COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[jamestroll]

I just want to check.

I think we should be locked down till early or mid June. Others say the end of this month and we even have some saying no lock down at all.

No one here is seriously wanting us all locked down and trapped in our houses and large amounts of people on unemployment until every last person in the world has been vaccinated right?

[jamestroll]

We will not be able to keep the economy shut down and everyone unemployed and locked in their homes until every human being on this planet is vaccinated. That is not realistic and it actually causes the cure to be worse than the disease.

[jamestroll]

I'd love nothing more than for the lockdown to end, but I don't want a situation where we open society back up, infections/deaths start soaring again, and we end up having to close it down again anyway. That would be even more damaging to the economy and people's trust in how the crisis is being managed down to the local level.

You also have to consider that for the service sector of the economy, just because you officially "open" society doesn't mean people will start shopping / eating out again... This is doubly true if people resume getting sick at an exponential rate. Everyone will just continue staying away from non-essential places, and the economy will still be seriously damaged.

I would guess June 30th would be a good target to open up the economy.

That is two and a half months from now and at that point any outbreak would be very localized and we could contain it locally. It is still one month because the enhanced unemployment ends and by mid to late June the economic argument will be able to outweigh the risks from the coronavirus.

I would hate for us to open up on May 1st and we suddenly have large spikes in outbreaks again.

[jamestroll]

So are we really still planning to keep everyone locked in their houses and keep mass unemployment until every living  human being is vaccinated and completely disregarding the consequences of indefinite lockdowns and unemployment?

We can do this until June but after that.... no

[jamestroll]

I am not an expert here obviously but people on this board have opinions all the time on issues they are not experts on.

I say mid to late June for the below reasons:

1) Keeping up isolated and social distanced for two more months should really hinder the virus from spreading and the curve would be essentially flat.

2) It gives business more time to create procedures for operating during this pandemic. It could be as simple as airlines taking temperatures prior to board and not using middle seats except for families.

3) The unemployment stimulus boosts go until July 31st. Ending the lock downs sometime in June gives a 4 to 6 week adjustment period.

4) If we are really locked up and unemployed well into the fall and next year we will end up with mass foreclosures, evictions, people living on 300 a week from unemployment, depression, suicides, obesity, and various other medical calamities that will be far worse than the virus itself.

5) And let's be honest the coronavirus will be around for a while. Some spread of it will create more immunity and we will have to get used to wearing masks and gloves in public.

The needs of many override the needs of a few. Right now the economic cost is absolutely worth it but that opinion has a shelf life of only two more months.

Ending lockdowns on May 1st would be a horrible idea and it would absolutely lead to a massive depression. We just need more time.

[jamestroll]

I am not an expert here obviously but people on this board have opinions all the time on issues they are not experts on.

I say mid to late June for the below reasons:

1) Keeping up isolated and social distanced for two more months should really hinder the virus from spreading and the curve would be essentially flat.

2) It gives business more time to create procedures for operating during this pandemic. It could be as simple as airlines taking temperatures prior to board and not using middle seats except for families.

3) The unemployment stimulus boosts go until July 31st. Ending the lock downs sometime in June gives a 4 to 6 week adjustment period.

4) If we are really locked up and unemployed well into the fall and next year we will end up with mass foreclosures, evictions, people living on 300 a week from unemployment, depression, suicides, obesity, and various other medical calamities that will be far worse than the virus itself.

5) And let's be honest the coronavirus will be around for a while. Some spread of it will create more immunity and we will have to get used to wearing masks and gloves in public.

The needs of many override the needs of a few. Right now the economic cost is absolutely worth it but that opinion has a shelf life of only two more months.

Ending lockdowns on May 1st would be a horrible idea and it would absolutely lead to a massive depression. We just need more time.

Opening up the economy with restrictions can happen sooner than June. Mid-late May would be safest but parts of the country could open up earlier provided there is enough testing to catch outbreaks, and enough PPE for the additional employees that would be exposed to the virus. That is the biggest roadblock right now.

One other factor is that even though I do not believe coronavirus is seasonal it is possible humid hot weather could help slow down spread. That is another reason I prefer June.