state is more conservative at federal level.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: February 14, 2019, 09:25:56 PM »
Dems will win AZ, with Kelly, just like Dema won in red states in the House in 2018.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2019, 05:12:58 PM »
McCain was the big story in AZ and since he is gone, AZ is going blue. As a result, Senate race is Lean D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2019, 10:44:25 PM »
The only one that could have beaten Kelly was Ducey, but he wasnt gonna appoint himself
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2019, 10:07:22 AM »
2020 is favorable since GA, IA, ME and NC are tossups and CO and AZ are gains. McConnell needs to be defeated, he wont pass election security bills
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2019, 09:42:37 PM »
Dems are gonna win AZ and CO right off the bat. Collins, Tillis and Kobach of KS are next
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #8 on: January 08, 2020, 11:26:34 PM »
AZ is not an R state anymore, it's a Sunbelt like NV, NM, CA, CO and HI
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2020, 06:13:36 PM »
Trump is gonna win AZ, Kelly will win by the same margin as Sinema
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #10 on: January 16, 2020, 05:28:23 PM »
This race was over before it got started, if Dems win AZ, all they need is ME and another state to solidify their majority: GA, AL, KS, TX, WV etc
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2020, 08:22:27 AM »
Mark Kelly is a beloved astronaut and much stronger than Bill Nelson and will win in 2020 and again in 2022
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2020, 01:45:13 PM »
Looks like Dems are leaving Bollier and Cunningham out and targeting AZ, CO, ME and MT. Cunningham has not been seen during this coronavirus and there is no internal polls done on KS. Regardless, that gives Dems the majority after losing AL as excepted
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #13 on: April 16, 2020, 07:11:44 AM »
McSally was ahead in the polls and was within the margin of error before the Pandemic,  but once the Pandemic began, Latinos
heavily went towards Mark Kelly, went from 3 to 10 points. The Rs had intentions on winning this race since no R has been elected Prez without carrying AZ
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2020, 06:37:53 PM »
Yeah she is down likely 5 to 8 pts, but she hasnt lead in a single poll since Nov 2019
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #15 on: June 06, 2020, 05:12:56 AM »
We all must remember that Labor day is when polls really matter and Trump and the Rs arent totally out of it being down 5 to 8 points in a VBM election, not in person voting, we must expect anything. Having said that, the Rs are running on no plan on an economy rebounding from a Recession, Rs are disadvantaged in running without any concrete proposals except for Obamacare repeal and tax cuts for the wealthy. This will be debated between Trump and Biden in the Fall.

But, the Rs arent totally out of it, they can still win
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2020, 02:16:12 PM »
Appointing McSally backfired on the Rs, now they are saying that McSally was appointed so that Ducey gets elected, yeah right. This flies in the face of evidence that McSally was leading in October 2019 and Trump cannot win reelection without AZ. Not only that, there is no guarentee Ducey wins in 2022
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2020, 10:49:48 PM »
We are gonna have to watch this seat, McSally should not be understimated
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 90,188
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2020, 10:09:25 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on October 18, 2020, 10:06:23 AM
How the hell did she win twice in a swingy House district if her political instincts are this terrible?

McCain was there to hold the fort for most Rs in the state, just like Teddy Kennedy held the fort down on the Judiciary, but since they aren't here,no one lives forever with terminal illnesses, then D's and Rs alike have to come to terms without them
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