Illinois will NOT trend heavily Republican

[jamestroll]

So many people on this forum think that Illinois will tend heavily Republican because ... reasons.. MUH MIDWEST.. muh Rauner won! muh Kirk won in 2010!..

Well guess what: that is not going to happen!

First for those of you who are in the "demographics are an ironclad destiny" club (who seem to be the biggest proponents of Illinois becoming a GOP stronghold).. y'all obviously have not looked into the states demographics!

The state is more diverse compared to other Midwestern states. The black population is around 15%, Hispanic population is around 17% and the Asian population is around 6%. It looks much more like the nation as a whole compared to Missouri, Michigan, Iowa, etc.

And the state has a large amount of whites with college degrees.



Look how the state sticks out like a sore thumb in the Midwest!

Once upon a time there was a divide between Cook County Suburbs and Chicago. Now it is just a slightly less shade of Democratic blue (or Atlas red) in the Cook County suburbs. I fully expect the same thing to happen in places like DuPage County, Illinois. Mark Kirk was not able to win DuPage County even while Tammy Duckworth was able to do well in downstate Illinois for a Democrat.

Chicagoland reminds me a lot more like coastal metros than it does St Louis and other Midwestern metros.

Plus many areas downstate are quite receptive to the Democrats. St Clair County, for instance, will likely remain Democratic under either new or old coalitions. Sure the "new" Democratic coalition will likely have margins in St Clair County shaky for Democrats but still fairly solid.

Yes Chicago has lost population but downstate is also suffering quite bad.

Now with all that being said the state is still very elastic. Dare I say the GOP has a better chance of winning a constitutional office in Illinois than Virginia. This is due to elasticity and the state of Illinois has consistently long had corruption and fiscal issues. So every so often a Republican will sneak in. But they often get blown out for re-election. Rauner will probably do better than Kirk and could win re-election in a better year for the GOP but he will likely suffer due to the Democratic blizzard next year.  Pat Quinn could lose his bid for Attorney General also.

But overall the state has literally perfect demographics to remain solidly Democratic. What am I missing here? Why is the general consensus having the state trend heavily GOP in the future?

[jamestroll]

I would also like to note that I would expect the Midwest to be to the GOP in the future like it was to the Democrats in the past. Basically consistent but sometimes shaky margins for the GOP Presidential candidate and the opposition party (Democrats in the future) doing decent to well down ballot.

And Illinois would be the Democratic sore thumb instead of Indiana being the Republican sore thumb.

Just because a region is trending a certain way does not mean every single state will.

[jamestroll]

I will have every prediction out of New Hampshire as solid Democratic until people stop saying Illinois will trend solid Republican.

I do not understand why everyone thinks New Hampshire and Illinois will become GOP strong holds.

[jamestroll]

To respond to topic of the thread, I do think the Democrats are at their peak support in this state.

Why?

[jamestroll]

Nope.  Astrology says different.

[jamestroll]

https://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/downstate-illinois-secession-history/Content?oid=34519694

also I often note that the IL Sen contest in 2016 should be scary for the GOP.  More so than the Presidential contest even if the collar counties were closer for Duckworth v Kirk.

[jamestroll]

Rubio would have made Illinois a single digit Democratic victory. Kasich would've made it seriously competitive.

In a national landslide of a Republican popular vote victory I do agree the state could flip. But this site seems to think it will become as Republican as Indiana and Missouri.

[jamestroll]

Apparently Illinois will remain a quasi swing state down ballot due to incompetent Democrats and presidential voting patterns not extending down the ballot yet in the collar counties.

Once they do it will be a disaster for the GOP there. This could become the nations most Democratic state.

By the way without Cook County:

Trump defeats Clinton 49.6 to 43.3. Trump could not even break 50%.

Kirk defeats Duckworth 49.2 to 45%. lol!!!!

For the special election for Comptroller.. Munger (R) defeated Chicago City Clerk Mendoza 56% to 38%.

Now without Cook County and the collar counties:

Trump defeats Clinton 55 to 37. Similar margin as Missouri and Indiana! Both states Democrats need to hold to  retake the senate next year!

Kirk defeats Duckworth 51.9 to 42.3. Similar to Indiana Senate 2016.

Munger defeats Mendoza 56 to 38. So on this contest it was similar to Illinois without Cook.

This does suggest the state is still a quasi swing state on the state level but if presidential voting patterns extend down the ballot in the collar counties the Republican Party of Illinois is over.

And to many democratic friendly areas down state for it to ever counter in any significant way.

[jamestroll]

I think eventually the population of Illinois outside of Cook county and the collar counties will eventually overtake that of Cook and the collar counties. Once this happens, I think we'll start seeing Illinois trend Republican. By the way, I don't think this happening anytime soon but I do think it will eventually occur. 

Before I go into anything else.. I would like to ask:

Um... why would anyone want to move to downstate Illinois? lmao

[jamestroll]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

[jamestroll]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Both states will be titanium Democratic in the 2020s!

One thing I worry about now is that Pritzker seems like a walking time bomb and Biss would have such a large financial disadvantage that Rauner could either come close or win. This entire site would proceed to say Illinois will trend solidly GOP in 2020 because Hillary wont have this "home state" advantage. lmao.

[jamestroll]

I honestly do believe that Illinois could potentially vote as heavily Democratic as California in 2020. By a 30 point margin!

Your IL theory might be correct, but your NH one is horse hooey.

Both states will be titanium Democratic in the 2020s!

One thing I worry about now is that Pritzker seems like a walking time bomb and Biss would have such a large financial disadvantage that Rauner could either come close or win. This entire site would proceed to say Illinois will trend solidly GOP in 2020 because Hillary wont have this "home state" advantage. lmao.

Get a new hobby, dude.  It's weird.

No it is not weird. I am very concerned about Midwestern Democrats and find it appalling how some many Midwesterner's have been brainwashed to think NAFTA is the cause of their dire circumstances. NAFTA, if anything, did good for us!

You guys here are the ones who are to obsessive about little stuff. I am not obsessive.

[jamestroll]

Hey guys! Look how Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb in the rust belt in this regards.

[jamestroll]

That is  to show Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb. In the Midwest. Anyway I will not argue about this topic anymore. This form seems so obsessed with Illinois and New Hampshire become in Republican states. And also we have too many threads about the Missouri Senate race.

[jamestroll]

That is  to show Illinois sticks out like a sore thumb. In the Midwest. Anyway I will not argue about this topic anymore. This form seems so obsessed with Illinois and New Hampshire become in Republican states. And also we have too many threads about the Missouri Senate race.

Agreed. It is Safe R.

Nope it is still a total toss up and am genuinely unsure who will win it.