Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

I'm not forgetting it, that's entirely my point-lots can happen in a year between election cycles.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I was constantly told how old and unpopular I was, I'd probably sit the election out too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Split Ticket predicts Democrats win, 51-49 in the House and 22-18 in the Senate

https://split-ticket.org/2023/11/03/our-november-2023-state-legislative-and-referendum-elections-preview/

That's my exact prediction too.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't have much else to say about the Virginia elections tomorrow, I'm just posting here to take a moment and note how amazing the name Chaz Nuttycombe is.

That's the name of a cereal mascot.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trying to spin Virginia Democrats' performance last night into a disappointment is like if Ned Lamont last year "underperformed" because he ran seven points behind Biden, who was running in a presidential year.