Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just wanted to say as someone who's "close to the action" that we shouldn't read too much into the early votes, as there will be a lot of crossover voting on this. It's really not breaking hard along traditional partisan lines, even though more Democrats will vote No and more Republicans will vote Yes.


Subjectively (in terms of seeing advertising in this media market and such), it seemed like the Yes campaign has been kind of a steady presence for months, while the No campaign seems to have suddenly ramped up very fast from being almost nonexistent to being huge and everywhere during the last two weeks or so. Take from that what you will. Last-minute momentum? Or a failing campaign desperate to save itself? I have no idea.

All I can really say about this referendum is that I'm surprised it hasn't attracted more national media attention given its high stakes and relevance.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just wanted to say as someone who's "close to the action" that we shouldn't read too much into the early votes, as there will be a lot of crossover voting on this. It's really not breaking hard along traditional partisan lines, even though more Democrats will vote No and more Republicans will vote Yes.


Subjectively (in terms of seeing advertising in this media market and such), it seemed like the Yes campaign has been kind of a steady presence for months, while the No campaign seems to have suddenly ramped up very fast from being almost nonexistent to being huge and everywhere during the last two weeks or so. Take from that what you will. Last-minute momentum? Or a failing campaign desperate to save itself? I have no idea.

All I can really say about this referendum is that I'm surprised it hasn't attracted more national media attention given its high stakes and relevance.

I believe CNN, MSNBC, TODAY, and GMA have all given in time in the last few days, so I would say it now has!

I guess I haven't watched enough news lately.

But anyway, I'm hoping for a "No" victory. It would mean a lot to women in general and the outlook for the future.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I haven't posted here since last night, but I am overjoyed at this result! I was way underestimating the good people of Kansas. I thought at best it would be a low single digit victory if it won at all. It's just the reassurance about the possibility of this year not being as bad as it could be that I need to stay sane.

I was cautiously, skeptically optimistic about Dobbs changing the midterms in deviating from the historical pattern but now I think the GOP awakened a sleeping giant with expecting voters to just accept their extreme views on certain issues while taking for granted that Americans will simply vote for them due to historical patterns and the economic issues in the country. It's another data point alongside generic ballot polling, the NE-1 special election, and head-to-head polls that suggest that the Dobbs decision was cataclysmic enough to shake-up this year's political environment. I should note though that how people vote on referendums and vote on candidates still aren't entirely comparable. But the point remains that Democrats are paying attention and turning out in elections they usually don't, which the GOP also might have taken for granted. It's about f***ing time! It still sucks that it took the worst case scenario to happen to lead to this though. Let's never let that happen again and be proactive. I can't imagine how much this would have been defeated if it occurred during the general election.

And, also very important, Kansas remains a bastion of sanity in the center of the country (well, if Kelly wins again, at least; chances of which may have increased) that will allow women to exercise freedom over their bodies.

But I really want to take a moment to bask in some schadenfreude and note some of the copium we're hearing from shocked Republicans:

1. "It was all the wording!:" I was worried about how that would affect this initiative myself, maybe it's Brexit PTSD, but I can't see such a blow-out like this occurring because apparently too many people are too stupid to bother reading the question or lack the comprehension for it. The wording was a bit complicated but that's where the campaign comes into play, to simplify what the vote is about and note potential consequences. The "yes" campaign clearly didn't do this well enough or have a message that appealed to enough people.

2. "Oh, well, you know Kansas isn't even that Republican!:" This is utterly ridiculous. When people think of a rural, conservative state in "flyover country" Kansas often comes to mind. The very optics of this are terrible and those are important in this country. Obviously the suburbs are why this initiative failed, areas which are growing, and results from rural areas closed the gap a bit as the night went on, but a 17 point margin-significantly exceeding Marshall's, Trump's, and Kelly's-makes it evident that rural parts of state aren't as gung-ho about Roe v. Wade's end as most GOP candidates seem to think. Roe v. Wade allowed for the many nuanced views on abortion that Americans have to exist simultaneously and now without it the status quo can be shaken up more than most people, even GOP voters, are comfortable with. And even if it isn't the most Republican state, which it evidently isn't, the result suggests that essentially every state to its left, and even some to the right, would see stronger rejections of an amendment like this. And that would be a majority of the states, and country's population. Sure, maybe Deep South states like Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi would pass it, or other amendments, that restrict, or end abortion access statewide, but it likely would be by smaller than expected margins. The Supreme Court erred greatly with Dobbs for so many reasons, but it's yielded a real "be careful what you wish for" scenario when it comes to how the GOP's political prospects may be affected by it. Hell, the result here might have actually been closer if the Dobbs ruling never happened.

But I welcome these excuses and mental gymnastics from the GOP. If they refuse to learn a lesson and change their ways then it makes it all that easier for American voters to recognize how extreme they are and they can be voted out of office and teach them about the ramifications of their methods through the only means they recognize-losing political power.

So overall this was one of the most positive developments of the year...and I think I might actually have some hope for the future. It's just a shame that Kobach might become a statewide official again...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Something that I think hasn’t been discussed much is how Dems are far more unified in their support of abortion than R’s are in their opposition of it. We’ve mentioned the pro-choice republicans crossing over but I also think these ballot measures are hindered by the fact that average Dem enthusiasm for the issue is higher than the average R enthusiasm for it.

The R base gets the reputation for being hard core pro-life but that only comes from a small-ish minority of the party, compared to Dems who are pretty much uniformly for it. There are a lot of right wing low propensity voters who might be casually pro-life or they think abortion isn’t a nice thing but still have a nuanced opinion of what the policy should be (I know someone like this actually). These people would never be turned off by a politician’s opinion on it but are hard to get to turn out for a primary/referendum.

What this means for this year is probably that Dems will be motivated anywhere that the issue is remotely considered to be on the ballot, and R’s will need people to turn out for other reasons to have a good chance

Republican politicians appear ignorant to the nuance that is found among most Americans on the issue, including their own base. Roe v. Wade allowed for this, to a degree, to be reflected in policy but now without it some states are going gung-ho in removing all nuance from their abortion policies and it's very much not what most of their residents want, I think it can be suggested. The issue is just that some voters are apathetic to voting on it as a priority and so will remain silent on whether they disagree or not.

But this referendum providing an outlet for that expression does back up the fact that Americans to some extent, often varying extents, still believe abortion should be legal in some capacity.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1569996369242488833

Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

That's all great, I just hope it can translate to candidate vs. candidate elections too. The special elections have suggested that is the case, but will the alleged GOP election day turnout surge negate that?

/tweet
Click to read the whole thread.  This has to be sending cold chills down some spines at RNC HQ.

I've said it before, but it'd be very amusing if there's all this anxiety about GOP polling errors when Dems could end up benefiting the most.

That would be glorious, but it's better to be cautious than overconfident. Overconfidence by the GOP is what is putting the midterm environment in such contention right now after all.