KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[ON Progressive]

Why does McGrath have so few in-state endorsements? I feel like that's the sort of situation you don't get unless you have an impressively toxic personality.

The gist of it really is that McGrath has never really been particularly a candidate that had any connections with the state party establishment, and indeed has always kinda crossed them.

Her 2018 House run actually kinda pissed off the local party folks for several reasons:
1) They were planning on running Lexington’s then-Mayor Jim Gray for that seat, so her jumping in kinda got them upset in the first place.
2) Her campaign gained traction on the back of a viral ad that was made by an out-of-state firm, and that ad meant she got a boatload of money from out-of-state support.
3) The general election campaign by her was functionally run by the DCCC, which meant the local party operatives were basically barred.

This Senate campaign is even worse on at least the latter two of those fronts. She has basically been running a national campaign (running ads in big media markets out of state, earned media mostly on major national cable news, donations almost entirely outside KY, etc.), and the DSCC is functionally running her campaign. Keep in mind the DSCC is even more heavy handed than the DCCC. And that is why the local endorsements for her are basically non-existent.

[ON Progressive]

Honestly at this rate, just have Charles Booker win, b/c the McGrath hate is so odd and ridiculous that I don't think I wanna deal with it for another 4 months

How dare people dislike a candidate that sued to throw away thousands of absentee ballots for no good reason.

[ON Progressive]

Honestly at this rate, just have Charles Booker win, b/c the McGrath hate is so odd and ridiculous that I don't think I wanna deal with it for another 4 months

How dare people dislike a candidate that sued to throw away thousands of absentee ballots for no good reason.

I haven't heard of this story but I can almost guarantee there is way more nuance to this story than you're making it out to be

There really isn’t:
https://twitter.com/kysecstate/status/1272991853932134400?s=21

[ON Progressive]

Record turnout, bigger than 2008 so far.

"I am worried that no-nothing, angry people from New York and California will call us and they'll block out people from rural and urban Kentucky who are trying to find out where to go vote," [Republican Attorney General Michael] Adams said. "That is voter suppression."

Uhhh....what?

This is, in fact, happening:
https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1275158726803152901

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1276171990286635015?s=21

[ON Progressive]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

[ON Progressive]

All these Booker Supporters here have to realize one thing:

Booker was expected to beat McGrath in the In-Person Vote given the surge.

I still have massive doubts that his lead will hold once the Absentee Vote is fully tabulated.

The NY Times said on Tuesday even Bookers Aides saying privatly that he will get close to Mrs McGrath but not get over the top.

The in-person voting seems pretty small.  Really need some kind of indication of late returning mail ballots to believe Booker has a chance.

I find no reason to believe though that there's a 40+ point gap between absentees and election day at all, especially not in Louisville where Booker's name rec gap was never as bad since he represents Louisville in the state legislature.

I'm not saying McGrath will win Jefferson.  Booker needs a ton of votes in Jefferson to make up the rest of state.   I do see every reason to expect that the in-person vote especially in Jefferson would skew heavily Booker as it's mainly people drawn into the election last minute.  Keep in mind, I'm expecting for Booker to have a chance Jefferson has to cast 130000-140000 in the D primary.  So, looking at 10000 in person votes doesn't mean much.

Also, the only 2000 in person votes in Fayette county seem pretty weak too.  

Again, we're in uncharted territory here and have little clue about when ballots were returned and in what quantity, especially county by county.

Definitely possible that McGrath can win while losing Jefferson and Fayette by 40+ and 30+ points respectively. There is still doubts on how well she will do on absentees as a whole though, and we really don't have a clue of the eday/absentee splits in the counties that are reporting absentees thus far. An argument can be made that the absentee reporting counties are not necessarily representative of non-Jefferson/Fayette parts of a state as a whole, considering 4/12 of these counties are in McGrath's district. Woodford County is a bit of an intriguing result though even though it is in McGrath's district since it seems like Booker won the eday vote in surrounding counties but McGrath ended up comfortably ahead in Woodford on their eday+absentee count, which makes it wonder if it's possible that Booker won the eday vote there.

Fayette county seems to be decent at providing information of ballot returns, they went from 73% to 81% returned from yesterday to today, and 65% to 73% from Tuesday to yesterday, I'd think that the rate of return would slow dramatically from this point on but who knows, I still feel like the 90% estimated statewide return rate by the SOS is ridiculously bullish.  

There is no way she would be able to do this if this was to be true. Jefferson and Fayette are going to be over a third of the primary vote and she is not winning by nearly enough in the rest of the state to offset those sorts of landslide margins.

[ON Progressive]

NYT count updated this morning and is now:
Booker 34,653
McGrath 32,973

They didn't add just the Daviess numbers (I know this because both Booker and McGrath picked up more votes in the update than just Daviess would explain), and it doesn't look like any new counties were added.

Anyone have any ideas?

[ON Progressive]

Looking through some newspapers across KY to find when results will come out for certain counties, here is what I can find (some of these were from n1240's links above, others finding myself):
Boyd County - Monday
Carter County - Monday
Greenup County - Tuesday
Scott County - Tuesday (Source)
Jessamine County - "counting through June 27" (Source)
Warren County - "likely won't be in before June 30" (Source)

If anyone else can find anything for other counties, that would be greatly appreciated.

[ON Progressive]

Looking through some newspapers across KY to find when results will come out for certain counties, here is what I can find (some of these were from n1240's links above, others finding myself):
Boyd County - Monday
Carter County - Monday
Greenup County - Tuesday
Scott County - Tuesday (Source)
Jessamine County - "counting through June 27" (Source)
Warren County - "likely won't be in before June 30" (Source)

If anyone else can find anything for other counties, that would be greatly appreciated.

Would expect most counties to certify June 30, possible the larger counties might miss the deadline, though. Might be able to expect a few scattered certifications on Monday.

Looks like Jefferson and Fayette will be in Tuesday morning:
https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1277613496591691781?s=21
https://twitter.com/drdesrochers/status/1277615364315254786?s=21

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, that margin in Fayette is very weak. Only about 900 votes better than Obama’s 2008 raw margin (although Booker will obviously be a lot closer statewide since he isn’t losing by 60+ in rural KY).

Think McGrath has this in the bag.

[ON Progressive]

If I had to guess I'd say McGrath would be able to gain the lead? There doesn't seem to be enough friendly areas for Booker left.

WaPo has her up by less than 2k votes now. Outstanding counties are likely going to be favorable to her. Final margin may be super slim and we might see quite a few challenges from the Booker campaign.

It's hilarious how bad Booker is doing in the Rual Areas. If you look at the NBC D-SEN Map Booker won only 9 Counties thus far. You never win Statewide doing that!

Oh, you could.  Just has to be the right 9 counties.  And in the end Booker is only going to win 4 counties (possibly 5)

Yeah, Booker could have actually won with even like the number of counties he won if he got far bigger Jefferson and Fayette margins (in Fayette in particular) than what he actually got.

[ON Progressive]

Looking forward to what will be on track to be the worst Democratic Senate campaign since Alvin Greene in 2010.

[ON Progressive]

Looking forward to what will be on track to be the worst Democratic Senate campaign since Alvin Greene in 2010.

If that's the case here is my Question:

Will McGrath win a bigger Percentage of the Vote compared to Grimes in 2014? I think Grimes got 42 % in 2014.

McGrath won’t do significantly better than Biden if you ask me.

Yeah, I think the Demosaur vote is dead federally. It's still probably a thing in state races (after all, Beshear won plenty) but doubt it for a Senate race.