My current generous guess is they pick up three Senate seats (4, 11, 12)
Yeah, LD-12 is a virtual lock to flip, and imo LD-04 is somewhere between Toss-Up and Tilt R, but you really think Gopal will lose? He outran Murphy by 7 points in 2021, which would suggest that he has decent crossover appeal. LD-11 also got slightly more Dem-favorable in redistricting (it shed West Long Branch [
Trump+20,
Ciattarelli+31] and gained Fair Haven [
Biden+19,
Ciattarelli+5]), and the Republican candidate is
some rando advertising exec who's getting badly outspent. I honestly think it's likelier that the Dems flip back the LD-11 Assembly seats (one or both of them would probably have held on in 2021 under the new lines) than it is that the GOP flips the Senate seat, which would require an even redder national environment than 2021.
