2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

The DCCC's target list seems to include two nonexistent congressmen:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1642865707976392704

Typos aside, this is a pretty good list. Though perhaps slightly too ambitious. I don't really see the Florida or Iowa seats being worth contesting in a presidential year.

And I'm kind of iffy on whether Steil and Van Ordern can be defeated with the current districts too. Work your magic, Judge Janet! Come on!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

Queen and possible Senator in 2026!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mary Peltola is the most popular Alaska politician. 54-30 job approval

https://twitter.com/ivanmoore1/status/1692288839665213761?s=46

Queen and possible Senator in 2026!

I don’t think it’d be smart to go in 2026. Probably 2028 when Murkowski probably retires. She knows she’s not winning a primary again when RCV is likely repealed.

I guess it would depend on who is in the White House. In a Trump midterm she could definitely pull it off.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

This is not a surprise, as Biden is a lot less popular than the generic Democrat. As it becomes clear that Biden will lose by October, undecided voters will start breaking towards Democrat downballot candidates to put a check on Trump.

Voters have been that obtuse before. I mean, it's such dumb logic-why vote for someone you want to be "checked?" But I think it's a bit different now that Trump has already served as President and continues to be a divisive presence. His entire toxic persona somehow being deemphasized because Biden is unpopular is just so absurd to me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427

Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Brutal numbers for Republicans in the latest Pennsylvania poll-

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1707425270028746847?s=20

Shapiro is very popular, hence the higher Democratic numbers. That doesn't mean that Biden is popular here.

Though he will be an important surrogate in the state and could make a difference.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You know, it wouldn't be the first time a Republican congressman from the Northeast named Scott went down because he acted like he was in a Safe R district...

 

That was one of the few bright spots of the 2016 elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1713607786653982994
He's obviously beyond DOA, but a part of me will miss the comic relief that he brings.

He is a true character. No writer could come up with someone like him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

It's probably the same as the "I hate Congress, but like my representative" way if thinking.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ah, great. This f--king guy.

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1717586000191390159?s=20

He makes my skin crawl. There's just something so uncanny valley about him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Has… anything like this ever happened before?
https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1747720686003478760

Any idea if he is going to do this from her left or right?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4425708-scott-perry-gop-house-seat-challenger-newman/

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) being challenged by another Republican in the primary,  This seat is vulnerable and the Dem primary is very crowded.  Scott Perry is one of the most extreme election denial/"Stop the Steal" types in the Congress (Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus) and he's too far to the right for the district.

It was Trump 51-47 in 2020, voted for Shapiro by 55-43, and for Oz 49-48.

If he doesn't get defeated in 2024, this is one of the top pickup opportunities in 2026 under Trump midterm!

I think Biden doesn’t need to win this district for Perry to lose. I’m getting Scott Garret vibes here

Ahh yes, Scott Garrett, who was defeated by Josh Gottheimer in 2016.  Hopefully this Scott ends up the way that Scott ended up (:

That result on my district was one of the few good things that happened that dreadful night in 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

This could be Lean R honestly. Luna is a weaker than normal candidate for her seat not unlike Boebert.

1. Colorado and Florida are very different places.

2. Luna isn't quite as ostentacious or infamous as Boebert has become.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

Residency issues in WI, PA, NV, and MI

NV is so transient that carpetbagging doesn't carry much of an electoral penalty there. And at least McCormick, Hovde and Rogers all grew up in their states. It's not like any of them are Dr. Oz. Even Slotkin herself faced pretty much the same residency questions when she first ran for Congress.

It's a matter of how you present yourself if that's the case though. Hovde and McCormick seemingly can't stop talking about how many houses they own in other states and even countries.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/stephen_neukam/status/1780382332962168917

Btw, there's an error on that tweet. Cruz raised $6.9 million, not 9.7.

Ouch!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/purrtah/status/1786337397502103849

But Democrats don't care about the abortion ban!

[Progressive Pessimist]

GOP staying out of Las Vegas is an interesting development

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1793695332447985787

So Trump’s supposedly ahead in the state by 7-12 points, but Republicans are triaging every competitive house seat in the state? Huh.

Ticket-splitting!

All these voters who apparently love Democrats not named Biden, and equally love Trump.