CO-SEN (YouGov/University of Colorado): Bennet +14 (user search)
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June 08, 2024, 03:04:59 AM
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  CO-SEN (YouGov/University of Colorado): Bennet +14 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CO-SEN (YouGov/University of Colorado): Bennet +14  (Read 1538 times)
jamestroll
jamespol
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Posts: 10,550


« on: November 03, 2022, 07:25:12 PM »

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

The one thing that gives me pause about this poll is that the early voting numbers in Colorado don't look as good for Democrats as those of 2018 and 2020. And the electorate this year appears to be skewing older and whiter than in those years. But at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if all the statewide Democrats won by double digits with the rate things are going in Colorado.

If the electorate is a lot older than in 2020, that would  be a roadblock for Bennett winning by 10 points or more. Colorado’s inward migration is overwhelmingly due to young college educated liberals who are coming from other states like California and New York. That’s why Colorado in 2020 was to the left of where it was in 2018: turnout was higher and therefore younger people voted at a higher rate proportionately. Additionally, Colorado’s inward migration has actually slowed since the start of the pandemic. 

On the other side of the argument, we’re talking about college educated voters, who theoretically, regardless of age, should have turnout on par with the elderly. Turnout is also anticipated to be higher than it was in 2018, probably rendering the age turnout advantage smaller than in past midterms.

Of course, we’ll find out all of this on Election Day. But if there’s any state to bet on democrats outperforming  expectations, it’s Colorado.

I am in a Colorado transplant group..

They are quite different from me.

I wish fewer of them were white. Colorado would be much better with more blacks, asians, and latinos
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