Given Biden's rise in South Carolina and Sanders's across the board fall, I decided to make an update of the map by state. Shown are the odds of the current leading candidate winning, not their share of the vote. Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada are shown as the odds when the model was frozen before results started coming in.
Map as of Thursday, February 27th at 1:33 PM.
I agree with this, for the most part. With some certainty though I would actually give Sanders North Carolina also. As I see it, if he is winning Virginia he wins The Tarheel State too. It was one of his better Southern states in 2016.
I am the least confident about how Kentucky, Minnesota, and West Virginia will vote though. I could see them also going for Biden, Sanders, and Biden respectively.
EDIT: I am retracting my belief that North Carolina will vote for Sanders along with North Carolina. The recent poll of the Tarheel State suggests that maybe it isn't that simple, and that Biden might win it after all. I stand by the rest of what I said.
