2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can remember that great 2016 night like it was yesterday... where has the time gone?

MAGA 2020!

Lucky you, these past four years have felt like eight to many of us.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Election Betting Odds has it 306-232 on their betting markets. LOL!

I'm really hoping for that. The irony would be beautiful, it would mean that Georgia is a state that Democrats actually have a future in, it could be a good sign for the run-offs, and would be a big "f*** you" to the abhorrent, apocalyptic wasteland of psychotic idiots to the south-Florida pissed me off this year, as usual, but in doing so I have the right to continue disparaging the state! F*** you, Florida!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/GongwerMichigan/status/1324142278357770240

Thank goodness! SN doesn't get to gloat. Way closer than it should have been though, that's been true of almost everything this f***ing election though (possibly with the exception of Arizona, almost everything seemed to have worked out there).

The Senate is the biggest disappointment in another election year that yields only a hollow victory at best, but at least Democrats will have netted a seat now. I'm really hoping that we can have two Georgia run-offs make up for Crusty Cal and Sara Gideon's failures.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I can’t get over the fact that Cal's sexy messenges might cost us the Trifecta for Dem legislation to effectively combat climate change. Icebergs will melt because of how hot he is. Sexiest butterfly effect.

Yeah, f*** him! Thom Tillis broke the Helms hex!

 Jeff Jackson should have run instead. If he would rather run for the other seat in 2022, he is choosing wrong. Thankfully, as much as North Carolina disappointed tonight, I do think that Democrats still have a future there with some investment. Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina are probably the states we need to make up for Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've been getting donation texts from Trump telling me to fight back, lmao.

Certainly this won't open the possibility for civil unrest and terrorism, no?

At least the tide has turned. Yesterday I expected livid Democrats to descend upon the White House.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1324148708754313217

Arizona seems to be the one state where almost everything went right. It was a nice surprise amidst a lot of disappointment to see when I woke up today, after trying my damnedst to avoid the results as they were coming in last night.

[Progressive Pessimist]

In the end Biden is gonna take all of the toss ups outstanding except NC. This is starting to feel like 2018 all over again - starts out bad and ends pretty well. If we can get both GA senate seats to a run off that would be fantastic.

Even right down to Florida disappointing in another way to add to all the others! And, well, with the House in reverse.

I am holding out hope that the two run-offs can re-balance things, especially if Biden manages to win the Peach state. It'll be a satisfying enough consolation prize that greatly raises my optimism about a future that I still think will be very bleak.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Nicole Wallace said that the Biden team and Trump team are actually talking about White House transition.

It’s over, and it looks like in the end he might actually go away somewhat willingly.

Holy S***!!! Is Trump actually going to concede and do the right thing? Hell, would we actually get a stimulus package in the lame duck session?

I sure hope so. Things with this election seem to keep going from being bleak to (relatively) reassuring. It's why I am extra glad that I avoided watching the returns as they came in last night. Though I was very stressed and dispirited this morning still.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think this may be the last time that the Democratic path to victory runs through MI/WI/PA.

From 2024, I expect it to run through NV/AZ/GA/NC

I wouldn't be so sure about Michigan and Pennsylvania. They don't seem to be voting much to the right of the nation this year. At least not any more than last time.

Isn't it funny that Trump wins these three states by less than Biden (even if Biden's margins are small) and suddenly they look unwinnable for Democrats. Then a Democrat does win them (or will, in the case of Pennsylvania) and suddenly they're still unwinnable? Republicans don't subscribe to this logic.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, with Trump's gains among Latinos and Asians, along with a tiny dent among Black men...if the GOP wants to be viable going forward, they need to take a page out of the Ford Nation playbook.

I know that we were warned about it, and may have wrongly dismissed it, but I am still so baffled that this happened.

What is unknown is if they were just fans of Trump and not the GOP.

True, I do think that a more conventional Republican would go back to doing as bad as Romney did. I just can't wrap my head around how people of color can make excuses for someone so bigoted. I get it when white people do it, but maybe it's some sort of reverse-intersectionality where different minority groups like that Trump disparages certain others? Is it strictly stuff like taxes? I know that the "Socialism!" fear apparently has resonated more than usual with some.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Does no one find it funny that we may end up with Michigan-Pennsylvania-Wisconsin in terms of margin after all the "Safe Wisconsin, Tossup PA" takes? Looks like the pre-COVID conventional wisdom will end up being true and the past year has been absolutely useless in terms of election takes.

I do. I used to believe that the 289 or 290 map was the best Biden would, or any other Democrat, would be able to do; and that has in fact been the case. Though Georgia may alter that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

My working theory is that Trump brought a bunch of people out of the woodwork into his coalition. These people were historically not very political and don't vote often (if ever) and tend to be low-info but were swept up in "Trumpmania" over the last few years. I suspect these people would be 1) possibly screened out in a "likely voter" model and 2)would vote straight R up and down the ticket because TRUMP

I agree with this analysis and it also tells me that the GOP could get destroyed in 2022 when it faces an educated electorate and a lot fewer Trump fanatics.

I hope so. One of the Democrats' top priority between 2021 and 2022 is that they need to keep their coalition engaged while adding back some that have faltered.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Apologies if this was asked recently, but what are the current predictions for North Carolina? I know it's been called for Trump and Tillis, but how close - or how distant - could it end up being in the end?

Not sure about the other networks, but NYT has not called NC for either Trump or Tillis.

Tillis declared victory last night, for what its worth. lol

That'll be great if the absentee ballots that come in say otherwise lol

It would be historically sexy if that could put Cunningham over-the-top, but I'm not so hopeful. North Carolina disappoints again, but this really was a winnable race at both the Senate and presidential level. Democrats shouldn't give up on the state...unlike f***ing Florida!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ugh, please hang in there, Arizona! I was praising you so much today!

[Progressive Pessimist]

People need to chill re: AZ. Biden is going to win it by 30 or 40k. None of these vote drops indicate anything otherwise. If there was a hint in change of the trajectory, Fox and AP would retract their call.

Who cares anyway when it’s pretty clear Biden is going to take Pennsylvania and that alone would put him over the top?

I think some of us just want Biden's result to seem as impressive as possible and show that Democrats do have a future in some new states. That's been clear in Arizona down-ballot, but it would be nice to see at the presidential level as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Once Trump's out of office how often do you think he will criticize Biden and for what?

"Do Nothing Biden!" (ignoring the Republican Senate that will obstruct anything he wants to do).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Seeing Trump lose bit by bit like this is delicious.

In some way it is, but seeing him get blown out, if all the votes being counted now were to come in at once, would have been even more satisfying. It at least would be less stressful.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump needs to prove it with real evidence or he needs to shut up. He doesn't have the right to attack our democracy and to divide this country. I'll say the same thing about the far left and their behavior this summer but Trump is ripping this country apart.

Prove it or I'll probably never vote for a Trump in the future. Idiots.

Wow, a self-redeeming Trump supporter.

Maybe this country's future isn't so bleak after all...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump needs to prove it with real evidence or he needs to shut up. He doesn't have the right to attack our democracy and to divide this country. I'll say the same thing about the far left and their behavior this summer but Trump is ripping this country apart.

Prove it or I'll probably never vote for a Trump in the future. Idiots.

Wow, a self-redeeming Trump supporter.

Maybe this country's future isn't so bleak after all...

Hold them to it in 2024 when a Trump will likely be running again.

Oh, I will, don't worry about it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Establishment Republican Party will save itself here by cutting Trump loose.

I hope Trump attacks them for it.
The party split needs to happen, I am already salivating.

This is my hope too.  I hope it costs them the two GA senate seats.  We are now seeing that Dems can win Georgia.

If Biden does manage to win it I think that could be great for turnout in the run-offs. It's a big deal and will make more Georgians think that their vote matters. Pair that with some serious investment by the Democratic Party, probably getting Obama down there to campaign, and we may pull it off. There is at least hope for it, and that's enough for me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Establishment Republican Party will save itself here by cutting Trump loose.

I hope Trump attacks them for it.
The party split needs to happen, I am already salivating.

It won't happen. Republicans are atrociously dumb, they don't understand healthcare or taxes, but they aren't stupid. They aren't going to self destruct like that. Mitch will make Trump understand the best way to continue blocking common sense Democratic policies is to put forth a United front.

Machiavellan Republicans like McConnell know that, but there's no way that a narcissistic simpleton like Trump will be receptive to that. if the party no longer needs him, he will take his anger out on them, it doesn't matter how much they've done for him. All that matters is him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Burn the GOP to the ground

https://twitter.com/gopoversight/status/1324504849371877377

Democrats? You mean Republican state legislatures in some of the most important battleground states, you projecting f***ers!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/550046337547665409
There's always a tweet!

Maybe Trump can get a job as a fortune cookie writer.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I haven't posted since last night, but I have been keeping up with what's going on and am oh so enthralled to see a blue Georgia that is also growing bluer as the hours go by. Where's RFKFan? I expected him to be posting a lot about his well-earned vindication. Georgia being an oasis of blue (Atlas Talk Elections red), should it remain that way when the results are certified, kind of resembles how Minnesota was in 2016, in reverse.

Biden's expanding leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania are not really surprising though.

I still have my fingers crossed that Arizona will hold out for Biden. I want that 306-232 irony map! I mean, if Trump can't win Georgia, can he really win Arizona? I know that the demographics aren't entirely similar, but the trends kind of are.