The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Greene/Gaetz (or vice-versa) 2020?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Scott, if there is even a primary field, will be the obligatory "black friend" that always shows up in GOP primaries and never manages to crack even 1% in Iowa.

[Progressive Pessimist]

^Even with all that in mind, I still don't think Scott would have much of an impact in a GOP primary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump on 2024:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/569181-trump-teases-potential-2024-bid-amid-afghanistan-crisis?rl=1

“We won it twice. I've won it twice and now I have to win it again. I guess if we're going to save the country, look ... I'll make a decision,” Trump told conservative talk show host Lisa Boothe on her podcast “The Truth with Lisa Booth.”

“It won't be maybe for a little while. You know, a lot of people would like to see a decision immediately, but perhaps there's also a big group, including maybe myself, that would like to see it after the midterms,” he continued.

He is totally going to take credit for the GOP taking back the House, isn't he? He might as well literally push McCarthy out of the way of his podium when the networks call it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

Staying would have meant an end to the relative stability of the last several months and a return to the ferocious fighting of before.  Biden would have had to oversee a massive troop build-up in Afghanistan just to hold what we had, let alone turn the tide (don't forget that the Taliban had been gaining territory all through Trump's administration).  Do you really think that would have been the better position?

Not practically, but politically. Americans haven't cared about the war in Afghanistan probably since Bin Laden was killed. So it really would have done little harm to not rock the boat on the situation, even if it was still an absolute waste.

We, as a nation, are in such a dire moment in our history where every political decision that attracts the attention of the media cycle can be consequential to our future being anywhere close to sustainable as a republic. And today's terrorist attack, on top of an already messy situation, just becomes another threat that the increasingly autocratic Republican Party can utilize for their nefarious ends of gaining and maintaining power at all costs.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If I'm Trump, I announce tomorrow morning.

Kabul will go down as a 2nd Benghazi, politically-speaking. Difference is, Trump wasn't running against Hillary or Obama, and that does NOT help Biden.

I think people overestimate the impact of Afghanistan. It won't be much an issue in a couple of weeks, let alone in November 2024.

I thought his way too for awhile, but a terrorist attack that claimed the lives of some Americans now makes it a true stain on his administration. Republicans now have a real cudgel to use against him and it now looks like staying in Afghanistan would have been the better decision. I know that the reality of the withdrawal is more complicated than that, but Americans don't care. The GOP is going to return to their neocon ways and re-prioritizing Islamist terrorism as part of their repertoire, and Americans will probably reciprocate more on that now the Kabul airport chaos directly affected Americans now, and as "scary brown people" are going to arrive in our country as refugees. The situation is even worse now and the risks associated with the withdrawal, as practical as they will still be for American interests in the long-term, are a real political liability in the short-term.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not writing the obituary for a second Biden term. Obama survived Benghazi after all, and it wasn't what sunk Clinton-and the GOP really sunk their teeth into that. But I think this is less likely to be forgotten about than the situation appeared to be a week since the Taliban took Kabul, when things finally looked like they were improving a bit.

In every Trump speech/statement so far, he's explicitly said that he supports withdrawal, but thinks Biden handled it poorly.
Regular GOP politicians are a different story, but Trump isn't going pro-war.

If you expect consistency out of Trump, then I've got some Ivermectin to sell you.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1433608805397504004

"Any day now" is a vague enough statement to make this not very newsworthy.

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeSantis called speculation about him running for president “nonsense” without explicitly denying that he’s thinking of running for president:

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2021/09/07/desantis-calls-talk-of-a-2024-presidential-bid-nonsense-1390768

“All the speculation about me is purely manufactured,” said DeSantis during a press conference he held to tout a Covid-19 treatment unit in St. Cloud, Fla. “I just do my job and we work hard… I hear all this stuff and honestly it’s nonsense.”
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In the last few months DeSantis has traveled to California, Utah, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Texas. Most of those trips have been confined to fundraising for his political committee, but he has appeared at events designed to raise his profile, including a national police convention, a national legislative conference and headlined a Pittsburgh GOP fundraising dinner.

He’s avoided stepping foot in early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire and scrapped a scheduled trip to Nevada last month due to a tropical storm that was threatening the state.

DeSantis' blatant courting of the most zealous of the right wing is all the evidence we need that he is considering running for President. The only thing in his way is if Trump decides to run after all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump once again says that his decision on whether to run for prez again in 2024 will make people “very happy”, while also now saying “I’ll make a decision in the not-so-distant future.”:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-gutfeld-2024-plans

"I love our country," he said. "I think you’ll be very happy. I would say two, three years ago you might not have been that happy but now I think you’d be happy… I’ll make a decision in the not-so-distant future."

He's right. I wasn't very happy two or three years ago. Not that I'm much happier now, but him saying anything makes me less happy still.

[Progressive Pessimist]

To me, it seems like Elder’s tweet (and the article) are hinting at a possible run for President? Or perhaps a run for a different federal office (Senate)?

https://twitter.com/larryelder/status/1438301221127868418?s=21

He'll probably run again in 2022 against Newsom and then from there might consider a presidential run if Trump doesn't. Sorry Tim Scott, there's a new prolific black friend for the GOP now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

DeSantis goes on Hannity, says he's too busy to be focusing on a Presidential run right now.

“I notice the media, no matter how many times you’ve answered the question about are you considering the run for the presidency in 2024 and you give the same answer, that they still keep asking you,” Hannity said before asking that very same question: “What’s your answer to those people that ask again and again?”

“Yeah, I’m not considering anything beyond doing my job, we got a lot of stuff going on in Florida,” DeSantis asserted, adding that he will be running for re-election as governor next year.

As for what he feels needs his attention in Florida, DeSantis immediately leaned into the culture war issues that have energized conservatives over the past year.

“We are also working on a lot of things in the state beyond the governor’s race, we got school board races,” he declared. “I want to make sure people are not supporting critical race theory!”



After saying he wants to make sure “parents have the ability to send their kids to school the way they want to,” seemingly referencing his court fights over local school mask mandates, DeSantis reiterated that he isn’t focusing his attention on 2024.

“There’s a lot of huge issues, that is way down the road, it’s not anything that I’m planning for,” he concluded.

Too busy neglecting his state's health and public safety.

[Progressive Pessimist]

is Afghanistan really a big deal? seems like very few people actually care about this

It was only a big deal when people were watching in horror as the withdrawal happened (even as the majority of Americans approved of the withdrawal. I guess they just didn't like seeing it?) but it's just about all that the GOP can use against him unless they succeed with their debt ceiling hostage situation gambit.

Anyway, it definitely seems like Trump running is as inevitable as it always seemed. He doesn't seem very intimidated by all the mounting legal troubles he is in. And I can't blame him for that. He always weasels his way out of consequences, and is justifiably confident that he can do so again enough to run another campaign in three years.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

Trump is not going to like that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Punchbowl News' poll of senior Capitol Hill aides from both parties

Democratic staffers' most likely 2024 nominee if Biden does not run for reelection:

Kamala Harris 58% (down 22% from last survey)
Pete Buttigieg 14%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Other 17%

Republican staffers on their most likely 2024 nominee:

Ron DeSantis 45% (down 17% from last survey)
Donald Trump 33%
Nikki Haley 3%
Tom Cotton 2%
Ted Cruz 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Mike Pompeo 2%

Trump is not going to like that.

I think it's more a "will he run or will he not run" instead of a "DeSantis beats Trump in a primary" scenario.

Yeah, I know. I can dream though because that scenario would be brilliant and might even involve a pissed off Trump launching a third party.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Haha! Hirsh Singh running is hilarious, but does at least make this the most diverse GOP primary ever: three black candidates, three South Asian candidates, and a Latino. Still only one woman though.