2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[ON Progressive]

As an outside observer I would still be very cautious about North Carolina with regard to the democrats. I know it is an apple to oranges comparison, but dems felt really good about NC in 2016 and the end result was not really that close.  I feel NC is gravy and is by far and away the sixth state of the "core 6" that Biden is targeting.  I think Biden needs to win nationally by about 8 to be confident  of carrying it.  

The thing is that there was nothing really there in the data to show the NC EV was actually good in 2016. It was actually pretty terrible compared to 2012 for Democrats. Dems were 6% less of the electorate in NC in EV compared to 2012, and the EV electorate was 5% less Black than in 2012.

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone have more insight into the GA early vote? It's MASSIVE at this point, but kinda shocked that the black share is only 28.5%. In total in 2018, it was 30%. Kinda surprised to see it lower right now? Interested to see where Souls to the Polls effect the races in places like this.

A good chunk of Black voters in GA aren't registered by race at all, so they'd fall under the Other category.

[ON Progressive]

Here is turnout data actually worth a damn in Texas, Derek Ryan's turnout report. He is a GOP consultant but he's reliable here.

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/c88322b1-9dfd-41f6-98d4-82de00211413/Statewide_Report_Day_13.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.9%
Last Voted in D Primary - 27.2%
GE history/no primary history - 27.7%
No voting history - 14.3%

[ON Progressive]

Derek Ryan's turnout report for TX through Monday (so no votes from today in): https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/9411ad67-cc0e-4028-b4c6-5472ef16256a/Statewide_Report_Day_14.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.6% (-0.3 from yesterday)
Last Voted in D Primary - 26.6% (-0.6)
GE history/no primary history - 28.1% (+0.4)
No voting history - 14.9% (+0.6)

[ON Progressive]

https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/a4511cd6-18aa-4102-bb22-ee81b6db10a5/Statewide_Report_Day_17.pdf

Derek Ryan's penultimate report for TX EV turnout. Parenthesis are changes from Day 16's report.

Last Voted in R Primary - 29.3% (-0.6)
Last Voted in D Primary - 24.8% (-0.6)
GE/No Primary History - 29.4% (+0.5)
First Time Voter - 16.6% (+0.6)

R Primary voters with no D history are now below their 2016 share of the electorate. First time voters now equal 2016. Both GE/No primary and first time voters should climb up in the final report tomorrow because of just how tapped out the primary electorate of both parties are (even the 1R and 1Ds are >70% turnout!).

Also, voters under 30 are now a bigger slice of the electorate than they were two years ago.

[ON Progressive]

What is it with folks in this thread ignoring the Indy/NPA/NPP votes? I'm getting real sick of it

Especially annoying when the NPA vote is acting very similarly to the D vote:
https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322363873039687680

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1322897106517053440

Very strong day for Ds, especially since NPAs in Miami-Dade are strongly Democratic.