Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Progressive Pessimist]

First it was the Kansas amendment, then it was Pat Ryan winning, and now Sarah Palin going through yet another humiliating election defeat. I have been in a nonstop high for nearly a month now.

Dark Brandon August, ladies and gentlemen.

Let's hope he can keep it up through September, October, November, and onward.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Inflation is higher than in 2020, people are worse off if we just look at the economy. If this recovery helps though, it could mean that people don't think about it with the 'are you better off than you were four years ago?' cliche but instead just look at if the economy is better than a few months ago.

Americans' short-term memories, even though it's something I often deride, may actually be working to Democrats' benefit this time, so long as economic factors continue in a positive direction.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morrissey is a groomer freak and I pray he doesn't win the nomination

People with the surname Morrissey seem to always be weirdos for some reason.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Candidate filing has officially ended. Here’s who filed:
https://twitter.com/ElectionsUtah/status/1669133187342274560

I would have loved to see Utah, of all states, elect someone named Remy Bubba Kush to office.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It sure would have been interesting to have who would be the biggest "RINO" in the House in a safe R seat. I guess we can take solace that she did as well as she did.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If the Republican over performs the media narrative will be that this is evidence of voter backlash against Biden and that he’s doomed. If the Democrat over performs, it will mean nothing because low turnout. Just preparing you all

If the result is around R +9 then it will be an indication that polls are accurate.

This district was Trump +17. That would be a very healthy underperformance by the Republican and certainly wouldn’t track with national polling having Trump up.

The polls that have Trump up also have Democrats doing well downballot, and show that Biden's weaknesses are entirely concentrated among those who didn't show up in 2022.

100% of everyone who didn't vote in special elections, 2022, or 2023 are Republican-we know!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ah, so suddenly special elections matter again now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We've certainly seen some overperformances (VA-04, MS, KY, PA) but we've also seen a 'break even' performance (RI-01) and several underperformances (VA leg compared to Biden 2020 numbers, NY county executives, LA, and tonight's race compared to 2020 and ML 2022). This is a very mixed verdict for Ds overall. Remember how slim Biden's winning margins were in several crucial states. Even the slightest declines could have potential to sink him. This isn't really convincing for '24 from Biden's perspective.

I tend to think the incumbent party holding thier own in competitive races is a good sign.

I mean it's not a bad sign, but this year clearly isn't 2017 when Dems were overperforming across the board. Certainly signals that any Biden 2024 win will be a narrow one that will place the GOP squarely in control of the Senate and limit D gains in the House.

You're discerning that from a special election in a safe R Utah district? After a very favorable election day two weeks ago where Democrats won almost entirely across the board?

Let's see how a NY-3 special goes if Santos is removed, what do you reckon?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/_fat_ugly_rat_/status/1727172159074930921

Given the ease of voting in UT and it being an all VBM election, this doesn't seem too surprising

Given Republicans' recent insistence that they're the high turnout benefitting party, you'd think they'd be championing vote-by-mail across the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

McIver sounds like "McGyver" and therefore I will be disappointed if I don't see campaign material from her taking advantage of that.