Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hope and reality are often opposites in election results.

Can I add this to my signature?

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

So basically, just like 2020 in the U.S. then?

And that is not good in a country with an even more unhinged right wing populist leader who actually has the support of the military.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think my biggest concern going into the runoff is what election evening will look like on the 30th. We already saw Bolsonaro overperforming by five percent early yesterday before gradually losing ground to later-reporting Lula areas. If the election is close enough and there really is a threat of some sort of anti-democratic action by Bolsonaro and his supporters, they will likely (like Trump) use the mirage of an early Bolsonaro lead to enact whatever plan they might have in the works.

I am in complete agreement.

I still have a decent amount of confidence in Lula winning in the end, but given the already eerily uncanny parallels to our election in 2020, Bolsonaro is going to be capable of January 6 on crack, meth, PCP, and steroids.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm taking Brazilian polls with a grain of salt, like I do American polls, but that 50 or 51% number is always important to note. As long as Lula maintains that he should win, even if Bolsonaro over-performs again. Well...if Bolsonaro allows him to win...

[Progressive Pessimist]

I believe the PoderData topline is 48-44 Lula and 52-48 Lula w/o undecides.

Yep:
https://twitter.com/eixopolitico/status/1577990274764218368

However, this poll is a bit scratchy. Tebet voters, which include a few PSDB voters, going 90-10% to Lula, while Ciro voters are like 50-50% is a bit odd. Anyway, I'm taking the polls with a huge grain of salt.

Oof, I think a Bolsonaro victory can't be ruled out this point anymore. Given how much the polls previously underestimated him.

Well, they did still get Lula's percentage right. So if he is at 51% or more, he should be okay. But it's not the mandate he would need to avoid Bolsonaro instigating a political crisis. Then again, Lula probably could have won by a landslide in the first round and that would still happen. Maybe the runoff was for the best because it at least delays the shenanigans.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/jairbolsonaro/status/1577678646319489027

Lula was President of Brazil for 8 years and Brazil was arguably at its most prosperous when he was President - who would believe this BS?

Bolsonaro supporters, obviously. They are not right in the head. Right wing populism is an illness.