OR-Gravis: Tied race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They haven't showed the ME polls yet, I suspect its a tight race as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Buehler is a really good candidate but I still think Brown wins.

We very well may have different candidates winning in red and blue states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is very similar to the ME and RI race. Non polarizing GOP candidates running tied or slightly ahead of Dems.  I can see an upset in the making

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

For crying out loud Atlas. Democrats aren't losing Oregon in 2018.

Dems can lose OR

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes they can, ME, RI and CT have pragmatic GOPers tied or slightly ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

Everyone thinks that Janet Mills and Kate Brown are shoe ins. As MD, MA and NJ have shown us, different states vote differently in Prez elections.  And Moody is not hard liner.  I predict CT, RI, ME or Or may flip.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown won fairly handily in 2016. She is probably in decent shape for re-election, even if it's by a smaller margin. I'm not too worried about this one.

Shes in a very similar situation as Janet Mills, and its a pickup opportunity for GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

There are currently Republican Secretaries of State in Washington and Oregon and a Republican Treasurer in Washington. There haven’t been Democrats elected statewide in SC, GA, TN, OK, TX, UT, AZ, KS, SD, WY and ID in decade or more.

I do Predict Normal trends wont hold this year; however AZ, TN, KS were states where 2006 wave was, with FL ripe to flip with GRAHAM, who is K. Sinema😁 While Walker can hold on and Brown or Mills can lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

There are currently Republican Secretaries of State in Washington and Oregon and a Republican Treasurer in Washington. There haven’t been Democrats elected statewide in SC, GA, TN, OK, TX, UT, AZ, KS, SD, WY and ID in decade or more.

I do Predict Normal trends wont hold this year; however AZ, TN, KS were states where 2006 wave was, with FL ripe to flip with GRAHAM, who is K. Sinema😁 While Walker can hold on and Brown or Mills can lose

Graham=Sinema?  What?  Is that what you're saying?

She's appears to be centrist woman

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump at 43% approval? A Clinton +6 sample? Yeah... forgive me if I´m not buying this. Much as many Atlas posters get hard at like the idea of Oregon voting Republican for some reason, it´s not happening, much less in a year like this. Brown will be fine, and will win be at least mid-single digits.

Mills, K Brown are vulnerable. Dems are winning and Red states like TN and GOPers are winning in blue states; however OR and ME arent MN and NM and IL solid Dems states. Left wing GOPers can win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kate Brown can be upset here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are doing fine in FL, MN, TN. This year GOP can take some blue states and Dems can take some red states, its an anti-incumbent mood😁

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D, Brown wins by 5-10.

You can have upsets happenimg GOP winning in NV and OR and Dems winning in SD and FL. This is that type of year