Ontario general election 2018 - Results Thread

[ON Progressive]

Also how are the Liberals hanging on in Thunder Bay? goodness

Local candidates matter more than party affiliation in the North. It's why the PCs are winning Kenora-Rainy River.

[ON Progressive]

Why are they calling TBA for the Libs with less than 400 votes and more than 20 polls?

The polls left are probably Liberal leaning polls.

[ON Progressive]

Looks like the undecideds broke late for the PCs who are now ahead by 7%. Were the polls just underestimating them, and the movement towards the PC's at the end a sign of things to come? Or perhaps the weekend scandal appeared to voters as truly fake news thanks to it's timing and personal target? Either way, the NDP fell way short of polls - both seat and percent.

CBC's polling average had the NDP at 35.5%, and they're getting 33.7%. PCs were at 38.7%, they're at 40.4%. Not really incredible difference from the polls, although if the average was on the nail, the NDP have a couple more seats than the PCs (i.e. NDP get Kitchener-Conestoga and Brampton West instead of PCs)

[ON Progressive]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

[ON Progressive]

Question, are provincial-level ridings everywhere in Ontario identical to the federal-level ridings?

In Southern Ontario, yes. In Northern Ontario, there's a couple ridings which are different.

how different?

A couple of ridings (Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay) with smaller populations than the other ridings were created, and neither of these exist on the federal level.

[ON Progressive]

The London to Windsor numbers are ridiculous. The Liberals didn't even break double digits!

[ON Progressive]

Ottawa 8 ridings
Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, Nepean, Orleans, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean

Total votes: 435,231
P.C: 147,814, 34.0%
NDP: 130,184, 29.9
Liberal: 131,491, 30.2
Green: 16,866, 3.9
Other 8,876

The NDP's best ever showing in Ottawa, probably, and still third place (and just one seat!) We will never elect a progressive mayor.

Was it actually better than 1990?

[ON Progressive]

Is Horwath going to stay as NDP leader?

Almost certainly. The NDP's caucus is over double the size it was at dissolution, and the NDP has improved in every single election under her leadership.

[ON Progressive]

Meadowvale-Streetsville-Lisgar seems like a pretty bad riding name.

[ON Progressive]

So is Horwath on the way out as Leader or...?

Not going to happen. Parties don't tend to throw out leaders who more than double the size of their party's caucus and put them above third party status for the first time in over two decades.

[ON Progressive]

A firm called One Persuasion did an exit poll of 5703 voters, and it is very interesting: http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/exit-poll-suggests-wynnes-early-concession-speech-may-have-saved-liberal-seats

Highlights (all numbers PC v NDP):
Men went 47-30 PC, women 38-33 NDP
Age: 18-24 went 53-31 NDP, 25-34 went 48-24 NDP. Meanwhile, 55-65 went PC 42-32 and 65+ 45-28 PC
Education: High school or less 51-31 PC, community college/trade school 45-33 PC, Bachelor’s 36-34 NDP, Graduates 37-32 NDP

These are a lot of the same trends happening throughout the Western world. Non-university voters going conservative, highly educated voters swinging more to the left. Huge age and gender gaps as well.

[ON Progressive]

Ontario’s startling election in eight before-and-after maps

Why Ontario's new merged polls suck in 8 maps - there I fixed it.

Yeah, these new maps look awful.

[ON Progressive]

I’d be interested in a PC-NDP swing map.

This was on my to do list, so here:



Probably a strong correlation with education levels.

Would make sense if there was an education correlation. The exit poll I posted earlier had the NDP winning those with bachelor's and advanced degrees, while losing among those with no post-secondary education and those who graduated from community college/trade schools.

[ON Progressive]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

[ON Progressive]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

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Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

Younger people in the Southwest who are leaving the region to go off to university aren't coming back. The remaining younger people don't have the educational levels that would correlate to voting for the Liberals .

Is the Southwest really in decline? Doesn't seem like it from where I live, though I suppose it's possible that my area might be doing fine while the rest of the region is not.

[ON Progressive]

Actually, Liberal support was stronger in the north part of the county, which is a bit more 'urban' what with Pembroke and Petawawa, etc, but also contains more 'remote' communities up the Ottawa Valley, and further into the rugged interior. The south part of the riding (which includes the Town of Renfrew itself) is much more rural and has an agricultural base, and was often lumped with historically (and still is) Tory Carleton County (now rural Ottawa), which helped the Tories win that riding.

I'd always sort of figured this from the provincial history, but confirmation is good. Though above I was just referring to the county - i.e. that it's peculiarities aren't to do with the second part of the name.

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Renfrew County is pretty Catholic and there are also substantial Catholic populations in parts of the SW, particularly further south - in a period in which a big part of the PC brand was anchored in overt support for a Protestant Ascendancy (and so anti-Catholic discrimination) that would have been a pretty big incentive to vote Liberal, and as a tribal marker will have lasted longer. And the parts of the SW that are not all Catholic (i.e. further north) weren't they historically Methodist rather than Anglican?

Also o/c it's not so much that the old provincial Liberals were the right-wing party as a right-wing party, specifically the right-wing party that styled itself as anti-elite, anti-Toronto etc, rather than the right-wing party associated with those things.

All of which leads me to suspect whether an awful lot of this is just a generational shift - genepool Liberals dying and their children not having the reasons for party loyalty that they did.

That's partially true, but OTOH SW Ontario has seen some massive, rapid drop offs for the Liberals, much too quick to be purely generational.

Younger people in the Southwest who are leaving the region to go off to university aren't coming back. The remaining younger people don't have the educational levels that would correlate to voting for the Liberals .

Is the Southwest really in decline? Doesn't seem like it from where I live, though I suppose it's possible that my area might be doing fine while the rest of the region is not.

You're in Oxford right? We're talking more of Kent and Essex (and to a lesser extent Elgin, Middlesex and Lambton) or the "deep south" of Ontario.

I am in Oxford. That basically confirms what I was alluding to in the second half of my post. Any theory for why places like Oxford wouldn't have the issues that places like Kent and Essex do?

[ON Progressive]

My neighbourhood's poll went:

PC 903 (57.7%)
NDP 461 (29.4%)
Liberal 152 (9.7%)
Green 50 (3.2%)

Not surprised at all. PCs won every single poll in my riding (often by huge margins).

My poll went:

NDP - 146 (53.3%)
OLP - 69 (25.2%)
PC - 52 (18.9%)
GP - 7 (2.5%)

My poll is a condo; went OLP in 2014, 2015GE and NDP in 2011GE

Your poll sounds like it's a poll with a lot of NDP/Liberal swing voters. My poll, much to my surprise, went OLP in 2014, and it went CPC by just one vote in 2015. It did, however, vote CPC by 43 points over the NDP in 2011.

[ON Progressive]

Or, if you want, wards in the UK.

We don't even get ward results for GEs as a rule. A couple of London boroughs and (randomly but very instructively) Wigan published there's, but that's it. Crazy.

Is there any reason for this, aside from to annoy people like us?

Originally it stemmed from a desire to protect the integrity of the ballot and the right of the voter to anonymity, but by this point it's just habit, tradition and laziness. One issue is that votes from different polling districts and even different wards are sometimes mixed together to be counted. It's all very silly and inefficient - polling districts are large enough that there's no threat of individual voters being identified and counting votes at each polling station and then reporting them would actually speed up the process greatly... and reduce the risk of errors: the worst in recent decades was Staffordshire S.E. in 1987 at which the Labour and SDP totals appear to have been confused for each other. It was a safe Conservative seat that year, but Jesus Christ all the same...

It would be very nice if the UK would actually report poll-by-poll. The fact it takes until the next afternoon to report results in some constituencies is actually sad.