Most realistic seat for Democrats to win back: ND, IN, or MO

[jamestroll]

Last year four incumbent Democrats were defeated in a wave favorable to their party. Obviously the wave was not evenly felt and political "rules" have greatly changed.

Indiana: Donnelly did not really have a path to defeat Braun in hindsight and the demographics of the state plus his relatively anonymous standing did him in.

North Dakota: Heitkamp was the one that was most impacted by the Kavanaugh saga. McCaskill and Donnelly were as well but Heitkamp harmed her own campaign with blunders, had to deal with the Kavanaugh impact, and ran in the most rural state. She actually did not end up doing that badly. I also feel like she started off in a better position compared to McCaskill. Though by the end of 2017/beginning of 2018 McCaskill was in a better position than her.

Missouri: McCaskill started off and ended up with poor approval ratings in a state that is demographically horrid for Democrats and has suburbs that are quite resistant to a suburban trend towards Democrats.

All three ended up with the mid-40s of the vote. Of the three I would think Missouri narrowly edges out Indiana in chances of a Democrat retaking a Senate seat.

1) Geography hurts Democrats in Missouri but it may also help. It is very possible to run a metropolitan based campaign and address KC and STL suburban concerns and build a narrow statewide coalition to win.

2) Roy Blunt is not exactly beloved and he will either be a mediocre popular incumbent in 2022 or an open seat. If Trump wins  I would expect at least some initial hype for Missouri Senate.

I did not include Florida because Bill Nelson basically lost on his own accord.

[jamestroll]

North Dakota is certainly the most unrealistic because, as you said, there are no populous metropolitan areas.
As for the other, we'll need to see first which suburbs prove to be more hospitable: Saint Louis & Kansas City or Indianapolis?

If only Johnson County was located in Missouri

But seriously even with that, Platte and Clay counties are quite elastic and could swing hard Democratic against a weak GOP challenger. Largest challenge to a Missouri Democrat is that Jefferson County has become hopeless and St Charles County may have trended left relative to the state but has harsh demographics for Democrats.

There have been some promising results in the Indianapolis suburbs but they are not enough.

I give the slightest edge to Missouri.