CO-SEN (YouGov/University of Colorado): Bennet +14

[wbrocks67]

Bennet (D) 56%
O'Dea (R) 42%

https://www.colorado.edu/lab/aprl/sites/default/files/attached-files/2022_cpc_topline.pdf

[Dani Rose]

Nice to see the good pollsters emerging from their cave! This looks perfectly reasonable, honestly, given Trump is actively trying to sabotage O'Dea's campaign. I feel a bit bad for him, honestly.

[Calthrina950]

Nice to see the good pollsters emerging from their cave! This looks perfectly reasonable, honestly, given Trump is actively trying to sabotage O'Dea's campaign. I feel a bit bad for him, honestly.

What makes YouGov necessarily better than Emerson and the other "R-leaning" pollsters?

[Dani Rose]

Nice to see the good pollsters emerging from their cave! This looks perfectly reasonable, honestly, given Trump is actively trying to sabotage O'Dea's campaign. I feel a bit bad for him, honestly.

What makes YouGov necessarily better than Emerson and the other "R-leaning" pollsters?

I counted Emerson as one of the higher-quality pollsters, actually. They have a bias, but they do actual polls with actual methodology. Stuff like InsiderAdvantage, Center Street Pac, and those honestly hilarious Patriot Polls the other day absolutely don't help us, and Trafalgar is right on the borderline at times as well.

[President Johnson]

Safe Democratic.

[scutosaurus]

bennet stans stay winning

[Matty]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

[soundchaser]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

Colorado is ZOOMING left, and it doesn't show signs of slowing down. The margin may not be quite this high, but it probably won't be far off.

[Dani Rose]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

Trump is actively trying to kill O'Dea's campaign for his disloyalty.

[Matty]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

Except for that pesky fact that Colorado Republicans hate Trump
Trump is actively trying to kill O'Dea's campaign for his disloyalty.

[Calthrina950]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

The one thing that gives me pause about this poll is that the early voting numbers in Colorado don't look as good for Democrats as those of 2018 and 2020. And the electorate this year appears to be skewing older and whiter than in those years. But at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if all the statewide Democrats won by double digits with the rate things are going in Colorado.

[Alben Barkley]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

Except for that pesky fact that Colorado Republicans hate Trump
Trump is actively trying to kill O'Dea's campaign for his disloyalty.

Colorado Republicans, as in the people who elected Lauren Boebert? LOL, they don't hate Trump. There's just fewer of them than Colorado Democrats these days.

[wbrocks67]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

The one thing that gives me pause about this poll is that the early voting numbers in Colorado don't look as good for Democrats as those of 2018 and 2020. And the electorate this year appears to be skewing older and whiter than in those years. But at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if all the statewide Democrats won by double digits with the rate things are going in Colorado.

Wasn't the early vote in 2018 at this point tied between Ds and Rs? it's D+3 right now, by reg.

[AnOdyssey]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

No doubt that Bennett is going to win, but I think O'dea is more formidable than people give him credit for, I think we may be in for a surprise from Colorado come the 8th.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bennett will win by 4/5 pts if it's close he won't lose

[Ferguson97]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

I’ll take that bet. O’Dea does worse than Trump.

[DaleCooper]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

Trump is actively trying to kill O'Dea's campaign for his disloyalty.

Sure, but has anyone even heard about this?

I haven't heard Trump's voice in close to two years now, and I pay way too much attention to politics.

[Suburban Republican]

Some of you guys are giving O’Dea too much credit. I say that as someone who voted for him. Safe D.

[Suburban Republican]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

The one thing that gives me pause about this poll is that the early voting numbers in Colorado don't look as good for Democrats as those of 2018 and 2020. And the electorate this year appears to be skewing older and whiter than in those years. But at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if all the statewide Democrats won by double digits with the rate things are going in Colorado.

If the electorate is a lot older than in 2020, that would  be a roadblock for Bennett winning by 10 points or more. Colorado’s inward migration is overwhelmingly due to young college educated liberals who are coming from other states like California and New York. That’s why Colorado in 2020 was to the left of where it was in 2018: turnout was higher and therefore younger people voted at a higher rate proportionately. Additionally, Colorado’s inward migration has actually slowed since the start of the pandemic. 

On the other side of the argument, we’re talking about college educated voters, who theoretically, regardless of age, should have turnout on par with the elderly. Turnout is also anticipated to be higher than it was in 2018, probably rendering the age turnout advantage smaller than in past midterms.

Of course, we’ll find out all of this on Election Day. But if there’s any state to bet on democrats outperforming  expectations, it’s Colorado.

[Senator Incitatus]

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

This is a contradiction in terms.

[jamestroll]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

The one thing that gives me pause about this poll is that the early voting numbers in Colorado don't look as good for Democrats as those of 2018 and 2020. And the electorate this year appears to be skewing older and whiter than in those years. But at this point, I wouldn't be shocked if all the statewide Democrats won by double digits with the rate things are going in Colorado.

If the electorate is a lot older than in 2020, that would  be a roadblock for Bennett winning by 10 points or more. Colorado’s inward migration is overwhelmingly due to young college educated liberals who are coming from other states like California and New York. That’s why Colorado in 2020 was to the left of where it was in 2018: turnout was higher and therefore younger people voted at a higher rate proportionately. Additionally, Colorado’s inward migration has actually slowed since the start of the pandemic. 

On the other side of the argument, we’re talking about college educated voters, who theoretically, regardless of age, should have turnout on par with the elderly. Turnout is also anticipated to be higher than it was in 2018, probably rendering the age turnout advantage smaller than in past midterms.

Of course, we’ll find out all of this on Election Day. But if there’s any state to bet on democrats outperforming  expectations, it’s Colorado.

I am in a Colorado transplant group..

They are quite different from me.

I wish fewer of them were white. Colorado would be much better with more blacks, asians, and latinos

[Suburban Republican]

This poll was spot on. Props to yougov.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

Yes.

[oldtimer]

I’m sorry but this is hard to believe

John O dea is a superb gop candidate. Pro choice, anti trump, etc

You want me to believe he is going to underperform Trump in a more pro gop year than 2020?

That’s absolutely absurd

O'Dea did as bad as Trump in Denver, but lost an extra 5 points from Trump's vote share outside of it.

Colorado was probably the only state where the GOP did worse with Hispanics than 2020.

My explanation is that Trump voters did not like O'Dea and didn't vote, while Biden voters still voted straight Democrat.

O'Deas reverse coattails almost cost the GOP CO-3.

[wbrocks67]

Nice to see the good pollsters emerging from their cave! This looks perfectly reasonable, honestly, given Trump is actively trying to sabotage O'Dea's campaign. I feel a bit bad for him, honestly.

What makes YouGov necessarily better than Emerson and the other "R-leaning" pollsters?

I just...