Which blue state Republican gubernatorial seats can the GOP keep?

[jamestroll]

I am not very familiar with a lot of these states but I would start out Massachusetts and Vermont and Lean to Likely Republican. Vermont is quite elastic and retail politics can work there well. Charlie Baker has had no major errors to my knowledge and Massachusetts seems to like having one Republican in high office. That did not save Scott Brown in 2012 but Gubernatorial contests do not equal Senate contests and Baker has seemed to connect with the electorate better.

Hogan seems to be decently popularly with black voters but he could get booted out quite quickly if they show up to the polls and reflexively vote 9 to 1 Democratic in a poor climate for Republicans and white voters in Maryland may not vote Republican enough to save him. But I would say the race tilts to Hogan at this time.

Rauner in Illinois is interesting. He is the most endangered GOP Blue State incumbent but I am beginning to get the feeling that Democrats are getting overconfident in this contest.  Yes his approvals are underwater but unfortunately he has nearly unlimited resources. Kirk lost big but gave off an upstate politician aura while needing to win downstate Illinois big to win. Rauner is not as bad in that regard. Basically Rauner's path to victory is to solidify downstate Illinois while regaining support in the counties around Cook County. Looks tough on paper but it is certainly doable.