I don't know if I'd say unwinnable, but under the current conditions it's very unlikely that a Republican can win the national popular vote. it's hard to win the popular vote when you're getting blown out in states like California, Illinois, New York, and running close in states like Texas and Florida.
I think you gave the correct analysis. While the GOP is unfairly favored in the Electoral College thanks to the disproportionately many votes of the tiny states, the Democrats have a tremendous advantage for the popular vote thanks to the huge states.
Can we end this myth now? Including Maine with Democrats just to make things easier, in the last election there were more small states voting Dem than small state voting GOP (looking at states with under 5 ECs). Everyone always wants to chide MT, WY, ND, SD, etc. and then omit VT, HI, RI, DE, etc. That goes along with the argument against having a Senate. Small Dem states are just as represented as small GOP states.
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