COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[ON Progressive]

Called it: https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-studies-many-recovered-patients-have-no-or-very-low-antibody-counts-risking-reinfections

This non peered review study from clickbait Thailand Medical News is clearly the gold standard. Well done, excellent science fact.

Also, antibodies are not even close to the only immunity mechanism the body has anyhow.

[ON Progressive]

I'm sorry, but if there is no hope of a vaccine happening anytime soon by this time next year, I'm just not going to care about any "social distancing" or whatever.

I have a less than 0.1% chance of dying if I even contract this disease, why the hell should I have to waste nearly my entire 20s being afraid of this? And I'm certainly not alone in this either.

If people can't develop immunity, as there have been hints of since the beginning, this may end up fundamentally changing our society. Obviously things won't remain exactly as they are now forever, but there will be significant change from the old "normal."

There have been literally zero hints towards this.

[ON Progressive]

I'm sorry, but if there is no hope of a vaccine happening anytime soon by this time next year, I'm just not going to care about any "social distancing" or whatever.

I have a less than 0.1% chance of dying if I even contract this disease, why the hell should I have to waste nearly my entire 20s being afraid of this? And I'm certainly not alone in this either.

If people can't develop immunity, as there have been hints of since the beginning, this may end up fundamentally changing our society. Obviously things won't remain exactly as they are now forever, but there will be significant change from the old "normal."

There have been literally zero hints towards this.

Uh, how do you know you have less than 0.1% of a chance of dying if you contract it? What the what? There are very healthy people who died from this. Not to mention, it's not just about YOU. Stop being selfish. If you go out there and get it, and don't show any symptoms and are fine, you could still as easily give it to numerous other people, especially people who may not be able to fight it. What an awful thing for you to say. That's some privilege and complete selfishness right there.

I know that I have a less than 0.1% chance of dying if I contract it because the IFR is somewhere in the range of 0.5-1% from the multiple high-quality antibody studies we have out in Geneva and New York State, and that is massively skewed towards the elderly. I am anything but elderly, unless you consider 22 years old to be such.

Even Italy is only seeing 0.1% CFR in patients in my age range, and that's a place that was literally seeing triage care! Most places aren't remotely like this (including my home province), and CFR is very likely higher than IFR.

I'd also like to point out I only said I'm doing this if we're 12 months away from now, and don't have any hope of a vaccine coming anytime soon at that point. If we have something firm that indicates a vaccine is coming by then, I would absolutely be willing to hold out still at that point.

I have been actually taking quite a lot of precautions. I actually volunteered to work from home and haven't even gone out of the house other than for walking my dog around the neighbourhood in well over a month!

[ON Progressive]

If people can't develop immunity, as there have been hints of since the beginning, this may end up fundamentally changing our society. Obviously things won't remain exactly as they are now forever, but there will be significant change from the old "normal."

There have been literally zero hints towards this.

'No Evidence' Yet That Recovered COVID-19 Patients Are Immune, WHO Says
Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again. Can you get reinfected?
Questions raised over COVID-19 reinfection after Japanese woman develops illness again

There's tons more, going back to at least mid-March, if my memory serves.

Don't call me a liar. I make sure my opinions are stated as such, and unlike many others, I don't make up information to suit my argument.

Anyway, my point was that we may see masks become part of daily life, as well as other things I can't think of but would be different than how life is now to keep the reproduction number down while the least vulnerable return to work. Life will be different.

I did not call you a liar once, but ignoring that:
1) Your first headline is simply indicating that we don’t have any certainty around immunity, not that we do or don’t have immunity.
2) Those Korean cases are very likely coming from the fact that the PCR swab tests are catching dead virus RNA that isn’t harmful in terms of infectivity or symptoms. This article has a paragraph showing that none of the swabs from “reinfected” patients were able to culture any viruses in a lab, which backs up this.
3) This was debunked weeks ago, and was very likely just a false negative (which swab tests have a high percentage of).

[ON Progressive]

I just saw a model that predicts 350,000 dead in the US alone by the end of June.

I lost hope I didn't even know I had.

That would require approximately 4900 deaths a day for the next 58 days, which is very unlikely to happen.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

The WHO has a clear agenda of decreasing morale, it’s just apparent at this point.

Nah, they are just acting like tone-deaf scientists. They warn it may never go away because there will almost certainly be some lingering outbreaks in less developed regions/among anti-vaxxer nuts kinda like somewhere in between Measles and Polio. The problem is, the WHO is completely tone-deaf and doesn’t understand saying things like these scares people who take the words out of context.

Scientists in general have always had a problem with communicating to the masses for the most part, so it doesn’t surprise me the WHO has had issues with it as well.

In any case, all they’re saying is basically this will be endemic, which is something that experts were predicting in January. The more pressing question in my eyes would be “how long will this be disruptive?” rather than “will this virus ever be eradicated?”

[ON Progressive]

Damn...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new-coronavirus-outbreaks-push-china-to-impose-wuhan-style-lockdown-in-the-northeast/ar-BB14oIbf?li=BBnb7Kz

So It Begins Theodin Two Towers dot gif

Scientists told us a second wave was extremely likely. Here we go I guess...

This isn't a second wave, it's a result of the flaw of just trying to control a localized outbreak and leave it at that.

Every single small local outbreak being called a second wave by the press is quite frankly irresponsible.