MS-Chism Strategies: Trump +9

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/JonEasley/status/1272934626990882816

Still working on finding the actual release.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

[Bidenworth2020]

Unrelated, but I want to send thanks to Limo for finding all of these polls .

[Holmes]

I mean, if the nation as a whole is 8-10 points more D than 2016, then sure. But I think Trump breaks double digits here.

[OneJ]

I want to believe...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That is a narrow margin for a state that generally doesn't swing very much.

[MT Treasurer]

Seems like an ironclad +8/+9 GOP margin is about what we can expect in this state going forward given how many MS polls and elections we’ve had with the same/very close to the same result.

[YE]

Undecides probably break for Trump here but given MS SEN 2018, this is not too surprising.

[DrScholl]

It probably ends up being a 54-46 result.

[wbrocks67]

Kinda surprised at how well Civiqs is lining up with a lot of these new polls.

Trump approval in MS is currently +8 in the Civiqs tracker (53/45)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Last Chism poll from April had Trump +11 (49-38).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It probably ends up being a 54-46 result.

Which is still pretty astounding in today's America. 

[Orwell]

It probably ends up being a 54-46 result.

Which is still pretty astounding in today's America. 

Like Mississippi being 54/46 isn't super difficult as a lot of people know the Dem floor in Mississippi is pretty concrete at around 40%, but the ceiling is pretty low as well. If Dems can continue to make inroads in places like DeSoto county while keeping the Delta solidly Democratic, I think Mississippi can become a swing state.

[The Mikado]

Just for perspective:

2016:

Trump 58
Clinton 40
Other 2

Trump + 18

2012:

Obama 44
Romney 55
Other 1

Romney + 11

2008:

Obama 43
McCain 56
Other 1

McCain +13

2004:

Kerry 40
Bush 59
Other 1

Bush +19



A 2012-ish result is definitely possible. Something like Trump 54, Biden 44.

[OneJ]

Link to actual poll: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200616_MS.pdf

50 Trump, 41 Biden

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

June 2-4, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

[GlobeSoc]

the tweet/poll would seem to indicate that low turnout dems are tuning in and college whites in ms are starting to nationalize

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Mississippi President by Millsaps College/ Chism Strategies on 2020-06-04

Summary: D: 41%, R: 50%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Hope For A New Era]

It probably ends up being a 54-46 result.

Which is still pretty astounding in today's America. 

Like Mississippi being 54/46 isn't super difficult as a lot of people know the Dem floor in Mississippi is pretty concrete at around 40%, but the ceiling is pretty low as well. If Dems can continue to make inroads in places like DeSoto county while keeping the Delta solidly Democratic, I think Mississippi can become a swing state.

As someone who has previously lived in DeSoto County...sorry to disappoint, but those inroads are over the border in Germantown and Collierville.

[Adam Griffin]

We've had two statewide elections over the past 18 months where Democrats got 46-47% of the vote with turnout at 75% of 2016 levels, so this is more possible than some might think.

[jamestroll]

We've had two statewide elections over the past 18 months where Democrats got 46-47% of the vote with turnout at 75% of 2016 levels, so this is more possible than some might think.

This is my guessimate for the southern states in November. Florida is the one I am least confident and the hardest for me to ready.

Virignia 56% Biden 43% Trump

North Carolina 50% Biden 49% Trump

South Carolina: 54% Trump 45% Biden

Georgia: 50% Biden 49% Trump

Florida 50% Trump 48% Biden

Texas 52% Trump 47% Biden

Louisiana 57% Trump 42% Biden

Arkansas 61% Trump 38% Biden

Tennessee 61% Trump 38% Biden

Mississippi 53% Trump 46% Biden

Alabama: 60% Trump 39% Biden

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Seems like an ironclad +8/+9 GOP margin is about what we can expect in this state going forward given how many MS polls and elections we’ve had with the same/very close to the same result.

Its also the logical evolution from Obama's margin. People need to remember that MS turnout for Clinton was horrendous. Trump actually lost votes compared to Romney (mainly because of attrition in the highest and most Republican age grouping), but Clinton lost like 80,000 votes compared to Obama, mostly in depressed turnout.

If that vote is energized and it turns out, then that 17% margin evaporates very quickly to the single digits.

[SingingAnalyst]

We've had two statewide elections over the past 18 months where Democrats got 46-47% of the vote with turnout at 75% of 2016 levels, so this is more possible than some might think.

This is my guessimate for the southern states in November. Florida is the one I am least confident and the hardest for me to ready.

Virignia 56% Biden 43% Trump

North Carolina 50% Biden 49% Trump

South Carolina: 54% Trump 45% Biden

Georgia: 50% Biden 49% Trump

Florida 50% Trump 48% Biden

Texas 52% Trump 47% Biden

Louisiana 57% Trump 42% Biden

Arkansas 61% Trump 38% Biden

Tennessee 61% Trump 38% Biden

Mississippi 53% Trump 46% Biden

Alabama: 60% Trump 39% Biden

Excellent summary. I would give Biden a slight edge in FL. I hope you're otherwise right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna win FL, there is no Senate race and last 2 polls had Trump ahead in NC

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

MS goes from titanium R to tungsten R