New Jersey 2008

[Conan]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

But he wouldn't. Giuliani would win Bergen and Somerset, but he'd lose Burlington and maybe even Ocean and all of South Jersey while only running 1% or so ahead of Bush 2004 in North Jersey. Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, these are not counties that will vote as strongly for Giuliani's weird liberal-authoritarian social policies as they did for Bush, and nor will Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May. He'd do best in the wealthy areas, but strength in Somerset, Morris and Bergen can't make up for losses elsewhere.

Every republican wins Sussex with 64%+. Dems at least get 34%. Kean won it last year by the same margin or around what Bush won. People up here don't vote ideology, they vote party.

[Conan]

Rudy is the type of Republican that voters in NJ used to be comfortable voting for, and I think they still would be. 

Like Tom Kean, Jr.

Kean was a poor canidate in a anti-Republican year, He would have stood a chance had the Foley thing not happened.

That's one of the most ridiculous reasons I have read on why he was defeated.

[Conan]

Let's get some things straight about New Jersey, past and present.

(1) The New Jersey Democratic Party is not weak.  The only thing that matters in New Jersey is money, and Democrats are flush with it.  And unlike their feuding days of the 1990s, Democrats are remarkably united despite there being a different political boss for North and South Jersey.

The unity between the governors office and the legislature among dems isnt that strong. As for the whole state, the democratic party is very strong.

(2) No New Jersey Republican is going to lose friggin' OCEAN County any time soon.  It is easily the most Republican shore county -- more so than Monmouth, Atlantic, and even Cape May.

I don't know if you're saying Atlantic is a GOP county but if you are, no it is not.

(3) Mark Foley was a MAJOR reason why Tom Kean Jr. lost -- even Wally Edge of PoliticsNJ backs me up on this point.  Dispute it if you will, but Kean's lead instantly evaporated the moment the Foley scandal broke.  He very well may have lost anyway, but Foley was KEY in Kean's numbers ending as badly as Forrester's.

That is completely ridiculous. Absolutely funny and unfounded. HAHAH

(4) Giuliani wouldn't get 40 in Hudson and certainly not in Newark-dominated Essex.  But I'd expect him to easily carry Bergen and to strongly compete in Middlesex, Passaic, and Mercer, which is why he'd carry the state.  He'd probably run strong enough to carry Burlington, too -- it's really not that Democratic a county.

Depends who he runs against. It's safe to say however, he won't get Mercer or Middlesex.

(5) It is absolutely mindblowing that someone could think that Bush would be a stronger candidate than Giuliani in New Jersey.  My f-ing God, do you not understand the concept of the favorite son?  Commuters love the guy -- and why shouldn't they?

Giuliani isn't the same man he used to be. His flip flopping and support of the Iraq war would assure he will not likely win in NJ against Obama, Hillary, or Edwards.

Here are some match ups:

Giuliani: 46
Clinton: 54

Giuliani: 48
Obama: 52

Giuliani: 47
Edwards: 53

[Conan]

Again, there was no 9/11 bounce.  I'll go into greater detail if necessary, but I've already cited my case numerous times before.  Just thought I'd remind everyone...

Much of New Jersey, Long Island, Rockland, and CT, especially SW CT, what do they all have in common???  Their was without a doubt a 9/11 bounce in NJ.

Although it is true Bush got a 9/11 bounce, he should have been trashed over it. That's what's so troubling.