It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.
All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.
It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.