IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[jamestroll]

I don't think it's a far more likely flip than KS or TX, but I do think it's somewhat more likely. GA-R and MT probably flip before IA, so I think it's probably seat 52 or 53. I don't think IA is a Toss-Up state in general, since we can't ignore that the national environment is (or at least seems to be) very good for Democrats. I think Ernst is very slightly favored (thanks to IA becoming increasing Republican-leaning compared to the rest of the country), but the idea that she would massively overperform Trump or become "the next Grassley" was always far-fetched, in my opinion. We'll see what happens, but if Biden wins by 8 or more nationally, I doubt Ernst wins by more than a narrow margin, and she could lose.

I agree that this thread will be a mess regardless of the result. Then again, so will the threads for MT-SEN, NC-SEN, and probably several more.

I agree with this, actually. I’d say it’s seat 52 (after MT) or 53 (after MT/GA-R), I just don’t see seats 54-57 (KS, TX, SC) not being very close if IA actually flips. Guess I should have put it that way. I get that the idea of Ernst outperforming Trump by 5+ points was foolish (although several people who mock others for this prediction said the same about Peters in MI, so pot and kettle or something...), but I also don’t think she’ll significantly underperform him (maybe 1-2 points or so, but not more than that).

I will definitely move IA-SEN 2022 from Likely to Tilt/Lean R if Ernst loses while other Republicans in competitive races survive. If it was solely due to the environment, she wouldn’t be in a worse position than someone like Cornyn (and I’m still not entirely convinced that she is, even if it’s hard to ignore some of the polling).

I do not believe IA Sen 2022 will even have much discussion lol.

[jamestroll]

Why is Atlas so obsessed with this state, lol.

Because unlike other hard red states it has shown some ability to elect democrats statewide and to congressional races really.