Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is officially back?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1613398525617864706

Until the media squeezes every drop possible out of Documentgate when it catches up with him.

Or it could be another Hunter's laptop and fizzle out.

It's early enough in the year and there is enough time for it to sort itself out, especially before the 2024 election, but this is much more substantial and directly related to President Biden than his son's laptop.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is officially back?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1613398525617864706

Until the media squeezes every drop possible out of Documentgate when it catches up with him.

Or it could be another Hunter's laptop and fizzle out.

It's early enough in the year and there is enough time for it to sort itself out, especially before the 2024 election, but this is much more substantial and directly related to President Biden than his son's laptop.

I fail to see how this benefits Trump. His scandals aren't just going to go away because of this and I don't think he's won himself any new voters either in the primary or the general.

It might not win him any new voters but it does give credence to "both sides bad" sentiment and that worked to Trump's favor in 2016, and could again in 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Biden is officially back?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1613398525617864706

Until the media squeezes every drop possible out of Documentgate when it catches up with him.

Or it could be another Hunter's laptop and fizzle out.

It's early enough in the year and there is enough time for it to sort itself out, especially before the 2024 election, but this is much more substantial and directly related to President Biden than his son's laptop.

I fail to see how this benefits Trump. His scandals aren't just going to go away because of this and I don't think he's won himself any new voters either in the primary or the general.

It might not win him any new voters but it does give credence to "both sideis bad" sentiment and that worked to Trump's favor in 2016, and could again in 2024.

How does this help him in the primary against DeSantis?

It doesn't, but I was operating on the assumption of Trump still getting the nomination anyway in the previous hypothetical.

If anything, DeSantis is truly the real beneficiary since he can now say that he can handle classified documents better than either of the old men he intends on running against.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good to see. Hopefully Americans' shortsidedness and goldfish memories actually end up helping a Democrat for once.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Qunnipiac has Biden approval rating at 38/53 among RV (last poll in December was 43/49)

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01182023_regvoter_upoz26.pdf

I think I jinxed it...

[Progressive Pessimist]

What, if anything, could boost his approval ratings above 50% before November 2024?

The only thing I could think of is if Russia fully retreats from Ukraine and Zelensky directly credits Biden for it. Even then I’m not sure. Part of me feels that Biden could literally authorize funding that leads to a cancer cure and not get back above 50%.

Given what he accomplished legislatively, the jobs market, cooling inflation, the leadership in Ukraine as well as around the world and the Republican gross incompetence and their lack of will to seriously govern, Biden should actually be headed for a landslide reelection.

Key-word: "should."

It's not going to happen. Let's just be happy that he has the potential to win at all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obama warned Biden today at their lunch not to underestimate Trump, even if he goes to prison. His numbers are not looking good. But the bright side is that there is a while until election day.

Obama is right, but I also don't think the Biden campaign ever intended on treating Trump with kid gloves. Emphasizing the important stakes of the 2024 election and how much Trump has changed and polarized our politics is integral to a Democratic victory in 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Monmouth: 41% approve and 52% disapprove in... New Jersey.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_081723/

They've had pretty bad approval for him in New Jersey for a while now. I could understand he's not doing so hot there given the status of nationwide, but 41/52 is essentially what his nationwide average is right now, so the same in NJ wouldn't make much sense.

Weird poll because it has Murphy +10 which seems about right but Booker at only +7. He's one of the most inoffensive Dem senators, especially for Jersey, so that also seems pretty low.

Yeah it's weird that Booker's not higher. In general I'm not sure why Booker has never caught on with a national audience. We'd be in much better shape if he'd been the nominee in 2020 IMO and I have no idea why he did so poorly in the primary, it's really baffling to me

Booker/Klobuchar would've been great.

Booker's time was probably in 2016. Though I am of the somewhat controversial opinion that he was one of the few other Democrats who could have won in 2020 against Trump with all other circumstances being the same.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Rasmussen has Biden at 49-49, first time he hadn’t been negative since April.

It’s official: President Biden is BACK!

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/biden_administration/biden_approval_index_history

Unironically this could end up true between the government shutdown (if Americans understand that the GOP House is truly to blame, entirely), the embarrassing impeachment inquiry attempt, Trump calling for the execution of a top general, and the strikes all blow up in the Republicans' face as they should.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I was 50 pages behind apparently but I finally clicked into this again when I was Ras has him even. Like what? lol. i guess it's an outlier.

It probably is, though I stand by my previous post suggesting that circumstances could come back around to being positive for Biden. Or, at the very least, make Trump and his party look worse.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think these are all that have been released in the last 24 hours:

Rasmussen: 49/48 (+1)
NewsNation: 43/57 (-14)
Harris/Messenger: 40/56 (-16)
TIPP: 36/54 (-18)

TIPP's is a pretty wild swing; they just had -9 not even a month ago.

Yeah, Rasmussen as an outlier confirmed. Still a weird thing for them of all places to find that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think his approval should be much higher than it is, but people aren't entertained enough by him. That plus miscommunication about what Biden has accomplished that helps the American people. People got used to Trump's entertainment factor, even though he his administration was sheer chaos, and they view Biden as just an old man. The stupidity of it all.

It is indeed frustrating. Americans continue to prioritize personality above everything, as if the President absolutely has to be a force of personality. I initially though that way of thinking was kaput after the more benign Biden defeated the larger-than-life Trump in 2020. It's always been rare for the less animated candidate to win.

Then again, the 2022 midterms should have been a referendum on Biden who was similarly unpopular, yet he seemed to be a smaller factor. Maybe there are benefits to being a subdued President in the post-Trump era, but I guess the 2024 election will have the last word on that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The decline is nearly all concentrated on the Democratic side. Gallup's conclusion, pretty reasonable, is that with the party approving more of Palestine than Israel for the first time this year, Biden's strong support for Israel has created a rift with the new young, pro-Palestine voting group.

Even if he does ultimately win re-election next year over Trump, Joe Biden could well be the last openly pro-Israel President the Democratic Party will ever have.  I am not sure how to feel about that prospect.     

Well, maybe when Israel finally ditches Netanyahu and Likud-led coalition governments (which now looks increasingly likely) they can try and salvage what they can of a two-state solution and make it easier for a Democrat to support Israel. Maybe.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm still interested in how much of Biden's disapproval is among people who think he doesn't go far enough. I know quite a few who would not say they approve of him, because they want someone more progressive. I mean, I'm one of them, though I don't *disapprove*, I just don't approve.

The approvals for other Ds and the 2022 results seem to point to it being a sizable portion of the population, at least.

If tomorrow's elections reflect 2022 in not being particularly nationalized, I think there will be even more credence to this notion.

I've been thinking the same thing that Biden just isn't on people's minds as often as Trump was and that causes his disapproval to be based more out if indifference and ambivalence than seething hatred (though obviously Republicans have that for him).

[Progressive Pessimist]

I must admit, I thought his approvals would have improved by this time. Perhaps we have to be more patient. Otherwise, he's going to win 2024 only because Trump is even less popular.

Honestly, that was probably always going to be the case when his honeymoon phase ended.

[Progressive Pessimist]

WOW!
https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1752480884182131152?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

Hopefully it's a trend and not just an outlier.

[Progressive Pessimist]

WOW!
https://twitter.com/iapolls2022/status/1752480884182131152?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6yY...

Hopefully it's a trend and not just an outlier.

It's a trend. We all knew this would happen as we get closer to the election.

I've been saying this since the 2022 midterms, despite my username. We just have to be patient and it might finally be paying off.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Given the continued decline in Biden’s approval polling, I think this can safely be called the worst SOTU (politically) since Ford or Carter.

See the weird thing is initially after watching it, I thought it was a decent speech. But it appears he may have been a bit too divisive which left a bad taste in people's mouths in contrast to his 2020 campaign focused on unity.

Also I sometimes wonder how on earth was Biden able to have a pretty high approval rating for most of 2021? It seems Afghanistan threw him off a cliff he never managed to recover from.

The frustration continues for me. I am baffled at what was so "divisive" about the speech. There was a lot of red meat for the Democratic base, as that's what the speech was meant to shore up and reassure, but the goals, accomplishments, and concepts he espoused really weren't discussed in a firebrand Bernie Sanders sort of way that were meant to exclude anyone except Trump's most zealous supporters, perhaps.

Is promoting a raised minimum wage, affordable health care, reproductive access, a ceasefire for all sides in Israel-Palestine, better pay for teachers, tuition forgiveness, supporting a conservative bill to address the border issue, maintaining a free and fair republic, support for unions, voting rights, protection of earned benefits, and much more all really that alienating? It sounded like actual "populism" to me. But then again, I'm out-of-touch with "real America" apparently, even though they're supposed to care about and support all of this too.

If Biden can't make a dent with a campaign like this and ends up losing, it really will be the fault of an irrational electorate, I'm sorry.