Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[ON Progressive]

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article215375450.html

Remington:

Kelly-36%, Kobach-35%, Orman-12%

Colyer-38%, Kelly 28%, Orman-10%

Also in that article for the GOP primary (Kobach internal)
Kobach 37
Colyer 26

700 people and an MoE of 3.7%, so it seems legit for an internal.

[ON Progressive]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

Yoder is more experienced then Bacon. And, generally, i am extremely skeptical about "bold progreesive's" chances in rather rich suburban districts. I may be wrong, but i don't see Eastman victory either.

I do agree that Welder would lose, but that would be because he's a carpetbagger, not his ideology. Most voters aren't consistently ideological at all.

As for Eastman, she will probably win. She's a very skilled campaigner (as shown by her primary win) and isn't as liberal as Atlas thinks. She's a standard Democrat, quite honestly.

[ON Progressive]

BREAKING

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180803/gop-consultants-say-kobach-campaign-has-white-nationalists-on-payroll

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...is anyone surprised?

The amount of people that are surprised is literally zero people.

[ON Progressive]

What I really want to see is a tie where Kobach wins via coin flip or something. That would be entertaining.

[ON Progressive]

I think people underestimate how many Rs would go to Orman and overestimate how many Ds would go to him in a Kelly v. Kobach v. Orman race, tbh.

[ON Progressive]

I think there’s a non-minuscule chance that Orman has the opposite effect on the race than many expect. One can’t oversell how contentious the primary was, especially with the provisionals, and Kobach is the most unpopular statewide elected officials. I could see many moderate (in tone and substance) republicans supporting Orman before they could stomach supporting a democrat.

I agree. Indeed, I actually EXPECT Orman to take more from Rs.

I know he was the de facto Dem in 2014 KS-Sen, but I think Dems are going to be more likely to stick with their nominee against Kobach than they were going to against Roberts.

[ON Progressive]

Kevin Yoder's campaign released an internal and it shows these #s in KS-03:
https://twitter.com/pmiller1693/status/1047520508206616576

Keep in mind this is a Yoder internal that has him up 3, so it's probably an R-leaning sample.

[ON Progressive]

I expected Kelly to be outperforming Davids (and Davis), but not by 8 points. For reference, Davis only won this seat by 3 points in 2014, so this is a pretty good result for Kelly, especially since the poll seems R friendly. I’m sure the “experts” will move this race to tossup anytime now.

Do you have any sources on 2014 KS governor numbers by CD? I couldn't find them anywhere.

[ON Progressive]

OK, I found the 2014 numbers from a search of Miles' twitter feed:

[ON Progressive]

Tmthforu,

Hasn't Kobach changed the law making Orman dropping out impossible?

The law says that he can't be taken off the ballot. It doesn't prevent Orman from just deciding to suspend his campaign. It's kind of like how a lot of the presidential primary candidates who suspended their campaigns still were on the ballot.

[ON Progressive]

Dodge City, a majority Hispanic city with 27,000 residents, has one polling place.  It has been moved outside the city limits to a location a mile walk from the nearest bus stop.

https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article220286260.html

I am sure there are legitimate reasons for this that have absolutely nothing to do with racism. /s