🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Final results

Matt MacFarlane (Green) 1,226 (48.9%) +14.1
Carmen Reeves (PC) 964 (38.5%) -21.7
Gordon Sobey (Liberal) 272 (10.9%)
Karen Morton (NDP) 40 (1.6%) -1.3

Green gain from PC.

Turnout: 58.9% (-9.1)

Congrats to the PEI Greens. I think this makes them tied with the Liberals in terms of seats now - who gets to be the Official Opposition?

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

Darn, beat me to it. Having lived in Winnipeg for all of 7 months I'm declaring this seat Lean NDP but an enticing target for the Conservatives and they're going to want to show their strength in a working-class suburb. Bumps up to Likely NDP (if not Solid) if somebody with the name Blaikie is running again.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Today's the Durham byelection.  And given how the Cons are polling in general, the biggest shock would be if they miss a majority--though I wouldn't discount that likelihood...

Maybe I'm too plugged in to angry Twitter people, but I think Jivani is going to underperform expectations a bit. Nowhere near enough to lose, but somewhat similar to what happened in Oxford last year. Maybe I'm underestimating just how much the tide has turned against the Liberals since then, but I'd take the under on whether the Tories crack 50%.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

While letting the Tories widen the gap in a seat like Milton is undoubtedly an embarrassment for the Liberals, some OLP people are claiming that federal dynamics made it hard for them to turn out voters, because not many people are interested in voting for someone who calls themselves a Liberal right now due to its association with the federal government (maybe they should change their name? Ontario United, maybe?) But if this really is a significant factor, the silver lining for Ontario Liberals is that by 2026, this may no longer be an issue.

Indeed, Ontarians love to elect different parties in Ottawa and Queen's Park.

Wouldn't it be in Ford's interest then to call a snap election?

High risk, high reward. He could kneecap Crombie if handled right, sure, but remember what happened to David Peterson.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Looking like a PC pickup in Newfoundland

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

All this Toronto-St Paul's NDP talk has me wondering, has anybody read the book their 2015 candidate wrote about his campaign where his only asset was his famous name and failure was all but certain? I wonder if that could give any context to what they might be doing in even direr straits.