NJ-Senate 2008: Christie will Not Run

[Conan]

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/topstories/index.ssf?/base/news-23/116829510530590.xml&storylist=

That leaves the possible republican candidate list very short.

[Conan]

So, will it be Kean, Jr. or Forrester who they drag out and prop up again?

Some people say State Assemblyman Baroni.

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/senate2008.htm
Those are some possible republican challengers.
Yea, GOP def. wasted 7 million here. You could have held VA and MT with that. Maybe even more.

[Conan]

Remember at this time 2 years ago, people like Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey said they weren't running.  And now they're sitting in Washington.  So don't put too much stock into these things saying that Rybak and Christie won't run - they might.

Of course this is New Jersey, so the Dems could nominate some satanic version of Michael Jackson and still win handily.

Well the point is in the article that if Christie remains as US Attorney through early 2008, he won't have the money to run and since he has decided to stay until then at least he has effectively killed his candidacy (he'll need around 15,000,000 to run a credible campaign.) because under law US Attorneys can't run for office while keeping their jobs.

[Conan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

Nice job on that.

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/senate2008.htm
Those are some possible republican challengers.
Yea, GOP def. wasted 7 million here. You could have held VA and MT with that. Maybe even more.

That list is really old. You can take Christie, Murphy (probably running for Governor), and Leiter off that list. Kean is too damaged to run in 08, hed never win. If he couldnt beat Menendez hes not beating Frank. I also doubt that LoBiondo will run for the Senate.

THey have like 30 lists made updated. I think that was their last one which came out after the elections.

[Conan]

I think a Kean re-run is most likely, although I agree that he basically can't win.  Other than Kean and Christie there are no prospective candidates with a prayer.

Kean Sr. maybe, but he won't run and he'd lose anyway. Bill Gormley possibly?

[Conan]

I think a Kean re-run is most likely, although I agree that he basically can't win.  Other than Kean and Christie there are no prospective candidates with a prayer.

Kean Sr. maybe, but he won't run and he'd lose anyway. Bill Gormley possibly?

Senior is not running, and Bill Gormley is definitly not running. No way Gormley wins statewide.

The sad thing is with the NJGOP is that Dems may actually pick up seats in our state elections this year and they are slightly similar to the 109th congress. NJ just doesnt have anyone to replace some with. Pathetic.

[Conan]

Republicans should not even try this time.  New Jersey always lets us down in the end.

Just like with girls, the best thing to do for New Jersey is just to ignore it... it'll come crawling back, begging for attention after we invest in more reliable states like Louisiana or Iowa.

 Good post. In more political science-y terms, the NJ Dems have really got winning down to a science in that state. They know how to turn their people out in just the write numbers to win by a reliable 10%. The only x-factor is candidate recruitment - who will they get to run? Andrews, perhaps, or Codey or Pallone?

It's Lautenberg.

[Conan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_United_States_Senate_election%2C_2008

Nice job on that.

Thank you sir.

It would be great if LoBiondo ran; the Democrats would probably take his House seat and he'd lose the Senate race!

I doubt Kean, Jr. would want to lose twice and screw any political future at the House (what district does he live in?) or maybe Governor (though he probably can't win that either). Most likely the GOP will end up running some joke similar to Faso or Spencer.

Kean lives in NJ-07, where Stender nearly upset Ferguson this year. He's the State Senator for the 21st district, which is mostly contained in the 7th. Interestingly, and I did not know this, he has never been elected to a seat, only reelected; he was appointed to fill a vacancy in the State Assembly in 2001, and then appointed to fill another vacancy in the State Senate 2003. He was reelected in 2003 also. The next election is in 2007.

You can't be reelected without ever having been elected!

[Conan]

I call it reelection if you were in the seat before the election happened. It does give a mild incumbent effect, though not as strong as otherwise. Menendez was reelected, not elected, in 2006, even though he hadn't been elected before (unless you want to make up a word for the fine distinction between having been elected previously and holding the seat but not having been previously elected).

I know what you mean but it's tricky wording!

[Conan]

I will be supporting Baroni. He has proven that he can win in Democratic territory, look at the returns from his district, it is amazing.

Gormley is hinting at a US Senate run, but he will go nowhere, and rightfully so. And no, LoBiondo's district would not turn Democratic when he retires.

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

[Conan]

How about Christane Todd Whitman?

She'd be trashed. Too much baggage.

[Conan]

How about Christane Todd Whitman?

She'd be trashed. Too much baggage.

What about the baggage of your man Lautenburg and besides being corrupt as humanly possible seems to be a big plus for a canidate in New Jersey elections.   

Lautenberg has never been called corrupt by anyone, republican, democrat or anyone else. Besides we all know baggage only counts when you're a republican in NJ.

[Conan]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

People don't associate him with corruption, he's probably the most respected Republican in our delegation.

[Conan]

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

The next Congressman from the Second district will be Nick Asselta, who has strong ties to the AFL-CIO and who is very popular with a large base. Whelan will not run for Congress, Van Drew likely will.

Don't be so sure Whelan will win the Senate, he got off easy in 2005 because the Republicans dropped the ball by not exposing his actual record, he won't be so lucky this time.

The republican party of NJ is incompetent. Nick Asselta may have strong ties to the AFL-CIO but let's not forget that the Democratic party is the AFL-CIO. I am pretty sure a dem will win the House seat when it opens. Maybe not Gormely's senate seat but it's still close and can happen there.

[Conan]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

People don't associate him with corruption, he's probably the most respected Republican in our delegation.

Your clalling NJ Republicans corrupt isn't that kind of hypacritcal?

I just said the man wasn't corrupt!

[Conan]

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

Just because Bush only won by a point doesn't mean the seat is going Dem. Van Drew would be strong but what else do the others offer? Why would Whelan be a lock for the seat?


Also, what are you talking about in regards to Whelan running for the State Senate? I've only heard of one Dem running so far. There hasn't been a statement by Whelan in the last day has there?

Well by the time the seat opens up it's pretty much 50-50 (In 2008 or 2010) and Dems have greater representation in that area a long with more candidates. We also have the money and the local labor support most likely. The GOP is an incompetent failure in NJ. Our operation is just much better. I think Corzine carried the district too and probably Al and Menendez. I am pretty sure Whelan is running, I think I read it on politicsnj.com

Edit: Corzine did carry the district
Corzine 92564  -   54%
Forrester 80569 -  46%
Municipal numbers arent out for 2006 yet so I can't confirm Menendez
Al had a substantial lead in the counties where they are fully included in the district so it's safe to assume he won it.

[Conan]

Well by the time the seat opens up it's pretty much 50-50 (In 2008 or 2010) and Dems have greater representation in that area a long with more candidates.

No, that's not necessarily true. You can't say that it will turn out that way with each passing year just because of the Presidential candidates. In a McCain vs. Hillary race, would you say that it would end up 50-50? I doubt it.

I wouldn't say that the Dems have more representation there. You have some notable Assemblymen and possibly a State Senator soon but I am pretty sure that the GOP still dominates on the local level.

 

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The growing influence from outside areas like Camden definetley works in your favor in regards to man power, money, etc. I will also concede that the NJ GOP is a mess. However, if the local groups band together under the leadership of the widely influential LoBiondo, the GOP is still favored. The local parties will do everything they can to keep that seat.

As for Whelan, I was informed that he has been mentioned for the seat for awhile but has not announced anything. I thought you were claiming that he was definetley in. A race with Whelan in it will be interesting.

Edit: Corzine did carry the district
Corzine 92564  -   54%
Forrester 80569 -  46%
Municipal numbers arent out for 2006 yet so I can't confirm Menendez
Al had a substantial lead in the counties where they are fully included in the district so it's safe to assume he won it.

[/quote]
I am not saying the republican candidate can't win but I extremely doubt it and just think we will pick it up. It's becoming increasingly democratic though. I'll go into county gov later on.

[Conan]

I am not saying the republican candidate can't win but I extremely doubt it and just think we will pick it up. It's becoming increasingly democratic though. I'll go into county gov later on.

I would be interested to hear your take on Atlantic County's government, please do tell.

Atlantic County Gov:

2006:

Senate:
Menendez  34251
Kean  31784

Clerk:
Dem - 33294
Rep - 31461

Freeholder at large:
Dem - 31184
Rep - 30852

Freeholder (not at large):
Dem - 5553
Rep - 5850

Freeholder (not at large):
Dem - 7345
Rep- 7700

2005:

Gov:
Corzine - 34539
Forrester - 28004

2004:

Pres:
Kerry - 55746
Bush - 49487

Freeholder (at large):
Dem - 49848
Rep - 48149

Freeholder (not at large):
Dem - 11017
Rep - No nomination made

Freeholder (not at large):
Dem - 10599
Rep - 11702


On county level it seems like they are about even though dems may hold more offices countywide. Federal level they are going dem but it's nearly half and half. Same thing with governor.