Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[wbrocks67]

Just figured it would be interesting to take a look at.

July 30th update, per Kansas SOS:

Total ballots cast to date: 244,990
R: 111,400 (45.5%)
D: 96,871 (39.5%)
Independent: 35,450 (14.5%)
L: 1,269 (0.5%)

Advance mail ballots returned
D: 30,932
R: 29,924
Independent: 8,618
L: 334

Advance ballots in person
R: 81,476
D: 65,939
Independent: 26,832
L: 935

Compared to 2018 (82.5k total) and 2020 (214.6K)

https://twitter.com/KansasSOS/status/1553453299998801923

[wbrocks67]

The fact that this is already outdoing 2020 is pretty incredible. Shows Dobbs is definitely motivating people. Looks like it's likely to be a close one either way, but Ds holding their own in the EV so far compared to the state registration edge.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Do you have a partisan breakdown for the 2020 early vote?

[Skill and Chance]

Not doing the early voting analysis thing anymore.  I'm just not. 

Also, I recall from 2020 that Kansas has a huge pro-Dem reporting bias in the early returns.  Biden was leading for a while.  Perhaps they count mail ballots first?  In any event, No would need to be leading substantially in the initial count.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Okay, from my research, the GOP had a 1,500 vote advantage in 2020 in the primary. They don't have independent data, so basically there's no data.

[It’s so Joever]

Dems are cooked if they can’t even do well with this.

[Unelectable Bystander]

What’s a normal partisan electorate in Kansas? If we use the poll cross tabs by party multiplied by these numbers, I think you come up short at like 45%. So to pass it R’s probably need to make up 55-60% of the vote (not sure if that’s realistic or not), or get to around 50% and get the percentage of R’s voting yes up to like 90% while still getting 33% of independents or so

[wbrocks67]

It looks like the final EV for 2020 in KS was R+10, though not a great comparison since you're likely to have a lot more crossover voting this year for the yes/no

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/KS.html

[Devout Centrist]

Dems are cooked if they can’t even do well with this.

It’s Kansas you bozo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still no KS Gov poll

No MD Gov, OR Gov or SC Gov pol

[Indy Texas]

Dems are cooked if they can’t even do well with this.

The assumption that nonvoters and marginal voters are always going to vote for Democrats is part of the reason Trump didn't lose as badly as people expected him to.

[wbrocks67]

8/1 update

Total ballots cast to date: 271,438
R: 122,677 (45.2%)
D: 106,800 (39.3%)
Independent: 40,504 (14.9%)
L: 1,457 (0.5%)

Advance mail ballots returned
D: 32,703
R: 31,247
Independent: 9,121
L: 356

Advance ballots in person
R: 91,430
D: 74,097
Independent: 31,383
L: 1,101

[Hope For A New Era]

Just wanted to say as someone who's "close to the action" that we shouldn't read too much into the early votes, as there will be a lot of crossover voting on this. It's really not breaking hard along traditional partisan lines, even though more Democrats will vote No and more Republicans will vote Yes.


Subjectively (in terms of seeing advertising in this media market and such), it seemed like the Yes campaign has been kind of a steady presence for months, while the No campaign seems to have suddenly ramped up very fast from being almost nonexistent to being huge and everywhere during the last two weeks or so. Take from that what you will. Last-minute momentum? Or a failing campaign desperate to save itself? I have no idea.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just wanted to say as someone who's "close to the action" that we shouldn't read too much into the early votes, as there will be a lot of crossover voting on this. It's really not breaking hard along traditional partisan lines, even though more Democrats will vote No and more Republicans will vote Yes.


Subjectively (in terms of seeing advertising in this media market and such), it seemed like the Yes campaign has been kind of a steady presence for months, while the No campaign seems to have suddenly ramped up very fast from being almost nonexistent to being huge and everywhere during the last two weeks or so. Take from that what you will. Last-minute momentum? Or a failing campaign desperate to save itself? I have no idea.

All I can really say about this referendum is that I'm surprised it hasn't attracted more national media attention given its high stakes and relevance.

[wbrocks67]

Just wanted to say as someone who's "close to the action" that we shouldn't read too much into the early votes, as there will be a lot of crossover voting on this. It's really not breaking hard along traditional partisan lines, even though more Democrats will vote No and more Republicans will vote Yes.


Subjectively (in terms of seeing advertising in this media market and such), it seemed like the Yes campaign has been kind of a steady presence for months, while the No campaign seems to have suddenly ramped up very fast from being almost nonexistent to being huge and everywhere during the last two weeks or so. Take from that what you will. Last-minute momentum? Or a failing campaign desperate to save itself? I have no idea.

All I can really say about this referendum is that I'm surprised it hasn't attracted more national media attention given its high stakes and relevance.

I believe CNN, MSNBC, TODAY, and GMA have all given in time in the last few days, so I would say it now has!

[Person Man]

Wonder how it’s going.

[It’s so Joever]

Using my Snapchat Map scan which did well in finding trends in Georgia and Florida that were unexpected in 2020, it does appear there is a lot of momentum and energy to vote. Huge turnout in Johnson County, seems like NO has strong support. Still there is high turnout everywhere relative to what I expected. I know this is basically like reading tea leaves, but at least it’s not Quinnipiac.

[perpetual_cynic]

Using my Snapchat Map scan which did well in finding trends in Georgia and Florida that were unexpected in 2020, it does appear there is a lot of momentum and energy to vote. Huge turnout in Johnson County, seems like NO has strong support. Still there is high turnout everywhere relative to what I expected. I know this is basically like reading tea leaves, but at least it’s not Quinnipiac.

I'm not sure how similar Western Kansas is culturally to Eastern Colorado, but if Western and Central rural Kansas votes similar to Eastern Colorado in the 2020 Proposition 115 (22-Week Abortion Ban) two years ago, then the No might win. There were counties in Eastern Colorado where Trump got ~90% of the vote but the abortion ban only 70-75%.

[It’s so Joever]

Using my Snapchat Map scan which did well in finding trends in Georgia and Florida that were unexpected in 2020, it does appear there is a lot of momentum and energy to vote. Huge turnout in Johnson County, seems like NO has strong support. Still there is high turnout everywhere relative to what I expected. I know this is basically like reading tea leaves, but at least it’s not Quinnipiac.

I'm not sure how similar Western Kansas is culturally to Eastern Colorado, but if Western and Central rural Kansas votes similar to Eastern Colorado in the 2020 Proposition 115 (22-Week Abortion Ban) two years ago, then the No might win. There were counties in Eastern Colorado where Trump got ~90% of the vote but the abortion ban only 70-75%.

It’s basically the same. In fact I consider anything east of Limon to be de facto Kansas.

[Gass3268]

Republican group was sending misleading texts saying that the pro-choice side was to vote Yes

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1554546070503493633?s=20&t=-PD98_...

[SnowLabrador]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

[Matty]

I didn't realize similar amendment elections took place in WV and TN in 2018 and passed by only very small margins.

Should bode well for "No" in a state like kansas that isn't quite as conservative as those 2 states.

Also...just saw that in 2004, SD only voted for it by 7% while bush carried state by 22%

[Matty]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

High turnout in Johnson county means something: it means the rest of the state likely has high turnout too.

I remember in 2021 VA election day, twitter accounts like umichvoter were spamming falls church turnout reports.

[Gass3268]

Not sure if this is a right place, but it appears a KS state senator will run as a "True Conservative" third party option in November.

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1554504349409087489?s=20&t=jwEQdmhlg...

[Alben Barkley]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

IDK what you're talking about. I called Youngkin winning before the polls closed, it was nothing like this. When even Lurker stops dooming based on encouraging signs and you keep on dooming on anyway... I mean come on, man.