What is a house race not enough people are discussing?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Which house race has gotten little-to-no attention from Atlas, but has a really interesting primary or may be a closer race in the general than many think?

[Pericles]

I think IN-01 could be a sleeper race, based on the trends in that district.

[MT Treasurer]

CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.

[NewYorkExpress]

NY-04

Republicans have a deep bench in the area, and if they get lucky in recruiting a strong candidate (Kate Murray, Bruce Blakeman, Ed Ra, Don Clavin), they could easily beat Kathleen Rice.

[beesley]

I agree with IN-01 being a sleeper, but in answer to the original question, I think because of those trends it is being talked about - unlike races like CT-05. My answer is actually Underwood's district - if people are talking about it, do correct me. For all the 'important bellwether suburbanite even PVI' status I haven't seen much talk of CO-08 either.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.

Huh.  Jahana Hayes has a relatively uncommon degree: an Ed.S. (education specialist) -- it's post-master's, but not a doctorate. 

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Republicans can break through the Democratic hold on New England once more.  I know about ME-02, but are there other New England seats they could flip?

[lfromnj]

CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.

Huh.  Jahana Hayes has a relatively uncommon degree: an Ed.S. (education specialist) -- it's post-master's, but not a doctorate.  

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Republicans can break through the Democratic hold on New England once more.  I know about ME-02, but are there other New England seats they could flip?

NH01 if the legislative gerrymander passes will probably be a likelier flip than ME01.

The RI GOP seems to be getting some decent buzz for the 2nd RI seat which is Biden +13 but rumors are that Democrats may split Providence further to even out the state.

[Mr.Phips]

CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.

Huh.  Jahana Hayes has a relatively uncommon degree: an Ed.S. (education specialist) -- it's post-master's, but not a doctorate.  

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Republicans can break through the Democratic hold on New England once more.  I know about ME-02, but are there other New England seats they could flip?

NH01 if the legislative gerrymander passes will probably be a likelier flip than ME01.

The RI GOP seems to be getting some decent buzz for the 2nd RI seat which is Biden +13 but rumors are that Democrats may split Providence further to even out the state.

Yes now that RI-02 is open they would be smart to “undo” what they did in 2011 to help Cicilline.

[Utah Neolib]

CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.

Huh.  Jahana Hayes has a relatively uncommon degree: an Ed.S. (education specialist) -- it's post-master's, but not a doctorate. 

Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Republicans can break through the Democratic hold on New England once more.  I know about ME-02, but are there other New England seats they could flip?

Hayes was actually the American teacher of the year in 2016 I believe.

[jamestroll]

CT-05. Not that hard to see Hayes losing in a Republican wave, especially since the new district isn’t too different from the current one in terms of partisanship (this is one of the few blue states where there hasn’t been much additional gerrymandering). I also expect particularly pronounced swings to the GOP (relative to the nation as a whole) in much of rural/small-town New England in 2022.

I agree with this.

Also IN -01 and depending how it is ultimately drawn, MO-05. In fact, I'd argue the present MO-05 would be a barn burner right now with a competent Republican candidate in 2022 but not 2024.

[ElectionsGuy]

OR-05. Schrader won by 7 points in a district that was 1 point more D than his new district. Yet people are acting like it's not competitive. Sabato has it at "Likely D". Really?