My view on why Trump did so well

[Progressive Pessimist]

There are probably a litany of reasons why some, of all different backgrounds, ended up being converted into voting for Trump, but for me the simplest answer is that Trump was given the benefit of the doubt on a lot throughout his tenure as President. This specifically applies to low information, low propensity voters who may not have ever followed Trump's presidency very closely. Regardless of their background they were probably able to examine specifically how they were affected by Trump's presidency and if unaffected by whatever negative things they are hearing about Trump, out of osmosis, could forgive all that since he is the President in a period for them when they're doing well or approving of something he did or represents. It follows the theme of Trump and the GOP in tending to have their moral compass point inward. They don't really care about how Trump has affected others or the very fabric of the country.

Whether it's Jews brushing aside Charlottesville because Trump moved the embassy to Jerusalem, a Cuban who fears the boogeyman of Socialism more than Trump's ironically Castro-like autocratic tendencies, a black voter who can forgive Trump's casual racism since he pardoned criminals and signed the First Step Act, a Kenosha senior who would otherwise be concerned about Trump's downplaying of the cornavirus but is more concerned about the racial unrest, or a voter of any background who quite simply thinks that Trump was solely responsible for the stable economy in his first three years and bears little to no responsibility for the coronavirus economic downturn. To me this explains the shy Trump effect happening again and how it's managed to unexpectedly transcend the divides that we all thought were clear distinctions of Trump voters and Trump opponents. His deflections, excuses, obfuscation, persecution complex, and water-muddying may have actually been more effective than we realize. And to be clear, I wouldn't refer to these voters as "Trump supporters" as much as Trump voters. I don't know that they necessarily buy into the ideology of Trumpism or will continue supporting Republicans in the future. These are probably the types of voters who may personally dislike Trump but approve of his job as President and vote for him in turn. They were Trump's new soft support as he lost the kind you found in the Wisconsin WOW counties, or places like it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

Bush having the higher propensity base didn't stop 2006. It will ameliorate Democratic losses, but they're still losing the House unless Biden actually gets serious about executive orders (in a way I think he never intended to even with a trifecta) and the public buys what he sells.

The only way I can see Biden and the Democrats spinning s*** into gold with the midterms is if Biden oversees the pandemic's end and a massive economic recovery and be able to boast about them to an effect that he becomes popular like Bush in 2002. It could happen, but I am not holding my breath for it, we might be too polarized still by that point.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am a 100% believer of this theory. Swings from 2016 to 2018 to 2020 sure do look like Dems have a high propensity base and the GOP has a lower propensity one.

The Democrats look to have the higher propensity base now. They didn't during Obama's presidency. Let's hope we can hold on to it.

Bush having the higher propensity base didn't stop 2006. It will ameliorate Democratic losses, but they're still losing the House unless Biden actually gets serious about executive orders (in a way I think he never intended to even with a trifecta) and the public buys what he sells.

The only way I can see Biden and the Democrats spinning s*** into gold with the midterms is if Biden oversees the pandemic's end and a massive economic recovery and be able to boast about them to an effect that he becomes popular like Bush in 2002. It could happen, but I am not holding my breath for it, we might be too polarized still by that point.

It would require threading the needle, but it's possible. As in my signature - if the Republicans keep the Senate, the optimal strategy would be to campaign against the Senate itself. Very intensely, aggressively. Turnout is how you win elections under polarization. Overwhelm the other side (see: Georgia).

I also think that perhaps Biden and Democrats can make McConnell the new Trump (though he should have already been perceived as Trump's equal, or even worse, in terms of villainy) . If there's one thing that the 2020 election proved is that Democrats unite better when they have something or someone to oppose.