State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

It absolutely would not. Counties that have swung 73 points in 16 years don't go back.

[ON Progressive]

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The KY Senate is 78% GOP. I guarantee you the statewide popular vote wasn't 78% GOP.

That's not evidence of gerrymandering. On fair maps in FPTP systems, the winner of the popular vote tends to have their seats overblown.

[ON Progressive]

Here are the partisan affiliations of candidates in MS tonight:

HD 32 has Solomon Osbourne (Democrat) and Troy D. Brown (Democrat, although he ran as an indy in 2011 for this seat). I have no idea about the third guy, a bunch of googling implies he didn’t even qualify for the ballot.

All the HD 71 candidates are confirmed Democrats.

All the HD 101 candidates are Republicans (Even Jim Hood only got 26% in this seat, after all).

[ON Progressive]

Here are the partisan affiliations of candidates in MS tonight:

HD 32 has Solomon Osbourne (Democrat) and Troy D. Brown (Independent, ran as an Indy in 2011). I have no idea about the third guy, a bunch of googling implies he didn’t even qualify for the ballot.

All the HD 71 candidates are confirmed Democrats.

All the HD 101 candidates are Republicans (Even Jim Hood only got 26% in this seat, after all).

Troy D. Brown was the Democrat candidate against Trent Lott in 2000.

Ballotpedia never mentioned that for some reason on his campaign page, thank you. I'll edit to note that.

[ON Progressive]

TX HD-125 turnout:
https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1105606292331266048

Add this to 5228 early votes, total turnout is 8117 with an hour to go.

For context, the first round a month earlier had total turnout of 6127.

[ON Progressive]

Rangel (R) is going to surge with the ED vote in Texas, watch that race for a possible upset.

Uh, Lopez is currently winning the e-day vote 67-33 when Rangel needs to win 64% of election day votes to win.

And that's with 38% of election day precincts in.

[ON Progressive]

Just comparing the special election results to 2016/2012 in ME/PA:

ME HD-124 went Democratic by 29 points, which is an 10.9% improvement on Clinton and a 7.6% improvement on Obama 2012.

PA HD-114 went Democratic by 24.8 points, which is a 32.5% improvement on Clinton and even a 6.5% improvement on Obama 2012.

[ON Progressive]

Wow Dem candidate ran even ahead of Obama. What a hack can't beleive it. It's a safe D seat at the state leg level.

Thanks - glad you seemed to enjoy my maps! Sounds like your planning on making better ones yourself?

No, man, I'm not in the mapmaking business. My point was pretty obvious one. If you do public work, post it online, I hate to break it down to you but you could be criticized. It's a shock, I know. However I really didn't even criticize your maps or talked about how hard you do your job. I only pointed out that you were comparing apples to oranges, special election results vs presidential election in the same seat. Better comparison for sure is with the state leg election from the same year in which Trump won. Random observer on twitter and even here notes big swing to Dems but it would be a slightly different story if we compare 2016 state leg with this special. Your passive agressive tone that followed a normal comment is really something. Reminds me of 2016 election twitter in early vote reporting.. Remember, bias isn't what you report rather what you don't.

They really aren't. 2017 special election swings vs. 2016 was one of signs 2018 was going to be a big year for Democrats. Just like special election swings vs. 2008 and vs. 2012 were signs that 2010 and 2014 were going to be big years.

Not sure about the correlation between special election performance and Presidential years though, but the point is that it's not really that big a difference. Presidential performance is basically a baseline for the partisanship of the seat, especially in the past few cycles where there's been a very healthy correlation between Presidential margin and state legislative results.

[ON Progressive]

Hopefully we can hold on in Iowa SD 30.

We should be the favourites. Some of our presidential campaigns have helped here, and it's a Hillary/Hubbell seat. I'm not too secure since the margins weren't overly big (Hillary +2/Hubbell +8)

[ON Progressive]

Giddens might actually win the election day vote, which is quite rare in Iowa.

[ON Progressive]

The Sacramento County numbers that aren't on the SOS site:

[ON Progressive]

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

[ON Progressive]

It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.

What makes Kiley preferable?

Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.