Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Progressive Pessimist]

These jokers said Biden would win PA by 7. Why should I believe anything they say?

It's also pretty suspect that Biden is somehow more popular in North Carolina than in New Hampshire.

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeWine handled COVID-19 well, and politicians who meet a real problem well generally get re-elected.

It's Ohio. He would get re-elected even if he failed miserably. However, isn't he relatively unpopular with Trump cultists to the point that he might get a primary challenge? I'm sure he'll survive it and that they'll vote for him anyway in the general election, but it's a real microcosm of what the Republican Party of today is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hate to say it but Alice Stefanic has stopped the bleeding of the R party, the polls were going in the wrong direction with Liz Cheney, but now, with a steady Caucus chair, at least in the H, Rs can win the Majority

Throw IPSOS IN THE TRASH

And if Rs win the H there goes Hunter Biden probe

She's just the worst, isn't she?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's Ron Johnson. He does look DOA for the 2022 midterm election. 

I wish. If he runs again, just based on how Wisconsin behaves during likely Republican midterm years, it will be lean R at best. Wisconsin deserves better than him, but they don't care when his seat is up. They gladly chose him over a massive freedom fighter like Russ Feingold twice!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden Approval by State (MAY 21, 2021)

State Average Net Approvals:

NOTES: The date shown is the final date of polling if available, and if not available, then the date of being published is used. All polls taken within the last six months are listed (if one pollster has taken more than one poll of a particular state within the last six months, then only the most recent poll from that pollster is listed). A state's total net approval rating is taken by taking a simple average of all listed polls' results. Only presidential approval or job approval is used. States are listed in alphabetical order. Only polls conducted after January 06 are included.

ARIZONA: +12.0%

• OH Predictive Insights (Mar. 12): Biden+16% (55% Approve, 39% Disapprove)
• Data For Progress (May 05): Biden+8% (53% Approve, 45% Disapprove)

CALIFORNIA: +22.0%

• Public Policy Institute of California (Mar. 23): Biden+22% (60% Approve, 38% Disapprove)

COLORADO: +24.0%

• Data For Progress (May 05): Biden+24% (61% Approve, 37% Disapprove)

FLORIDA: +0.3%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Mar. 10): Biden-2% (47% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
• Cygnal (Apr. 11): Biden+1.0% (49.4% Approve, 48.4% Disapprove)
• Florida Atlantic University (May 02): Biden+1.9% (44.5% Approve, 42.6% Disapprove)

GEORGIA: +8.5%

• Atlanta Journal Constitution (May 03): Biden+5% (51% Approve, 46% Disapprove)
• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden+12% (54% Approve, 42% Disapprove)

IOWA: +3.0%

• Des Moines Register with Selzer (Mar. 10): Biden+3% (47% Approve, 44% Disapprove)

KENTUCKY: -10.0%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Feb. 04): Biden-10% (39% Approve, 49% Disapprove)

MASSACHUSETTS: +28.0%

• University of Massachusetts - Amherst (Mar. 09): Biden+28% (62% Approve, 34% Disapprove)

MICHIGAN: +8.3%

• Public Policy Polling (Feb. 03): Biden+9% (53% Approve, 44% Disapprove)
• Marketing Resource Group (Mar. 18): Biden+9% (50% Approve, 41% Disapprove)
• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden+7% (52% Approve, 45% Disapprove)

MISSISSIPPI: -21.0%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Feb. 05): Biden-21% (35% Approve, 56% Disapprove)

MONTANA: -16.0%

• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden-16% (42% Approve, 58% Disapprove)

NEVADA: +7.0%

• WPA Intelligence (Mar. 01): Biden+7% (47% Approve, 40% Disapprove)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: +6.0%

• St. Anselm College (Mar. 06): Biden+1% (50% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
• University of New Hampshire (Mar. 22): Biden+8% (53% Approve, 45% Disapprove)
• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden+9% (54% Approve, 45% Disapprove)

NEW JERSEY: +16.0%

• Stockton University (Mar. 22): Biden+16% (53% Approve, 37% Disapprove)

• Monmouth University (May 04): Biden+16% (55% Approve, 39% Disapprove)

NORTH CAROLINA: +11.7%

• Elon University (Jan. 31): Biden+16% (49% Approve, 33% Disapprove)
• HighPoint University (Feb. 26): Biden+11% (48% Approve, 37% Disapprove)
• Meredith College (Mar. 15): Biden+16% (55.5% Approve, 39.5% Disapprove)
• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden+17% (57% Approve, 40% Disapprove)
• Cygnal (May 08): Biden-1.7% (47.7% Approve, 49.4% Disapprove)

OKLAHOMA: -15.4%

• Amber Integrated (Mar. 28): Biden-15.4% (37.6% Approve, 53.0% Disapprove)

PENNSYLVANIA: +11.0%

• Data For Progress (May 05): Biden+11% (54% Approve, 43% Disapprove)

TEXAS: -1.0%

• University of Texas (Mar. 26): Biden±0% (44% Approve, 44% Disapprove)
• UT-Tyler (Apr. 22): Biden-2% (44% Approve, 46% Disapprove)

SOUTH DAKOTA: -10.0%

• Spry Strategies (Feb. 03): Biden-10.0% (42.4% Approve, 52.4% Disapprove)

UTAH: -16.0%

• Deseret News/Hinckley Institute (Mar. 31): Biden-16% (40% Approve, 56% Disapprove)

VIRGINIA: +19.0%

• Wason Center (Feb. 14): Biden+21% (57% Approve, 36% Disapprove)
• Roanoke College (Mar. 02): Biden+17% (47% Approve, 30% Disapprove)

WASHINGTON: +29.0%

• SurveyUSA (May 05): Biden+29% (58% Approve, 29% Disapprove)

WEST VIRGINIA: -25.0%

• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden+24% (37% Approve, 62% Disapprove)

WISCONSIN: +7.5%

• Public Policy Polling (Feb. 09): Biden+2% (47% Approve, 45% Disapprove)
• Data For Progress (May 04): Biden+13% (56% Approve, 43% Disapprove)

MAP

Image Link

Key:

30% green shade: Biden up 2.0 - 4.9%
40% green shade: Biden up 5.0 - 9.9%
50% green shade: Biden up 10.0 - 14.9%
60% green shade: Biden up 15.0 - 19.9%
70% green shade: Biden up 20.0 - 24.9%
80% green shade: Biden up 25.0 - 29.9%
90% green shade: Biden up 30.0%+

50% yellow shade: Average Net Approval between -1.9% and +1.9%

30% red shade: Biden down 2.0 - 4.9%
40% red shade: Biden down 5.0 - 9.9%
50% red shade: Biden down 10.0 - 14.9%
60% red shade: Biden down 15.0 - 19.9%
70% red shade: Biden down 20.0 - 24.9%
80% red shade: Biden down 25.0 - 29.9%
90% red shade: Biden down 30.0%+

Taking these as accurate, Florida continues to just be so very aggravating.

Also I don't know what kind of appeal Biden has in Colorado, but that state is really looking like it should be renamed Biden Country. It's crazy that he might be more popular there than in my own state!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Taking these as accurate, Florida continues to just be so very aggravating.

We're just that based             

Also I don't know what kind of appeal Biden has in Colorado, but that state is really looking like it should be renamed Biden Country. It's crazy that he might be more popular there than in my own state!

Singular polls can do that, especially polls conducted by "Data for Progress".

Sure, but as I said, I'm taking these polls as accurate for the post. I imagine that the numbers probably aren't all that accurate, given the pollster's track record.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1396933645269495808

I don't think we can automatically assume that the other 46% necessarily hate Biden, but it's striking that this is the percentage, more or less, that Trump got in both of his elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quinnipiac, May 18-24, 1316 adults (change from mid-April)

Adults:

Approve 49 (+1)
Disapprove 41 (-1)

Strongly approve 34 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 34 (-2)

GCB: D 49, R 40


RV (N not specified):

Approve 49 (-1)
Disapprove 42 (nc)

Strongly approve 35 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-1)

GCB: D 50, R 41

F***ing Quinnipiac! This poll makes no sense in how relatively bad it is for Biden yet incredibly good for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot it is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Enten explains it this way: Hispanics tend to swing toward an incumbent in a race involving an incumbent after swinging toward a the party out of office in an open-seat election. 

This does seem to be a pattern, among most voters of color actually. I just think it's too early to somehow think this will be inevitable on top of the polling industry not yet earning trust back.

Still, even with all that, I don't think we should anticipate any Democratic nominee or President to ever do as well as Obama did with most voters of color. Let's keep our expectations grounded.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, there's no way Biden is that middlingly popular in a state he won by a post-1964 record margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 2-3, 1005 adults

Approve 54 (+2)
Disapprove 42 (-2)

Approval by party:

D: 88 (+3)
I: 55 (+7)
R: 16 (+1)

Last week's poll looked like an outlier at the time, and still does.

You know that we're in polarized times when 16% of Republicans approving of Biden makes him look like Eisenhower.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1401546847240458241

As pessimistic as I am in perpetuity (obviously), I do think that there is a nonzero chance of this. Perhaps Biden and the Democrats can seize upon the pandemic's downturn like Bush and the GOP did with 9/11 and national security in 2002. I can't find it in me to hold my breath for that though. Our country is too polarized and it's unlikely that redistricting will benefit the Democrats when it's all said and done.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden underwater in New Hampshire

Among New Hampshire voters, 52% now say they have an unfavorable opinion of President Biden, with 47% saying they have a favorable opinion.

https://jbartlett.org/2021/06/n-h-voters-lost-trust-in-media-helping-drive-biden-favorability-below-50/

I hardly believe he lost that much ground in a state won by seven. This would make sense if his national approval ratings were in low or mid 40s at best.

But remember, for as inaccurate as polls are, they are only always accurate when they back up a Republican narrative apparently.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I want to know who the 1% are that never heard of Biden?

...probably just woke up from a coma

I envy them. I wish I could have been in a coma for the past four years. Actually, keep me in that coma, things still aren't all that worth experiencing...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, pbower2A, your Whitmer can lose and so can Hassan, D's are in a sort of denial about Whitmer chances

Granholm almost lost to Devos in 2006, too, I remember

*Chef's kiss*

You're a true auteur, Olawakandi.

[Progressive Pessimist]

2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

[Progressive Pessimist]

2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

2002 was a break from the trend. Although 2002 saw Bush with approvals in the 60s and a decent economy. However, if Biden remains popular and the economy remains good, Dems have a chance of holding both chambers.

Relying too heavily on past election results won't always make for a prediction come true.

Also, imo, a lot of the seats making up Dems current slim majority are trending in their favor, so I struggle to see more than like 10 seats that will flip in 2022. Of course thats enough to flip the chamber, but it's not enough to guarantee a flip in chamber control.

Redistricting is a real wild card here. I don't think Democrats will end up drawn out as badly as last decade, but they could still be disadvantaged enough to make a difference.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Republicans will never be more popular than Democrats. But they don't have to be. Their cultish hatred to anything progressive (no matter how sensationalized) will drive them to the polls. A lot of Dems or Dem voters aren't obsessed with politics (as we see with MSNBC ratings crashing). All Republicans need is an apathetic electorate combined with their voter restriction policies.

Agreed 100%. That's why Democrats need to do some scare-mongering of their own in 2022. It's the only chance we have at a GOP Congress not transforming the country into an autocracy, and the fear is actually warranted.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Haha! Wow! I guess the "Biden's agenda has stalled!" media narrative (even though it's true) isn't really hurting him after all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

I'm not one to reassure people very often, but Biden being at least somewhat popular on the economy, and very popular with the pandemic handling (though both go hand-in-hand, really) are just about the only numbers that matter in elections anymore. 2024 is still ways away but if the ever-important "direction of the country" number is positive by then and continues being perceived popularly on the economy, and with approvals overall; I think he'll be favored for re-election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's see, this is just one poll, though the numbers on the economy and China aren't great. As is immigration.

I'm not one to reassure people very often, but Biden being at least somewhat popular on the economy, and very popular with the pandemic handling (though both go hand-in-hand, really) are just about the only numbers that matter in elections anymore. 2024 is still ways away but if the ever-important "direction of the country" number is positive by then and continues being perceived popularly on the economy, and with approvals overall; I think he'll be favored for re-election.

2022 is all that matters right now.

Of course. Though Biden's approvals may factor into that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden's agenda has stalled. Where is the transformational President who we were hearing wanted to remembered like FDR for providing reforms and policy changes for regular Americans? He isn't using all the tools in his toolbox to get meaningful things passed.

You can blame Manchin and Sinema above all else, almost single-handedly, honestly. I don't know if most Americans will assign that blame where it belongs, but this is the reality of our current state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden's agenda has stalled. Where is the transformational President who we were hearing wanted to remembered like FDR for providing reforms and policy changes for regular Americans? He isn't using all the tools in his toolbox to get meaningful things passed.

You can blame Manchin and Sinema above all else, almost single-handedly, honestly. I don't know if most Americans will assign that blame where it belongs, but this is the reality of our current state.

Nobody should have expected Biden to get anything done other than the COVID relief bill.  The days of “transformational presidents” who get a lot done are over.

Agreed. Basically his agenda is done after the infrastructure bill, assuming that even passes in whatever form. I would have hoped that Americans would have grounded their expectations after Obama. But even saying that Biden is delivering on a bunch of things Trump promised for four years: an end to the war in Afghanistan, infrastructure, vaccine rollout, etc. So it's not like he isn't doing anything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), July 7-8, 1004 adults

Approve 52 (+1)
Disapprove 43 (+1)

Approval by party:

D: 91 (+2)
I: 44 (+10, but an obvious fluke last week; two weeks ago it was 45)
R: 13 (-5, lowest to date)

Polarization is setting in

Yet him having 13% approval by Republicans is still pretty massive in the face of this polarization. Compare that to Trump who was lucky to be in the high single digits among Democrats' approval.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s a shame that we won’t get these approvals for much longer with trump being reinstated on august 13

That's the day before my birthday. That's one hell of a way to trigger this lib!