2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Politician]

Golden running for reelection. This is like the 6th most 2016 Republican district and like the 3rd most Trumpy district that a Democrat currently holds.

He doesn't get the message that he'll be a one-termer, GOP should hold ME SEN, given that Gideon probably can't beat Collins, also I will be eating popcorn watching Golden's quixotic reelection bid, go down in flames.

You really think 2020 is going to be a Republican year, don’t you?

Well, he also thinks Stevens and Rouda will lose, and Casten will only win by the skin of his teeth, so yeah...

The fact that you think that people like Stevens, Finkenauer, and Golden are Safe is beyond me. Also you unironically, expect Joni Ernst to lose, so I don't know what to say

It will be a D+3 ish year, Golden only narrowly won in a D+8.6 year, he's done, especially with Collins and Trump, on the ballot

I think Finkenauer and Golden are Tilt D, Stevens is Likely D, and Ernst is right on the border between Likely and Lean R, but thanks for playing

Golden is Tilt D??, please tell me where these Trump/Collins/Golden voters are coming from? Where are the Trump/Ernst/Finkenauer voters, coming from?? Also where are the Trump/R MI Sen Candidate/Stevens votes coming from?? Also the Ernst being vulnerable thing, is talking about Politician, not you

Um, the same place they came from in 2018? Trump isn't even gauranteed to carry the district again. Trump might lose IA-01 outright considering he won it by less than 4 points last time. Same with MI-11 which is also trending D.

[Politician]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

Golden literally won while Moody was on the ballot.

[Politician]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

I mean, there were clearly plenty of them in 2018, so...  

It's a waste of time trying t argue with him. He's convinced Golden has a 0% chance of winning regardless of what happens because "muh D+9 year" and "muh Trump coattails"

[Politician]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

They are right about polarization, though, but apparently there are lots of ticket splitters for Democrats in a year that Trump and Collins should both easily carry ME-02. Seats trending in the opposite direction, like IA-01 and ME-02, are lost causes for Democrats, especially ME-02. Same is true for Republican chances in seats like VA-10 and CA-49, those are not going back to the GOP

Such lost causes that Democrats represent the districts in Congress

And they won them in the last midterm when 2016 trends started to trickle downballot hard.

And yet Atlas mocks me when I suggest that people unironically believe 2016 trends are irreversible.

[Politician]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

[Politician]

What does the GOP bench look like here? Not that they need an A-lister to take on Peterson, but given the district’s conservative lean you’d think the GOP could find someone better than the some guy Peterson faced in 2016 and 2018.

State Senator Torrey Westrom, who lost to Peterson in 2014 (when the district wasn't as red as it currently is) would be a decent recruit.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/Forrest4Trees/status/1136794746993561600

No idea if this is someones hope or a leak.

Ew

[Politician]

RRH with updates Senate ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/06/29/rrh-elections-june-2019-senate-rankings/

[Politician]

NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

But Atlas told me this district was Safe D because of muh sububran trends and muh "swung towards Menendez"!

[Politician]

Further Dem House recruitment news:

State Rep. Donald Valdez is IN for CO-03. He's a great candidate: reputation as a maverick and strong on local issues. He's going up against 2018 candidate Diane Mitsch Bush in the primary, although I think he has a better shot in the GE. Likely R, but Valdez is another stellar recruit.

This one's hot off the presses: it looks Nikki Foster just filed for OH-01. Air Force veteran and another strong recruit. She's going to face some primary opposition, but she'd be a stronger candidate than Pureval in the general. Lean R and a top ten target.

Check out this kick@$$ map though

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1139739135453700096

Surprised it only swung 3% towards him.

[Politician]

RRH is insane if they think South Dakota is the Safest Senate race in the entire Country.

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, and Arkansas are all safer for Republicans, while Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, and Oregon are all safer for Democrats.

My rankings would be:
1. Alabama Likely R
2. Colorado Lean D
3. Arizona Tossup
4. North Carolina Tossup
5. Maine Lean R
6. Michigan Lean D
7. Georgia Lean R
8. Iowa Lean R
9. New Hampshire Likely D
10. Texas Likely R
11. Alaska Likely R
12. Minnesota Likely D
13. Montana Likely R
14. Kansas Likely R
15. South Carolina Safe R
16. Mississippi Safe R
17. Virginia Safe D
18. Kentucky Safe R
19. New Mexico Safe D
20. Nebraska Safe R
21. Louisiana Safe R
---Dividing line for races that have a chance of flipping below 0.1%
22. New Jersey Safe D
23. Illinois Safe D
24. Oregon Safe D
25. West Virginia Safe R
26. Delaware Safe D
27. Tennessee Safe R
28. Rhode Island Safe D
29. Arkansas Safe R
30. Idaho Safe R
31. South Dakota Safe R
32. Massachusetts Safe D
33. Wyoming Safe R
34. Oklahoma Safe R

[Politician]

Housley OUT for MN-Sen.

https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2019/07/02/this-is-the-right-decision-karin-housley-wont-seek-2020-rematch-with-sen-tina-smith/

[Politician]

LMAO this is how you blow a winnable race https://www.sunjournal.com/2019/07/03/maines-2nd-district-gops-eric-brakey-eyes-challenge-to-jared-golden/

If this is true, this race will move to Lean D with Brakey.

[Politician]

LMAO this is how you blow a winnable race https://www.sunjournal.com/2019/07/03/maines-2nd-district-gops-eric-brakey-eyes-challenge-to-jared-golden/

They'll still win. Shawn Moody won this district man. Golden is making a huge mistake by running for re-election I'm telling you. I mean if there's a big dem wave I could see him squeaking by(maybe winning via RCV again) but even then it's going to be hard. He could certainly outrun the Presidential nominee but only by so much.

Greg Abbott won TX-7 and TX-32 so they're tossups.
John Cox won CA-39, CA-45 and CA-48 so they're tossups.

[Politician]

LMAO this is how you blow a winnable race https://www.sunjournal.com/2019/07/03/maines-2nd-district-gops-eric-brakey-eyes-challenge-to-jared-golden/

They'll still win. Shawn Moody won this district man. Golden is making a huge mistake by running for re-election I'm telling you. I mean if there's a big dem wave I could see him squeaking by(maybe winning via RCV again) but even then it's going to be hard. He could certainly outrun the Presidential nominee but only by so much.

Greg Abbott won TX-7 and TX-32 so they're tossups.
John Cox won CA-39, CA-45 and CA-48 so they're tossups.

Gubernatorial election results are not great indicators for how a district will vote at the federal level.

I was mocking Progress96's notion that ME-2 is Safe R because Moody carried it with a plurality.

[Politician]

IL-06: Rep. Sean Casten (D) raised $700K in Q2, has $900K in COH

MONEY!

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/ajapko/status/1148257976643465217

The next Bill Nelson/totally anonymous, clearly.

[Politician]

Cisneros trails Generic R in NRCC intrnal:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/09/calif_dem_who_flipped_gop_seat_in_18_trails_in_new_poll__140739.html

Salt to taste.

[Politician]

GA-06: Handel up 4 in a NRCC internal.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VoKO_YxzbQaRHc-Z441iKtAiO2rLk-Ym/view

[Politician]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

Doubt

[Politician]

Waiting for Marchants numbers.

Did we ever get Marchant’s number?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1150939540531449856

He raised 510K.

[Politician]

Sebelius staffer Abbie Hodgson is IN for KS-02. Tough district but a strong candidate, and given Watkins is a disaster, I think it's worth keeping an eye on her. Likely R.

Safe R, really. If Paul Davis couldn't win this district in a D wave, I'm doubtful another Dem could in a more Republican year (at least in this district).

Not that it really matters, but did Kelly carry the district?

By nearly 10%

[Politician]

Big recruitment news across the board today...

https://twitter.com/wendydavis/status/1153280783383191552?

Carpetbagger, will lose.

This seat just moved to Safe R

A bit extreme, but yeah, Lean R. Roy should be happy about this.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/VApoliticalmeme/status/1153329471564464128

Could be nothing, could be something

Democrats be like Plz  be Wexton so the GOP can waste another 10 million.

Speaking of Wexton, the GOP got a decent candidate up for the fight with Wexton. Too bad this seat is both moving to the left at the speed of light, and guaranteed to lose red areas like Fredrick and Warren in 2020 redistricting (Fair redistricting creates a third NOVA Dem seat in Fairfax+Loudoun, Dem Redistricting might get wirder but still ends up with a 60/40 clinton seat at minimun).

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1153291575558103042

So if the GOP wants to sink another 10 mil, its on them.

Wexton can lose if the GOP calls her a socialist enough times.

Trump would have to winning by a landslide for Wexton to lose

Or Wexton has a major scandal

[Politician]

Another House recruit: Sara Hart Weir (R) officially in against Rep. Sharice Davids (D) in KS-03

https://twitter.com/sarahartweir/status/1155858444047585280

Decent recruit, but this district is trending blue and Davids is a strong incumbent, Likely D for now.