Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Progressive Pessimist]

Most polling has suggested that it's Democrats that have seen the largest increase in approval for Trump, which means it's not too difficult to imagine that number going back down to where it has been.

That indeed seems to be the case, which is just stupid! Whoever these Democrats are just gave Trump the ability to make himself look credible at a time when he hasn't actually earned it. Even if/when they come to their senses Trump can still claim that the majority of Americans (including Democrats) approved of how he handled a crisis. Thanks for helping to water down a primary argument for getting rid of him, you dunces!

[Progressive Pessimist]

New ABC/Ipsos poll has Trump’s coronavirus approval rating at a downward trend.

That's still too high, but it's reassuring me after a pretty rough week or two when his approval was skyrocketing.

I just hope it stays this way. I will never stop worrying about Americans' limited attention spans and memories. They have the potential give Trump another undeserved bump in the future.

It really should be obvious at this point that we need better than a pilot on his first flight, navigating a passenger plane through a severe thunderstorm.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because it improved among Democrats.

"Democrats."

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because it improved among Democrats.

"Democrats."

Think the entire Trump Democrat thing might be a real thing? That because of the crisis, there's a lot more Economically Liberal, Socially Conservative types that feel at home under Trump? That's probably a bullsh**t theory, though but strange times...

I'm hoping that they are people who still won't vote for him under any circumstance but can't resist the urge to try and be "fair" to him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Monmouth, April 3-7, 857 adults including 743 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

RV:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

Still way too good for Trump, but there is a very clear downswing happening in spite of that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am impressed by Trump's ability to constantly squander any ounce of momentum he ever seems to pick up in popularity.

Idiots don’t know how to not be idiots.

Donald Trump is on par with Joe Exotic.

Hence why Joe Exotic, if he wasn't in prison, would be a front-runner for the 2024 GOP primary. Actually, he probably still could get the nomination in prison.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I am impressed by Trump's ability to constantly squander any ounce of momentum he ever seems to pick up in popularity.

Idiots don’t know how to not be idiots.

Donald Trump is on par with Joe Exotic.

Hence why Joe Exotic, if he wasn't in prison, would be a front-runner for the 2024 GOP primary. Actually, he probably still could get the nomination in prison.

Republicans would never nominate a gay. It’s a bridge too far.

I think they would now. Not because they finally accept the LGBTQ community, but because, as we've seen with Trump, they will always look the other way on something if they feel like they have something to gain. That could be the case if a hypothetical Joe Exotic candidacy, campaigning from prison, excites their deranged base.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Garin-Hart-Yang: April 6-8

National (1003 RV):

Biden 50
Trump 43

Trump approval: 46/54


Michigan (303 LV):

Biden 50
Trump 41

Trump approval: 44/56


Wisconsin (301 LV):

Biden 48
Trump 47

Trump approval: 48/52

 Wisconsin is going to fumble away the whole damn thing.

That is why Biden needs to contest Wisconsin, but also Florida and the rest of the Midwest and Sun Belt. No false choices. We need an insurance policy because it seems like the dumbbells in Wisconsin outnumber the smart people.

Wisconsin will be contested, don't you worry. Today's Supreme Court race results just cements how important it is and how winnable it still is.

[Progressive Pessimist]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

Were you politically aware for 2000? That was a hoot and a half. I was seven and remember it to an extent.

I was....what? Four years old?  So no specific memories of the 2000 election. 

But anyway, I digress -- I'm pulling this thread off the rails. 

You also succeeded at making me feel ancient.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ABC/Ipsos

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way Trump is handling the virus?"

March 11-12: 43/54 (-11)
March 18-19: 55/43 (+12)
April 1-2: 47/52 (-5)
April 8-9: 44/55 (-11)
April 15-16: 44/54 (-10)

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/country-grows-pessimistic-return-normalcy-post-coronavirus-poll/story?id=70194349&cid=social_twitter_abcn

That's what I like to see! Ideally his approval would be at zero though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida: St. Pete Polls, April 16-17, 5659 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 48

On coronavirus handling: 48/48

Biden 48.3, Trump 47.5

He's losing to Biden while having a net positive approval rating? I don't know if I buy that. It sounds like more Florida shenanigans.

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point the President's bungled handling of COVID-19 seems like the most likely focus of the 2020 election. The President cannot run from his record. As the death tolls mount, he will find himself losing one state after another. He will probably get culpability for failing to have an economic plan in place.

Open America to the ravages of the virus? Mass death could cause people to find lower rents and less competition for work. 

It is a massive opening for Democrats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Florida: Quinnipiac, April 16-20, 1385 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

COVID-19 handling: Approve 46, Disapprove 51

Biden 46, Trump 42

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253029764060852224

That map (with NE-02 for Biden and ME-02 for Trump) is exactly the prediction I entered yesterday.

Remove North Carolina and I think that's a pretty likely Biden victory map.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval is back down to basically where it was at on Election Day 2018: -10

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1255281731722268672

The flavor of Fruit Stripe gum lasts longer than Trump's approval bumps. I was stupid for fretting so much about it then. I do still fear that he could get another one though, and at a worse time (like October), as undeserving as he is of them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval rating is surging, according to the latest Gallup poll. He's now at his highest point ever.

Seriously? Based on one poll?

He is up 3 points in the latest WaPo poll. Despite claims his bounce faded, it really hasn't entirely. He is consistently trending up in a long term perspective.

No.  You're just wrong.  Go look at this chart: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

That shows him at -9.5, whereas just before his bounce he was at -10.9. Yes it goes up and down, but his peaks keep getting higher and his valleys not as low.

The award for spinning bad news goes to...!

I wouldn't even do that. The anxieties that are currently plaguing me do not include Trump's poll numbers for now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's approval and opinion to his COVID-19 response are starting to converge:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1257717833460523010?s=20

Those still seem pretty high to me, but Monmouth does always tend to be one of Trump's better pollsters. So by that standard, this is pretty terrible for him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Even as a serial panicker, this does look like noise to me. Let's see how it changes if the Reade story loses its presence again amidst Trump continually, ubiquitously bungling his response to the pandemic. He just can't stop.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Dems just lost CA 25 a Dem district, a 400 EC landslide is not happening

It was never happening, regardless of a low interest special election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Call me crazy, but I fully expect further erosion in Trump's poll numbers because of his Obamagate push. Its just in incredibly poor taste to throw that out there in the midst of the pandemic. I don't see how hyping up Obamagate as the death toll start starts pushing 100,000 is going to help Trump with the seniors he'll need to win in less than 6 months.

We'll see. Somehow it is the dumbest fabricated conspiracy he's attempted to will into existence yet as a way of denigrating his opponents. At least going after Hunter Biden and the Tara Reade allegation had some basis in reality. "Obamagate" is simply as idiotic as it is incomprehensible and vague.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The RCP average for Trump's approval rating on his handling of COVID-19 has his net approval declining at a pretty rapid pace.

It now stands at -10.9, compared to -3 last month. The latest ABC poll hasn't been entered yet.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_president_trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

My approval of this entire hysteria has gone down as well, to be fair.

"Hysteria?" I dare you to tell anyone who lost a loved one to this virus that they are being "hysterical."

[Progressive Pessimist]

The RCP average for Trump's approval rating on his handling of COVID-19 has his net approval declining at a pretty rapid pace.

It now stands at -10.9, compared to -3 last month. The latest ABC poll hasn't been entered yet.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/public_approval_of_president_trumps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

My approval of this entire hysteria has gone down as well, to be fair.

"Hysteria?" I dare you to tell anyone who lost a loved one to this virus that they are being "hysterical."

People die every day....sad and tragic part of life but such as it is 40 million have lost their jobs, which impacts millions more by extension (families, children...), and another generation in succession lost due to stupid economic polices. So how about you go and tell them, and while you’re at it, go tell the half billion who will be plunged into poverty and starvation worldwide because of the shutdowns.1

In fact, science is now showing the shutdowns to be really harmful. Suicide and drug overdoses within the deaths from despair. So go and tell those victims of the Hysteria as well. Isolate the vulnerable and stop being clowns.

1 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52211206

When, if ever, is it going to get through to you that people can't work if they are sick, dead, or dying? This is about more than peoples' jobs and economics. If economies reopen too prematurely it will cause even worse and more counterproductive impact on the economy than if people make a small sacrifice in the short-term and allow their states' economies to more cautiously reopen. Most people seem to get that. It sucks that they have to suffer at all through it, but if the US had better infrastructure for its safety netat both the state and federal levels, perhaps it wouldn't be so difficult.

And stop dismissing the unprecedented nature if this virus. This is not something the medical community, around the world, has experienced before. For their sake at least to help us find treatment or a vaccine, stop spreading disinformation and just take the precautions they advise.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Because COVID-19 is the big news story and influences almost everything, and because it so intertwines with political and economic life, the President's approval on it alone is a valid proxy for overall approval and disapproval.

I can see that, though there continue to be a percentage of people who approve of him yet disapprove of his handling of the virus...which is just horrifically baffling!

Why is it baffling that people base their assessments on more than one issue, even if it is the single largest issue at the present?

I personally think Trump has done a horrible job on virtually very aspect of his job. 

But in 1968, I can imagine a lot of liberals saying they disapproved of LBJ’s handling of the Vietnam War but approved of his presidency overall.

But with Trump his cult of personality, partisanship, and tribalism overcome so much logic and reason among his base that I didn't expect them to ever even admit to disapproving of one of one his actions. It's a lot different than with any other President and the missteps they may have made.

[Progressive Pessimist]

ABC News/Washington Post-

Approve: 45% (-3)
Disapprove: 53% (+7)

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/abc-news-coronavirus-poll

It's interesting - ABC/Wapo used to lean on the "worse for Trump" side but lately they've been rosier for him than others.

And yet he is still down by 10 in their horse-race part of the poll.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Fox News state polls, May 30-June 2.

Arizona (1002 RV):

Approve 46 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 52 (strongly 41)

Biden 46, Trump 42


Ohio (803 RV):

Approve 50 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

Biden 45, Trump 43


Wisconsin (801 RV):

Approve 45 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 45)

Biden 49, Trump 40

Trump pumping some strong swing states numbers. That’s all that matters!

So much for that...