IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Politician]

Titanium R->Titanium R

[Politician]

Safe R if he gets nominated.

[Politician]

Cindy Axne is being courted by Schumer and Cortez Masto. https://twitter.com/iastartingline/status/1100049355879473152?s=21

Not a good idea at all.  This isn’t like Nevada in 2018 where Heller was already dead meat due to it being Trumps midterm. Ernst is pretty popular in a state where Trump could still very well win.  I see this as more likely to be a Patrick Murphy 2016 sitauation then a Jackie Rosen 2018 situation.

Well she’d probably lose her House seat in the next Republican leaning year anyway. Which should make it much less of a risk to go for Senate. Jared Golden is in a similar situation

Well, redistricting is most likely to make the district all metro Des Moines probably with Story attached, so if she could make it to 2022 it's a pretty safe seat.

I guess, but that’s not guaranteed. In any case, a Democratic House member sitting in an EVEN or R+ PVI seat is almost always going to be better off going for the more valuable Senate in a potentially competitive state. Like Finkenauer, Golden, Cunningham, etc.

So basically a 100% of losing versus a 50% chance.  All three of the above would have probably a 100% chance of losing senate races versus a better than 50% chance (except Cunningham) of keeping their House seat in 2020.  

Giving up a House seat where you have a chance (and possibly favored) at re-election versus a kamikaze Senate run is just stupid.  Look at Brad Ellsworth and Charlie Melancon in 2010.  They had zero chance at winning Senate races in their states with Obama in the White House yet ran and lost badly and had their careers ended.

lol at you comparing ME and IA in a presidential year to LA and IN in a massive R wave midterm year.

[Politician]

I'm starting to think this is Safe R. Trump isn't losing Iowa, and Ernst isn't running behind Trump.

*facepalm*

Are you a massive concern troll?

[Politician]

How on earth is this a triage, is Atlas really this dumb? The DCCC also endorsed Ben Ray Lujan in NM who has a primary opponent, so either they're confident no stronger Dems will run or they think Greenfield is better than any potential candidates.

[Politician]

Lol, these "this is a triage" predictions already didn't age well.

[Politician]

We need another Franken in the Senate.

[Politician]

Franken officially in.

https://iowastartingline.com/2019/08/26/retired-admiral-michael-franken-joins-senate-race-for-ernst-matchup/

[Politician]

Greenfield raised $1.1M.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2019/10/09/iowa-democrat-theresa-greenfield-money-raising-race-us-senate-seat-joni-ernst/3918216002/

[Politician]

Greenfield outraised Ernst last quarter, taking in 1.1$ Million to the incumbent senator's 1$ Million.

https://www.apnews.com/6e1596a88b3d448e94f903de0bfd30a4

Personally, I think this speaks more to the fact that the Ds are doing really well with fundraising than Greenfield's ability, but still, it is a positive sign from her campaign.

Clearly Safe R and less likely to flip than KS/AK/MT. /s

[Politician]

Atlas absolutely considers Iowa Safe/Likely R for President and Senate lmao. People get mocked for suggesting otherwise