MO - Remington: Hawley 37%, Wagner 16% in GOP Primary

[The Other Castro]

Josh Hawley - 37%
Ann Wagner - 16%

With Steelman and Wasinger:

Josh Hawley - 30%
Ann Wagner - 14%
David Steelman - 7%
David Wasinger - 2%

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http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2017/05/ros-lehtinen-retirement-sets-stage-for-big-2018-battleground-220052

[KingSweden]

I think Claire would be favored over Hawley, Wagner would be favored over Claire

[heatcharger]

Excellent news.

[Ebsy]

Hawley has no business running for the Senate and would probably be the easiest for McCaskill to beat. The big story here is that Wagner is very weak among statewide Republicans.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hawley is not a pushover for McCaskill - he won by more than 20 points last year, running ahead of Donald Trump. McCaskill is doomed or very close to doomed against either Hawley or Wagner.

[The Other Castro]

McCaskill is not doomed, and anyone that says so doesn't know what they're talking about. She may not be favored right now, but to say that she's gaurenteed to lose is absurd.

[Kamala]

Is Hartzler considering running? She's the most Akinesque of the possible candidates.

[GlobeSoc]

count on the missouri gop to serve up a good meme

[BuckeyeNut]

Another opportunity for McCaskill to rat the Republican primary and pull out a win.

[Maxwell]

wow that's not good for Wagner. She'll have to spend a ton of resources to knock out Hawley should he run - this poll seems to indicate that as likely - and then face McCaskill with much higher negatives.

[jamestroll]

Hawley is not a pushover for McCaskill - he won by more than 20 points last year, running ahead of Donald Trump. McCaskill is doomed or very close to doomed against either Hawley or Wagner.

past election victory margins afford virtually no guarantee of future election margins. Koster won his attorney general re-election in 2012 by double digits but that did not save him in 2016.

The candidates and the campaigns Democrats ran in MO last year was literally the most pathetic I have ever ever seen.  Even Koster's campaign was quite pathetic past labor day. He got way to over confident and not on the aggressive enough. It may not be entirely his fault he lost but it is his own fault he lost by six points.

Kander was really the only Democrat who ran a good campaign but was brought down by the rest of the ticket and winning a Senate race would already be an uphill climb.

so basically, no.. McCaskill would not be doomed against Hawley and I think Wagner would be stronger against her.

[BuckeyeNut]

Another opportunity for McCaskill to rat the Republican primary and pull out a win.

Yeah, good luck with that. You are going to need it badly this time, even more so than in 2012.

Also, Hawley might be a pretty bad candidate, but he's no Akin. Wagner hasn't even announced her candidacy yet and she has raised a lot of money, but no one really knows whether Hawley will run or not. If he does, it's not like he will have an easy time winning the GOP primary. Wagner doesn't have much name recognition statewide, but that should change very soon.

Opportunities are opportunities. I didn't mean to imply it'd be easy, just that it's possible.

[henster]

Hawley is not a pushover for McCaskill - he won by more than 20 points last year, running ahead of Donald Trump. McCaskill is doomed or very close to doomed against either Hawley or Wagner.

past election victory margins afford virtually no guarantee of future election margins. Koster won his attorney general re-election in 2012 by double digits but that did not save him in 2016.

The candidates and the campaigns Democrats ran in MO last year was literally the most pathetic I have ever ever seen.  Even Koster's campaign was quite pathetic past labor day. He got way to over confident and not on the aggressive enough. It may not be entirely his fault he lost but it is his own fault he lost by six points.

Kander was really the only Democrat who ran a good campaign but was brought down by the rest of the ticket and winning a Senate race would already be an uphill climb.

so basically, no.. McCaskill would not be doomed against Hawley and I think Wagner would be stronger against her.

Koster ran the best campaign any Dem could in a red state picking up endorsements from the NRA/farm bureau, campaigning heavily in rural areas. He just got swamped up by the top of the ticket.

[Xing]

Doesn't matter, McCaskill has a <0% chance of beating any Republican with a pulse.

[DrScholl]

Interesting that there were no general election numbers seem to have been included.

[jamestroll]

Hawley is not a pushover for McCaskill - he won by more than 20 points last year, running ahead of Donald Trump. McCaskill is doomed or very close to doomed against either Hawley or Wagner.

past election victory margins afford virtually no guarantee of future election margins. Koster won his attorney general re-election in 2012 by double digits but that did not save him in 2016.

The candidates and the campaigns Democrats ran in MO last year was literally the most pathetic I have ever ever seen.  Even Koster's campaign was quite pathetic past labor day. He got way to over confident and not on the aggressive enough. It may not be entirely his fault he lost but it is his own fault he lost by six points.

Kander was really the only Democrat who ran a good campaign but was brought down by the rest of the ticket and winning a Senate race would already be an uphill climb.

so basically, no.. McCaskill would not be doomed against Hawley and I think Wagner would be stronger against her.

Koster ran the best campaign any Dem could in a red state picking up endorsements from the NRA/farm bureau, campaigning heavily in rural areas. He just got swamped up by the top of the ticket.

Endorsements tend to be quite overrated and post September I noticed he got quite lazy and not on the aggressive and became quite overconfident.

Plus taking 500,000 from Hillary Clinton did not help either.. oh and lets not forget that radio ad Obama did.

During the GOP primary fight Koster should have ran a few ads to show his accomplishments in the attorney general's office. I do believe that would have helped him significantly.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill's path to victory is simply and largely out of her own control.

1) Trump needs to stay unpopular nationwide and neutral in Missouri.

2) The GOP needs to get overconfident about the race.

If those two things happen, McCaskill has even odds of winning at least.

[jamestroll]

and and lets not forget that in a low of these down ballot races the incumbent often wins due to name recognition and as long as they perform their duties and do not get into controversy it is very hard to defeat down ballot incumbents.  Not saying it never happens though. Democratic incumbent did indeed lose the Superintendent of Public Instruction election in 2016 in Indiana.

Two Democrats won statewide in Kentucky in 2015.. likely due to incumbency with Grimes for Secretary of State and name id with Beshear for Attorney General.

[Devout Centrist]

Oh my god, they're going to blow it again!

[Dr. Arch]

lmao, is McCaskill entrenched?

[MT Treasurer]

lmao, is McCaskill entrenched?

Lol, McCaskill will never be entrenched. As long as she is the Democratic incumbent, this seat will always be the most likely "red" state to flip.

Also, I'm not sure it's the Republicans who are "overconfident" about this race, considering that some people here are equating Hawley with Akin and believe McCaskill is favored to win reelection.

[Heisenberg]

Why is Hawley considered weak?

He was just elected to his current post, so announcing a run for higher office only months after winning his current office just looks so nakedly ambitious. Also, he's pretty extreme and polarizing, and would have less crossover appeal than Wagner, who's super popular in her suburban STL district.

[Figueira]

Let's not get too cocky about McCaskill, folks.

[jamestroll]

What's up with all these new Missourians here lately.


And no I never said McCaskill was safe so you are need to stop putting words in my mouth.

[Pollster]

Having done extensive work for numerous Missouri-based clients the last cycle, I can corroborate some but not all of these numbers. I haven't been involved but have no doubt in my mind that the strong pushes being made for Hawley to run have been in response to internal polling. Wagner is much weaker statewide than many initially expected and I have been hearing that her advisors are pushing hard for her to stay in her seat, which some believe could be put in play itself if the cycle favors Dems. If I were advising the DCCC I would be actively pushing to recruit Jason Kander for Wagner's seat, which he performed incredibly strongly in during his statewide run if I recall correctly.