We've had two statewide elections over the past 18 months where Democrats got 46-47% of the vote with turnout at 75% of 2016 levels, so this is more possible than some might think.
This is my guessimate for the southern states in November. Florida is the one I am least confident and the hardest for me to ready.
Virignia 56% Biden 43% Trump
North Carolina 50% Biden 49% Trump
South Carolina: 54% Trump 45% Biden
Georgia: 50% Biden 49% Trump
Florida 50% Trump 48% Biden
Texas 52% Trump 47% Biden
Louisiana 57% Trump 42% Biden
Arkansas 61% Trump 38% Biden
Tennessee 61% Trump 38% Biden
Mississippi 53% Trump 46% Biden
Alabama: 60% Trump 39% Biden
