IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread (user search)
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  IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread  (Read 64831 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: December 08, 2018, 01:25:30 PM »
Ernest and Collins and Gardner is part of the 272-279 crescent, like I said before, she isnt the unbeatable titan or impregnable Grassley, she narrowly beat Braley.

Bullock, Scholten can very well pull it off in Mnt and IA. Rs are too confident about her winning
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2018, 07:09:36 PM »
Of course its Likely R, there's no candidate. She isnt unbeatable. SMC is the only female R unbeatable this election cycle of 2020
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2018, 06:14:56 PM »
He probably is waiting on Biden, Ernst will go down if Biden is the nominee and Vilsack runs
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2018, 08:11:54 PM »
Vilsack was in the Obama cabinet and close to Biden. With Biden or an established candidate like Booker and Tim Ryan (who wants out of House due to GOP gerrymandering) will beat Joni Ernst
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2018, 09:53:05 PM »
Scholten is the best bet but he lost to King.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2018, 11:03:13 AM »
Vilsack definitely has a chance, at least he isnt like Bullock who flipped and he flopped and may lose to Fox anyway in Gov race. This is why he is undecided.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2018, 12:10:52 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on December 21, 2018, 11:44:47 AM
I REALLY hope Vilsack either doesn't run or loses the primary.

Whom is your candidate, Scholten who lost to 👑 King?

We don't know whom is the best bet until polling shows
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2018, 02:19:19 PM »
Quote from: Chief Justice Keef on December 21, 2018, 01:26:11 PM
Oh my god, stop. Enough with these dinosaurs coming out of the woodwork and subsequently blowing senate races for Democrats.

The GOP party have dinosaurs: Pat Roberts*retiring, Lamar Alexander*retiring, Wicker, Inhofe, Shelby and McConnell.  The Dems had Strickland, Beshear who were much more conservative than Vilsack
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2018, 10:15:42 AM »
Biden, Trump and Hilary are the biggest dinosaurs of all, running for prez over 70.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2018, 02:51:04 PM »
Vilsack is taking a wait and see approach. He's close to Biden
 Dems do have candidates, Vilsack isnt Strickland. Who ran the worst campaign. Dems should have a primary
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2019, 08:42:29 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2019, 09:11:26 PM by olowakandi »
Quote from: Polarized Elastic WWC Libertarian MT Treasurer on January 10, 2019, 06:30:38 PM
Ernst has better numbers than Tillis, McSally, Perdue, Collins, and even Sullivan (who’s considered safe for some reason). Also, Trump’s at 45/52 (-7) in this poll.

That said, Ernst is two or three 99 county tours away from locking it up. Wink


You made the Tester analogy and Tester wasnt supposed to have a competitiveive race and he did. The same thing can happen to Ernst. Hubbell came within 2 to beat Reynolds. If it wasnt for Dems disarray with Boulton, Dems could have won. IA is a tossup state.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2019, 09:40:35 PM »
Scholten says he wants to take on King, again, who else aside from Vilsack will run? You saw what happened to Patty Judge who got trounced.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2019, 10:29:11 PM »
Ernst is a compassionate conservative and in more in line with Capito, she would lose to Scholten, if he runs.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2019, 03:07:06 PM »
She is certainly moving to the middle and moderating her image.  She is associating herself with Capito, who unlike Collins, was unaffected by voting for Kavanaugh.

We need polling to see if she is vulnerable
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2019, 05:45:30 AM »
She may be defeated under right circumstances. Should Scholten or Vilsack run she will be defeated. But, she's making things tough for them by moderating her image.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2019, 08:43:40 PM »
Ernst is a moderate in a swing state and put on the Capito sleeve. The only candidate that can win IA in a GE against Trump, is Bernie Sanders
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2019, 03:46:14 PM »
JD Scholten should run, we shall see.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2019, 02:24:21 AM »
Ernst can be reelected and Dems can win state with Kamala-Brown ticket. Dems dont necessarily have to win all 3, VA, IA or OH, but those three have predicted the right winnet in 4/5 elections.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2019, 03:38:50 PM »
IA is clearly a competetive state and Ernst like Gardner won an upset
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #19 on: June 04, 2019, 06:56:00 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1327605001

Teresa Greenfield says she plans on Senate run
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2019, 12:29:20 PM »
AZ, CO and NC and a Roy Moore nomination in AL, will give Dems the Senate,  at anyrate
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2019, 03:44:44 PM »
Quote from: kongress on June 06, 2019, 02:57:29 PM
Don't worry, the Democratic establishment can triage the Senate because their anointed boy, Biden, will make McConnell come to the center through reasoned talks and some good ol' bipartisanship (and as we know, the B in LGBT stands for bipartisan so both parties who are involved in these Very Serious Talks are clearly LGBT-friendly).

This recent news may throw a wrench in their plans, though...



IA is part of 272 map, like Va, Bullock endorsed Greenfield.  Dems arent triaging race. Bradley was favored and he lost to Ernst
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2019, 08:33:39 PM »
IA isn't a longshot, it's part of 272 and Ernst was a longshot against Braley at first and she won. We have to defeat her before she becomes entrenched like Grassley
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2019, 03:42:14 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2019, 04:25:43 AM by Stephen Curry is Awesome »


Senate map



Presidential map
 

Iowa is a battleground state
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,958
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2019, 10:07:27 AM »
Dems are campaigning for President right now in IA. IA according to Morning Consultant can flip. It's not Ohio
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