MO - Remington: Hawley 37%, Wagner 16% in GOP Primary

[jamestroll]

Hawley is not a pushover for McCaskill - he won by more than 20 points last year, running ahead of Donald Trump. McCaskill is doomed or very close to doomed against either Hawley or Wagner.

past election victory margins afford virtually no guarantee of future election margins. Koster won his attorney general re-election in 2012 by double digits but that did not save him in 2016.

The candidates and the campaigns Democrats ran in MO last year was literally the most pathetic I have ever ever seen.  Even Koster's campaign was quite pathetic past labor day. He got way to over confident and not on the aggressive enough. It may not be entirely his fault he lost but it is his own fault he lost by six points.

Kander was really the only Democrat who ran a good campaign but was brought down by the rest of the ticket and winning a Senate race would already be an uphill climb.

so basically, no.. McCaskill would not be doomed against Hawley and I think Wagner would be stronger against her.

[jamestroll]

Hawley is not a pushover for McCaskill - he won by more than 20 points last year, running ahead of Donald Trump. McCaskill is doomed or very close to doomed against either Hawley or Wagner.

past election victory margins afford virtually no guarantee of future election margins. Koster won his attorney general re-election in 2012 by double digits but that did not save him in 2016.

The candidates and the campaigns Democrats ran in MO last year was literally the most pathetic I have ever ever seen.  Even Koster's campaign was quite pathetic past labor day. He got way to over confident and not on the aggressive enough. It may not be entirely his fault he lost but it is his own fault he lost by six points.

Kander was really the only Democrat who ran a good campaign but was brought down by the rest of the ticket and winning a Senate race would already be an uphill climb.

so basically, no.. McCaskill would not be doomed against Hawley and I think Wagner would be stronger against her.

Koster ran the best campaign any Dem could in a red state picking up endorsements from the NRA/farm bureau, campaigning heavily in rural areas. He just got swamped up by the top of the ticket.

Endorsements tend to be quite overrated and post September I noticed he got quite lazy and not on the aggressive and became quite overconfident.

Plus taking 500,000 from Hillary Clinton did not help either.. oh and lets not forget that radio ad Obama did.

During the GOP primary fight Koster should have ran a few ads to show his accomplishments in the attorney general's office. I do believe that would have helped him significantly.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill's path to victory is simply and largely out of her own control.

1) Trump needs to stay unpopular nationwide and neutral in Missouri.

2) The GOP needs to get overconfident about the race.

If those two things happen, McCaskill has even odds of winning at least.

[jamestroll]

and and lets not forget that in a low of these down ballot races the incumbent often wins due to name recognition and as long as they perform their duties and do not get into controversy it is very hard to defeat down ballot incumbents.  Not saying it never happens though. Democratic incumbent did indeed lose the Superintendent of Public Instruction election in 2016 in Indiana.

Two Democrats won statewide in Kentucky in 2015.. likely due to incumbency with Grimes for Secretary of State and name id with Beshear for Attorney General.

[jamestroll]

What's up with all these new Missourians here lately.


And no I never said McCaskill was safe so you are need to stop putting words in my mouth.

[jamestroll]

Having done extensive work for numerous Missouri-based clients the last cycle, I can corroborate some but not all of these numbers. I haven't been involved but have no doubt in my mind that the strong pushes being made for Hawley to run have been in response to internal polling. Wagner is much weaker statewide than many initially expected and I have been hearing that her advisors are pushing hard for her to stay in her seat, which some believe could be put in play itself if the cycle favors Dems. If I were advising the DCCC I would be actively pushing to recruit Jason Kander for Wagner's seat, which he performed incredibly strongly in during his statewide run if I recall correctly.

Why on earth would we use Jason Kander for MO-02? He clearly is not interested and within the boundaries of MO-02 there are elected Democrats who could make a good play for that seat.

It is a GOP leaning seat but not overwhelmingly Republican especially locally.