Make a bold prediction about AZ.

[ON Progressive]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

[ON Progressive]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

It may be more likely to flip than FL, or NC, but those states have more electoral votes.
Romney only won NC by a very small margin. He also won NC by a much smaller margin than AZ.
Even if NC leans slightly to the GOP it is still a swing state. FL may be doubtful because of irregularities and voter suppression, but if the playing field were fair in FL, it would be at least a tossup and maybe even lean D. AZ may be a swing state but it doesn't lean D and may even lean R. It's a question of overall strategy. Do you target big states or small ones?

You can do both, you know. The Dem nominee for President will very likely have north of a billion dollars to play with, which means they can spend a ton throughout the entire battleground.

Also, NC's lean hardly changed between 2012 and 2016 (both years, NC was just under 6 points more GOP than the nation). Meanwhile, Arizona swung from being 13 points more GOP than the nation to a mere 5 points more GOP than the nation.

Who cares if Arizona has less electoral votes than NC/FL, it's more winnable than either and that's what matters.

[ON Progressive]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Considering Democrats won 4 statewide races, I highly doubt his approval was 52% in Arizona. Also, his national net approval is 5 points lower than Bill's at the same point.

Bill also had a worse economy in 1994 than Trump does right now, not to mention Bill's approval was well above 50% by election day. That will not happen with Trump, especially since we have a strong economy and he's still well below water.

[ON Progressive]

Sinema built a coalition of independents and moderate republicans. The exit poll for ED voters show she won 10% of voters who approve of Trump. (Despite all this, she didn’t even manage to get a majority, even in a D+9 national environment). Compare this to 2016, with a R+1 Congress. When considering the national margin change from 2016-2018, AZ actually trended Republican LMAO

Also, senate elections don’t always correspond with presidential elections. (Imo, I’m pretty sure Trump will win West Virginia even though Manchin won it in 2018.)

Clearly only Sinema could win AZ...which is why she won it by about the same margin as Dems did in the cumulative House results.

We can also ask Secretary of State-elect Steve Gaynor and Superintendent of Public Education-elect Frank Riggs how "Trump has a 52% approval rating in Arizona"