Hot take (apparently): None. Nevada is still titanium lean D, and even more so if Democrats don't take it for granted like in 2020, and invest even just a slight bit into the state.
"Which Democrat can win Georgia? None. It's titanium lean R".
FTR, I don't think it's a pure toss up either, but it's the most likely flip of any Clinton 2016 state and it's far from impossible.
Georgia has consistently been trending the Democrats' way though, with a significant swing from 2016 to 2020 that allowed Biden to carry it. Nevada, meanwhile, swung a fraction of a percentage to the GOP in that same time while losing ground in Washoe County. And whatever gains were made in Clark County could conceivably be undone if Democrats contest the state even slightly more in 2024.
I do agree that it's easily the flimsiest Clinton state, but I still stand firm that it's lean D.
