CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.
I agree with this.
Also IN -01 and depending how it is ultimately drawn, MO-05. In fact, I'd argue the present MO-05 would be a barn burner right now with a competent Republican candidate in 2022 but not 2024.
