Biden has various national leads between 4 and 10. It is not unreasonable to believe that 1) Biden is leading by a small margin in Wisconsin and 2) that Wisconsin will be to the right of the nation.
Polling is not perfect now but it does seem to have improved since the 2016 cycle when we had many voters on the verge of switching sides. Now people often do forget that national polls were not that off in 2016 cycle at the end but state polls were often wildly off.
But now that people are more sorted and comfortable with their side I do buy that Biden has a small lead in Wisconsin.
