NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Progressive Pessimist]

Republicans probably flip two Senate seats and four Assembly seats-specifically that Camden County and that Monmouth-Ocean districts with the retiring Democrats.

Otherwise, I think the Virginia state elections are a better indicator of what might be in store for next year.

Though the issues in both states seem pertinent. New Jersey Democrats are going all-in on Dobbs. We'll see how it pans out versus Virginia where the higher likelihood of a GOP trifecta makes the issue more salient.

New Jersey is still a state where lower turnout elections benefit the GOP, so I don't think it will work as well here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Republicans probably flip two Senate seats and four Assembly seats-specifically that Camden County and that Monmouth-Ocean districts with the retiring Democrats.

Otherwise, I think the Virginia state elections are a better indicator of what might be in store for next year.

Though the issues in both states seem pertinent. New Jersey Democrats are going all-in on Dobbs. We'll see how it pans out versus Virginia where the higher likelihood of a GOP trifecta makes the issue more salient.

New Jersey is still a state where lower turnout elections benefit the GOP, so I don't think it will work as well here.

Democrats don’t hold any Monmouth-Ocean Assembly districts (they technically have the senate seat due to the party switching Dem).  It’s Republicans that are at risk in the Dem leaning Monmouth Assembly seat.

Also keep in mind that the Camden/Gloucester seat with the retiring Dems still went for Biden by 7.

Forgot about all that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I live in LD-38, and I can tell you that the Democrats have been blanketing the airwaves with ads and mailboxes with mailers. Nothing from the Republicans.

However, the Republican candidates are significantly winning the yard sign wars. I don't kjow if that's a good indicator though since my town is Republican leaning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If you want another anecdotal observation, the New Jersey GOP is being very subtle in its advertising when it comes to displaying what party their candidates beling to. You really have to search in their mailers to find the "_{paid for by the Bergen County Republican Committee}." They are also making their yard signs blue this time around, where lower information voters might not even recognize which party the candidates beling to. It kind if reminds me of 2017 and 2018 when the party was at its lowest point.

Make of that what you will. I personally still expect a 2019 sort of year across the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

I may have misinterpreted it, but the fact that I am so confused by it kind of suggests a very muddled message. It was going for some kind of shock that Democrats passed a bill like that.

It's also a really desperate ploy for a state party that's supposed to be above the culture war bulls***.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

I'm going to embed this just because it's annoying when people don't, and plenty of people (like myself) won't click on naked YouTube links.

Sorry. I have to be honest, in my infinite technology ineptitude I never really figured out how to embed.

Okay, I'm starting to think that New Jersey Republicans are getting desperate, and not as well-positioned as they seem:

This is possibly the strangest pro-Republican ad I have ever seen, and I just got it before a Youtube video:

https://youtu.be/gLAEo_DJDW0?si=qIiBcyqxAukNvZyG

If you don't want to watch it, which I don't blame you, apparently a group supporting the New Jersey GOP are running pro-trans ads and somehow making the Democrats the problem. "Vote Republican to support trans rights?" Is this sabotage? I could see it as a primary ad for a Democrat to the left of an incumbent, but who exactly is this group trying to appeal to?

In what way is this ad "pro-trans"? It's referring to the Murphy administration suing any schools which inform parents of their children's gender identity, which has polled as one of the least popular policy positions anywhere in the country.

I may have misinterpreted it, but the fact that I am so confused by it kind of suggests a very muddled message. It was going for some kind of shock that Democrats passed a bill like that.

It's also a really desperate ploy for a state party that's supposed to be above the culture war bulls***.

I'm still not really sure which part you misinterpreted as pro-trans, but this has been a pretty major issue in the campaign thus far.

It didn't work out so well in races across the country last year, so I'm not sure what the New Jersey GOP thinks they'll get out of it this year. They do well because they're usually strictly on message about property taxes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just think that every moment the New Jersey Republicans are talking about this niche, complicated crap it's a moment taking away from what is usually a very effective winning message focused on cost-of-living and property taxes.

Meanwhile, Democrats, from what I've seen, are touting the anchor benefit program (something Murphy should have pressed more in 2021). Aren't "kitchen table issues" supposed to be more resonant?

But I guess it doesn't matter. It's probably going to be a 2019-esque year. The Republicans are going to turn out as they always do, but did they really need more galvanization from their trans obsession? That's really my point here. I suppose we'll see what that poll suggests.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just think that every moment the New Jersey Republicans are talking about this niche, complicated crap it's a moment taking away from what is usually a very effective winning message focused on cost-of-living and property taxes.

It's not niche nor complicated. The Attorney General of New Jersey sued school districts to stop them from informing parents about their children and is very proud of it. It was front page news across the state, and opposition to Platkin's suit has been a popular core to the Republican platform ever since. Basically the only person going to bat for him is Murphy.

Meanwhile, Democrats, from what I've seen, are touting the anchor benefit program (something Murphy should have pressed more in 2021). Aren't "kitchen table issues" supposed to be more resonant?

Their main focus is abortion. StayNJ is probably their second plank, but it had bipartisan support, doesn't do anything at all until 2026, and isn't actually guaranteed to go into effect at all.

Murphy also couldn't campaign on it in 2021; they only proposed and passed it this year. It was largely a response to his shock margin.

I swear I remember helping my mom file for it the year of that election, and when she got her refund in her account I said to myself: "why didn't Murphy and the Democrats campaign on this!?"

And evidently, abortion has definitely been the main tocus of the Demicrats this year, but they are at least trying to get residents to recognize what they've done in turn to address property tax concerns, previously they either ignored it or spoke in vagueries.

As for the whole trans school policy, evidently I was not privy to it. I'm curious if there have evenbeen any examples of it happening yet to justify this as the outrage it's being made out to be, or if it's still just theoretical as something that can happen which puts some at ease. Personally, if s child is more comfortable informing aneducator about their gender identity more than their parents, I would have to question how those parents would react and whether the child knows it would be worse for them to know or not. I don't care if that's controversial, I see right through the "parents rights" nonsense.

 It also seems like an incredibly astronomical possibility to even warrant being such concern, and it makes me want to vote against Republicans even more. I'm probably an outlier, but that was the first ad I saw from New Jersey Republicans all year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Okay, that poll is not nearly as "devastating" as it was implied to be.

Democrats should be fine, though will probably lose seats in two or so districts in both chambers. Like I said, a 2019-like result.

The poll was overhyped, though the effect on independents is absurdly huge. It's easy to forget that pollsters are doing marketing not objective reporting.

Still, a 2019 style loss from the current baseline puts the NJDP in the same place as the national Republican Party: an extremely slim majority with a broad coalition of interests that will have to stick together to a (wo)man. New Jersey doesn't really have true special elections which should relieve some pressure, but that's still not a good place to be in a safe state.

I've kind of just come to expect that. It seems like my state just always likes being counter to its Governor in off-years.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ah yes, a PPP poll commissioned by the state teachers union. A totally unbiased and accurate source that we should totally trust, right?

Average it with the FDU push poll, I say.

The reality is probably somewhere in between. I can see the policy being unpopular overall, but not exactly something that will motivate voters who aren't already staunch Republicans.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The early vote is eerily similar to both 2022 and 2021 so far.

18 days to the election:
2021: 238K, D+43.8 (65.5-21.7)
2022: 292K, D+45.0 (65.7-20.7)
2023: 241K, D+44.8 (66.0-21.8 )

Expecting a result similar to 2022.  Independents won’t be as Republican as 2021.

For sure. It also helps that Democrats are actually trying this year. Whether it works well enough is another story, but I think 2021 scared the state party a bit straight.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The early vote is eerily similar to both 2022 and 2021 so far.

18 days to the election:
2021: 238K, D+43.8 (65.5-21.7)
2022: 292K, D+45.0 (65.7-20.7)
2023: 241K, D+44.8 (66.0-21.8 )

Expecting a result similar to 2022.  Independents won’t be as Republican as 2021.

For sure. It also helps that Democrats are actually trying this year. Whether it works well enough is another story, but I think 2021 scared the state party a bit straight.

I think they might lose a seat or two but aren't going to lose the majority in either chamber in part due to they are running an actual campaign.

Even without trying they would probably keep the majorities. But yeah, I agree, there will certainly be net losses in both chambers perhaps, yet I doubt a Durr-Sweeney sort of upset this year.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The early vote is eerily similar to both 2022 and 2021 so far.

18 days to the election:
2021: 238K, D+43.8 (65.5-21.7)
2022: 292K, D+45.0 (65.7-20.7)
2023: 241K, D+44.8 (66.0-21.8 )

Expecting a result similar to 2022.  Independents won’t be as Republican as 2021.

For sure. It also helps that Democrats are actually trying this year. Whether it works well enough is another story, but I think 2021 scared the state party a bit straight.

I think they might lose a seat or two but aren't going to lose the majority in either chamber in part due to they are running an actual campaign.

Even without trying they would probably keep the majorities. But yeah, I agree, there will certainly be net losses in both chambers perhaps, yet I doubt a Durr-Sweeney sort of upset this year.

Eh, I don't know if that's likely; seems more likely than not that Dems may gain a seat, especially with them going on a rampage specifically in the Durr seat.

I'm very glass half empty when it comes to South Jersey's recent voting habits. But we'll see.

[Progressive Pessimist]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

so we are slightly above 2021. I don't think Republicans are going to get a majority in either chamber.

Maybe that Danny DeVito ad helped after all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

14 days to election:
2021: 269k (D+44.3, 65.6 - 21.3)
2022: 319k (D+45.1, 65.6 - 20.5)
2023: 279k (D+44.4, 65.8 - 21.4)

so we are slightly above 2021. I don't think Republicans are going to get a majority in either chamber.

Maybe that Danny DeVito ad helped after all.

What Danny devito ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuTL6__xlLk&pp=ygURRGFubnkgZGV2aXRvIHZvdGU%3D

[Progressive Pessimist]

To emphasize a point I made earlier about Republicans largely spending indirectly and being hard to compare, the total overall spend is $22M to $8M. Still a large Democratic advantage, but not zero on the Republican side as an earlier tweet here implied.

What was Murphy’s approval in Morning Consult?

I don’t think they’re making their data immediately public anymore.

I'm starting to get mailers from the Republicans nearly every day now-they seem to be ramping up. However, Democrats haven't stopped and I am still seeing their ads and mailers even more frequently.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I got an ad accusing New Jersey Democrats of being "radical." This is normal for both sides to do to each other, but Democrats are focusing on abortion in this regards and Republicans are going back to the gas stove thing...really?

[Progressive Pessimist]

NJ-38 looking like it could be a surprise flip to Republicans. That's Paramus.

This is my district, there's always a red mirage. If it couldn't flip in 2021, I find it unlikely to happen this year. There's much more vote to count though. It's taking forever.

NJ-38 looking like it could be a surprise flip to Republicans. That's Paramus.

LD-38 I should add. This is the district directly next to mine. Don't think I've seen any Lagana signs 🤔

I've seen several, though not as many as GOP signs. The LD-38 ticket has swept the airwaves and mailer game though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/SageOfTime1/status/1722128042552651827?t=TvOvf_efMMZSmeF60vs...



The party switcher should be obvious,  for those who don't know the situation.

The only result this year I was far off on! I really thought the Republicans would net at least one Senate seat and maybe two Assembly seats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A week later and we're still winning!

These results really make one question what the heck happened in 2021.

I think Democrats and Murphy underestimated Ciatarelli and the GOP, they sleepwalked when they shouldn't have been and let Ciatarelli and his party define the race. Certainly the election happening during Biden's first real slump didn't help either.