The Hofoid House of Absurd & Ignorant Posts VII

[ON Progressive]

November '16 Edition: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252115
March '17 Edition: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=260192
August '17 Edition: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271292

These predictions are mostly still gut feelings, though I have somewhat considered the polling we have had and adjusted things in favor of dems overall due to Trump's continued unpopularity.

All of these are NPV predictions of how the race will turn out in 2020, which may not be the same as the result of an election held today, and which may not be reflective of the electoral college result. The +/- by each prediction represents gain or loss from the August edition. A few obviously-not-happening matchups have been removed.

I can provide additional predictions upon request.
---------------------------

Trump - 53% (-2)
Warren - 42% (+2)

Trump - 50% (-2)
Kamala Harris - 46% (+2)

Trump - 52% (=)
Clinton - 43% (=)

Trump - 49% (=)
Sanders - 46% (-1)

Trump - 50% (=)
Gillibrand - 45% (=)

Klobuchar - 51% (+2)
Trump - 47% (-1)

Hickenlooper - 52%  (+1)
Trump - 44% (=)

Sherrod Brown - 54% (+2)
Trump - 44% (=)

Booker - 51% (+1)
Trump - 46% (-1)

Biden - 60% (=)
Trump - 36% (=)

Kaine - 52% (+1)
Trump - 44% (-1)

Chris Murphy - 49% (+2)
Trump - 47% (-2)

Trump - 48% (=)
DeBlasio - 47% (=)

Joaquin Castro - 51% (-1)
Trump - 45% (+1)

Julian Castro - 50% (+3)
Trump - 47% (-2)

Cuomo - 47% (-1)
Trump - 44% (+1)

Kander - 52% (+1)
Trump - 45% (+1)

Trump - 51% (=)
O'Malley - 45% (=)

Heinrich - 52% (+2)
Trump - 44% (+2)

Trump - 51% (-4)
Oprah - 39% (+5)

Trump - 52% (=)
Delaney - 44% (=)

Garcetti - 52% (+2)
Trump - 45% (-2)

Bullock - 53% (+2)
Trump - 44% (-2)

Ossoff - 49% (=)
Trump - 47% (=)

McAuliffe - 51% (=)
Trump - 46% (+1)

Trump - 51% (-1)
Seth Meyers - 45% (+2)

Jerry Brown - 50% (=)
Trump - 46% (=)

Deval Patrick - 51% (+1)
Trump - 46% (-1)

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As done in the last edition, as a warning to Democrats to not nominate Warren, I am including matchups with her and some other potential republican nominees. Most of these would only happen in a scenario where Trump is impeached.:

Pence - 55% (-2)
Warren - 40% (+2)

Kasich - 61% (-1)
Warren - 34% (+4)

Cruz - 54% (+1)
Warren - 42% (=)

NEW:

Flake - 54%
Warren - 40%

Corker - 56%
Warren - 38%

Sasse - 53%
Warren - 41%

[ON Progressive]

Canada = Single-Payer Health Care
Canada = Capitalist Socialist

FTFY

[ON Progressive]

Canada = Single-Payer Health Care
Canada = Capitalist Socialist

FTFY

Is Stephen Harper a socialist?

Unsure, but Justin Trudeau certainly is.

[ON Progressive]

Canada = Single-Payer Health Care
Canada = Capitalist Socialist

FTFY

Is Stephen Harper a socialist?

Unsure, but Justin Trudeau certainly is.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=244776.0

Wulfric McCarthy's rules for socialist identification. Lots of great gems in there, including how to absolve oneself from the socialist label.

LMAO. That thread is incredible.

[ON Progressive]

These guys were almost gone from our politics.  How did they creep back in?

They crept back in because Democrats complained about their moderates.  They were DINOs.  They were no better than Republicans.  Saving them was never a priority for the left of the Democratic Party.

The thing about the moderate, and even conservative, Southern Democrats is that they were elected by black voters.  Black voters in coalition with working class white voters, to be sure, but black voters were a key part of that coalition.

Such Democrats had to have open doors for their black constituents.  They had to care what they thought.  They had to cater to them at times, even if they were more conservative than not, because they needed black votes to win.  (That's a good thing, btw, not a bad thing.)  And the results of that was a contingent of Democrats that were often conservative on social issues, but moderately liberal on bread-and-butter issues that working class folks of both races benefitted from.

This, however, wasn't good enough for Northern liberals.  They joined with misguided black Southern Democrats to being about the reapportionment of 1990 whch produced a record number of Southern Black Democratic legislators.  It also produced a record number of Southern Republican legislators.  It resulted in a record number of liberal Democrats that could be ignored.  And that's what happened; Southern blacks are now served by elected officials who have absolutely no reason to care about what they think, given the present electoral makeup of the South.

Socially conservative Democrats that are moderate, even liberal, on economics could win in the South.  But the social liberals won't have this; they are counting on demographics being destiny.  I'd really like to ask them how that's working out for them.

[ON Progressive]

Abortion is good; your signature is bad.

This isn't the Simple Truths thread.

[ON Progressive]

Imagine living in a state where Marsha Blackburn has a +10 favorability rating. I feel so sorry for progressives living in red states.

You realize Pennsylvania is a red state, right?

[ON Progressive]

Nixon was never going to beat Cuomo.

Also, it shows that the centrist New York Democrat is nearing extinction.

The IDC was a foolish conference, but they did appeal to Independent voters.

Outerborough white ethnics will probably stay home in November

[ON Progressive]

Both were horrible, but if forced to pick, I’d say Roosevelt.

What was horrible about Lincoln in your view?  I assume you dislike Roosevelt because you hold conservative views, but that would be a hilariously misguided and simplistic reason to hate Lincoln, so I figure there must be something else.

He was an autogenocidal authoritarian who carried out an illegal war intended to solidify and expand the federal government's power, and subjugate his political opposition.

Essentially, an American Pol Pot, just not quite as psychopathic and evil. He is the worst President in American history, and likely and hopefully will retain this distinction forever.

Yes, and a war against modern-day soft serfdom (property taxes) would also be justified.

Alabama is a hell of a drug.

Libertarianism AND Alabama is a hell of a drug double whammy.

[ON Progressive]

I wouldn't be surprised if Vukmir's ads have actually hurt her with voters rather than helped. She campaigns like she's in a red state.

She is.

[ON Progressive]

If Flores actually wins, then it means that Russians hacked the election totals to rig the results. No other rational explanation exists.